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Ariel Cohen, creator of ATC projections, analyzes players with elite plate discipline based on his mPDI model. These players could be sleepers or breakout performers in 2020 fantasy baseball.
Last year, I unveiled a new weighted index statistic for hitters – mPDI, which mirrors a famous quote by Hall of Fame pitcher, Greg Maddux:
“The key to pitching is to have the ability to throw a strike when they’re taking and throw a ball when the hitter is swinging.”
If we consider the inverse of Maddux’s quote, the key to hitting would be to swing when the ball is in the zone, and to lay off when the ball is out of the zone. That sounds easy enough right?
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mPDI Matrix
Luckily, my mPDI statistic for hitters attempts to emulate this. mPDI (for hitters) is a metric which quantifies the percentage of the time in which hitters demonstrate this plate discipline skill.
Each and every pitch thrown at a baseball game can be classified into one of the following tracked six outcomes:
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Outcome C | Outcome D | Outcome E | Outcome F | |
| Zone? | Out of Zone | Out of Zone | Out of Zone | In Zone | In Zone | In Zone |
| Swing? | Swung On | Swung On | No Swing | Swung On | Swung On | No Swing |
| Contact? | No Contact | Contact Made | No Swing | No Contact | Contact Made | No Swing |
Named after the legend, and closely resembling his quote - The Maddux Plate Discipline Index (mPDI) for hitters is defined as:
Outcome C + Outcome D + Outcome E
Total Pitches
An awful mPDI would be one in the low .600s, while an elite one would be near .750. An mPDI of .685 was the average for 2019.
Prior to the 2019 season, I used mPDI to uncover a number of plate discipline breakouts such as Jeff McNeil and Josh Bell. In this article, I’ll give you a few player candidates to look out for in the 2020 season.
Cavan Biggio (2B, TOR)
First, it might help to glance over at the mPDI leaderboard for 2019. Below are the top plate discipline batters with a minimum of 175 plate appearances:
| Player | mPDI |
| Jordan Luplow | .764 |
| Luke Voit | .755 |
| Cavan Biggio | .754 |
| George Springer | .750 |
| Curt Casali | .747 |
| Khris Davis | .746 |
| Christian Walker | .744 |
| Joey Votto | .742 |
| Mike Tauchman | .742 |
| Brandon Belt | .740 |
| Yandy Diaz | .738 |
| Guillermo Heredia | .738 |
| Carlos Santana | .737 |
| Brandon Nimmo | .737 |
| Anthony Rendon | 736 |
| Corey Seager | .736 |
| Robbie Grossman | .736 |
| Juan Soto | 735 |
| Marcus Semien | .735 |
| J.D. Davis | .735 |
| Chance Sisco | .734 |
| Ryan McMahon | .733 |
| Josh Donaldson | .733 |
| Jason Castro | .731 |
| Freddie Freeman | .730 |
Cavan Biggio, son of Hall of Famer Craig Biggio has a very distinct offensive player profile - power, speed and patience. Throughout the minors, he has shown the ability to hit for a moderate amount of power, as well as to steal a fair number of bases. ATC has projected the sophomore to amass 8 homeruns while swiping 6 bags. He is a legitimate full season 20/20 threat – a valuable player for fantasy baseball – especially in rotisserie formats.
But what grabs my attention is his plate discipline. In 604 plate appearances between the majors and minors in 2019, Biggio walked a fantastic 105 times – for a 17.4% BB% rate.
2019 MLB Walk Rate Leaders:
- Mike Trout 18.3%
- Yasmani Grandal 17.2%
- Alex Bregman 17.2%
- Cavan Biggio 16.5%
- Daniel Vodelbach 16.5%
- Rhys Hoskins 16.5%
- Juan Soto 16.4%
- Justin Smoak 15.8%
Only Mike Trout, Yasmani Grandal and Alex Bregman had a higher walk rate than Biggio in the majors last year (minimum 300 PA).
| Name | PA | mPDI | Outcome C | Outcome D | Outcome E |
| Cavan Biggio | 430 | .754 | .486 | .039 | .229 |
Looking deeper at Cavan’s plate discipline outcomes, it his Outcome C which is eye opening (out of the zone, no swing). For players with more than 200 PA, no one had a higher Outcome C component. Biggio hardly swings at would-be balls.
