January 31, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll wrote a tale of two halves last season after 2023's breakout performance. The 24-year-old was a top-five pick on most platforms following 25 home runs and 54 steals in '23, but mechanical issues yielded early struggles. Changes in his swing load, stride, and hand level were observable as his batted-ball metrics slipped. We saw his pop-up and chase rates skyrocket while his barrel and pull rates slid. Through 85 games, Carroll hit just .210 with two home runs and 21 total extra-base hits. Then he hit a pair of doubles on July 5 and would homer three times over the following week, leading to 20 total homers (37 XBH) and a .256 average across his final 73 contests. Despite being on base fewer times, Carroll still ran and totaled 35 swipes on the year. Given how he finished the year and the problems rooted in solvable mechanics rather than his history of shoulder injuries, Carroll once again stands as a viable first-round pick. Splitting the middle ground between first-half horrors and a 40-homer pace in the second half, many projection systems give Carroll around 25 HRs with 40 SBs. Can the young star put a full season together and quiet the doubters? Drafters won't feel certain but the fantasy ceiling is undeniable, hence his top-10 early NFBC ADP and RotoBaller rank.--Nick Mariano - RotoBaller