January 6, 2025

The top free agent starting pitcher heading into the 2024-25 offseason, Corbin Burnes found a new home in the southwest after inking a six-year, $210 million dollar contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks. In some ways, Burnes was his typical self in 2024. He finished the season with a 15-9 record along with a 2.92 ERA and 3.77 K/BB, all strong numbers. However, Burnes posted just a 23.1% K rate last season, just 0.5% above league average and pedestrian by his standards. What gives? The default is to think something is up with his cutter, Burnes' most famous pitch, but the cutter is what Burnes uses to induce soft contact. It looks like the curveball is to blame. Burnes used his curveball a career-high 21.5% of the time last season, but his swinging strike rate was just 14.6%, a 4% reduction from 2023. He also lost about two inches of break and drop with the pitch, meaning it just wasn't moving like it had been in the past. Burnes is now on the wrong side of 30, so this could be age-related decline. One thing is for certain, Burnes will struggle to repeat a sub-3 ERA unless he gets his strikeouts up. It took a .269 BABIP and 75.5% LOB rate to get him the 2.92 last season, and one shouldn't expect such good fortune to repeat, even for a pitcher as talented as Burnes. He's a top-10 starter, but it might be worth holding out for a round or two on Burnes this year, rather than paying full price on draft day.--Elliott Baas