Unfortunately, his batting average is well below where it should be. ATC projects him for a mere .236 BA this season with a rather large 27% strikeout rate. But look out – if he is able to cut down on his swings and misses, Biggio is a star in the making. So far in 2020, he has 2 HRs and a steal – picking up right where he left off. Keep your eye on this plate discipline stud.
Oscar Mercado (OF, CLE)
| Name | PA | mPDI | Outcome C | Outcome D | Outcome E |
| Oscar Mercado | 482 | .726 | .398 | .033 | .294 |
While Biggio might excel in his out of zone skills, Oscar Mercado is elite within the strike zone. His Outcome E (in the zone, swung on, contact made) is one of the best in baseball. Similar to Jeff McNeil – Mercado is superb at recognizing when pitches are in the zone. While swinging at would-be strikes, he is able to make contact 9 out of 10 times. He is a true Maddux plate discipline stud!
In only 438 at bats in 2019, Oscar Mercado hit 15 homers and stole 15 bases. He exhibited more speed in the first half, but more power in the second half. ATC projects Mercado for 6 HRs, 8 SBs and a .264 batting average in the short season.
Thus far Mercado is struggling mightily with just three hits in 35 at-bats, but his BABIP is extremely unlucky to start 2020. Mercado, a speedster, is used to BABIPs in the low .300s. This season he is at just a .154 mark, which means that he will be on the base paths in short order.
Give it a little time if you own him in fantasy, or if another owner is impatient – now is the time to pounce on this mPDI gem.
George Springer (OF, HOU)
| Name | PA | mPDI | Outcome C | Outcome D | Outcome E |
| George Springer | 556 | .750 | .440 | .054 | .256 |
George Springer is hardly a surprise breakout player. The 7-year veteran already has 163 major league homers and a World Series title. But with an elite mPDI of .750 (4th in all of baseball), I felt the need to write a few words about him.
The name of his game is OBP. Among qualified players in 2019, Springer had the 15th highest on-base percentage at .383. He does so by both hitting for average, as well as walking at an elite pace (12% BB% in 2019). When he does make contact, he does so with authority. He had a 45% hard contact rate last year finishing with a 156 wRC+ (he is 56% better than the average hitter).
I personally own Springer on a number of my fantasy teams. Even though he was an early-round pick in 2020, I still believe that he is undervalued. Batting leadoff on Houston, Springer is a lock for a 100 run season in a normal year. mPDI further verifies my intuition about the Astros’ stud outfielder.
Christian Walker (1B, ARI)
| Name | PA | mPDI | Outcome C | Outcome D | Outcome E |
| Christian Walker | 603 | .744 | .422 | .058 | .263 |
Christian Walker broke out in 2019 with 29 HRs in 529 at-bats. In addition, he also stole eight bases - which made him extremely fantasy relevant, particularly in rotisserie leagues.
In 2019, Walker only hit for a .259 batting average. We might have glanced quickly over him, if not for a .744 mPDI. A top Maddux Plate Discipline Index highlights his superb plate discipline. Like Cavan Biggio, his strikeout rate is on the high side, but so is his walk rate. While the strikeouts will cap his batting average, an 11% walk rate will prop up his on-base percentage.
Superior to one aspect of Biggio’s skill set, Walker’s power stroke is legit. He now has shown a greater than 20% homerun to flyball rate in each of his prior two seasons, while his flyball percentage remains high. Walker also lights it up on the Statcast leaderboard with elite exit velocity. 25-30 HRs are what Christian is capable of in a full year of play, and he has been getting the lions share of playing time thus far in 2020. To start the season, he has amassed 13 hits in his first 41 at-bats – a .317 BA.
Walker isn't due for the magnitude of breakout that Josh Bell exhibited in 2019, but I would still keep an eye out for this streaky Arizona first baseman.
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