Francisco Alvarez 2025 Player Outlook: Carries Risk With Declining Power Metrics
1 min agoNew York Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez had a disappointing 2024 season and should be considered a risky No.1 catcher in standard leagues heading into 2025. Alvarez showcased high power upside during the 2023 season as he went deep 25 times and held a .437 SLG through 123 contests. Under the hood, he generated a 45.1% hard-hit and 12.8% barrel rates, which were promising metrics in his first full big league campaign. However, last summer, the former top prospect had a disappointing season as he hit just 11 home runs across 100 games. He posted a mere .237/.307/.403 slash line. He saw his power metrics drop significantly. He generated an underwhelming 42.0% hard-hit rate and 6.7% barrel rate. In addition, the backstop generated a low .358 xSLG, which placed him in the 21st percentile among qualified hitters. The 23-year-old also did not provide much value in points leagues, given his hefty 25.1% K rate. However, he did draw walks at a solid 8.8% rate. While Alvarez missed time due to a torn UCL, he struggled to remain consistent in the batter's box when he was healthy. The one positive for Alvarez is that he is the clear No.1 catcher in Queens, as both options behind him, Luis Torrens and Luis De Los Santos, have not had any extended success in the major leagues. This means that the young backstop will continue to have starting opportunities in the starting nine. Fantasy managers should be careful when targeting him as a No.1 catcher at his 150.17 ADP on the NFBC, especially given the stark drop in power production. However, given his young age and the power upside he has shown in the past, he does have a path to return to form in 2025 but does carry some inherent risk, given the underwhelming metrics.