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The Pittsburgh Steelers finally started Russell Wilson, and he dominated the New York Jets. What is the Steelers fantasy football outlook for Week 8 and rest of 2024? John breaks it down.
The Pittsburgh Steelers officially named longtime NFL veteran Russell Wilson the starter for their team after six weeks of holding him out due to injury and having Justin Fields as the starter. Wilson proved that both QBs, newly signed in the offseason, are capable of leading this squad to victory.
Week 7 was... different, though. Rather than narrowly defeating the opposing team, Pittsburgh embarrassed the New York Jets. In front of a national audience on Sunday Night Football, they dominated in all phases of the game, routing New York 37-15 and spoiling the debut of newly-signed Jets WR Davante Adams.
So is Russ ready to cook with his new team, and can we expect a season full of great things from Mr. Unlimited?
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Will Russell Wilson Continue To Dominate?
For fantasy, it's tough to say. While he scored three total touchdowns and put up 24.9 PPR fantasy points, it's worth noting that the Steelers, and every offense under current offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, relies on the run first and foremost. In addition, the Jets turned the ball over twice, giving Pittsburgh's offense more opportunities.
New York was also 3-for-10 on third downs, 1-for-2 on fourth downs, and committed five penalties for 50 yards. It's much more difficult for defenses to function when their offense turns the ball over and fails to convert often on third and fourth downs, so the Steelers offense got a big boost.
When you had the Jets at 4-3 last year without Davante Adams pic.twitter.com/zdyaxmWRTk
— Dave Rappoccio (@DrawPlayDave) October 21, 2024
The Jets simply are not a good football team right now. They're 2-5, and against any team with a decent defense, they've completely faltered this season. Wilson clearly showed that he's the man in Pittsburgh and will retain the starting job, but performances of 24 or more fantasy points may not necessarily be commonplace.
It's easy to get swept away in hype, but it's also good to pump the brakes sometimes and manage expectations. As a fantasy manager, your first concern should be what you think is most likely to happen, not what you wish would happen. Wilson completed just 55.2% of his passes and had his fair share of gaffes.
that's my quarterback💪#RussellWilson #HereWeGo pic.twitter.com/SyFdcO9XgR
— Benstonium (@Benstonium) October 21, 2024
It only takes one or two games for people to forget or dismiss the past, but he's a 35-year-old QB who's lost much of his best trait, his mobility, and often didn't play well in Denver last year. It's not that he's bad, but expecting him to put up high-end QB1 numbers each week might be a stretch.
Mid to high-end QB2 numbers for the rest of the season are very reasonable, though bust games simply due to low passing attempts wouldn't be a surprise. It's unlikely that Wilson will have rushing touchdowns every game, either.
Has Russ Unlocked George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, and Najee Harris?
He's certainly better for Pickens than Justin Fields. And Kenny Pickett. And Mason Rudolph. And Mitchell Trubisky. Yes, Pickens is a diva, yes he has character concerns, yes he's prone to tantrums, but he's had absolutely awful quarterback play for most of his career. He gets at least a solid QB now.
🚨WILD: #STEELERS WR GEORGE PICKENS GRABBED #COWBOYS DB JOURDAN LEWIS HELMET AND SLAMMED HIM TO THE GROUND.
😳😳😳
Lewis & Pickens BEEF HAS ARRIVED
pic.twitter.com/G8XmpNlo90— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) October 7, 2024
Luckily for fantasy managers, there are plenty of diva wide receivers who are fantasy studs, like Eagles WR A.J. Brown. Hopefully, he avoids suspensions, and he seems to behave better when he gets the ball often and can put up good numbers. Probably reminds people of Antonio Brown.
ah yeah that's why you let George Pickens get away with a certain degree of nonsense pic.twitter.com/tenIStmhqJ
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) October 21, 2024
The next big play happens, though, and everything is forgiven. He's a highly talented wideout. The thing holding him back at this point will be the run-first offensive philosophy the Steelers employ, but his target share should make up for that. He's likely a lock for seven or more targets in most games, and his big-play ability means he can produce well.
GEORGE PICKENS HOW!?
📺: #NYJvsPIT on NBC/Peacock
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/omj7bvk7Jx— NFL (@NFL) October 21, 2024
He's set up for a great season. He caught five passes on nine targets for 111 yards and a touchdown. He may need a few more catches per game to sustain that level of production, but 22.1 PPR fantasy points is nothing to scoff at. He's Pittsburgh's clear WR1 and doesn't have much competition for work.
With the departure of fellow WR Diontae Johnson to the Carolina Panthers in the offseason, the path cleared for the former Georgia Bulldog to dominate targets and receiving yards for his team, and he's done so to this point. He has 53 targets and 474 receiving yards on the season. The second-place WR in black and gold has just 21 targets and 203 yards.
He's an easy WR2 moving forward with upside for more.
Tight end Pat Freiermuth got three targets last game. That's not great. Also, MyCole Pruitt returned to play and took snaps away from Freiermuth. OC Smith is a death sentence for tight end production, as Kyle Pitts managers from 2023 know. Smith's tight ends are an ugly committee.
As far as RB Najee Harris goes, he should have pretty much the same role. He gets a boost if the offense overall continues to be more effective (and it probably will). Expect a modest bump in rushing production and better chances weekly at scoring touchdowns.
What Will The New Offense Look Like Under Wilson?
Smith, who was hired as the OC after being ousted from Atlanta's head coaching job, loves to pound the rock. Pittsburgh's offense features run-heavy game plans reminiscent of the World War II days of professional football.
Only a few teams run the ball more than they pass it
Teams with the lowest percent of plays that are passes ⤵️
Ravens - 46.5%
Steelers - 46.8%
Commanders - 48.5%
Eagles - 48.7% pic.twitter.com/KWBIS54nAM— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) October 26, 2024
Only Baltimore runs the ball at a higher rate than Pittsburgh. The other three teams on that list also have hyper-mobile quarterbacks -- Wilson is not the stud runner of the football he once was, so he doesn't benefit from this style of offense. It will cap his ceiling moving forward.
The Steelers O probably won't look much different. Smith is rigid in his game plans and doesn't deviate much from them. Games with tons of passing attempts will probably be rare, given that the team averages 33.6 rush attempts per game, the second-highest in the league, compared to just 27.1 passing attempts per game, tied for the least.
Fantasy-wise, he may even be a downgrade from Justin Fields, who had much more rushing upside, which is a cheat code in fantasy. Rushing yards earn 2.5 times the points of passing yards, and rushing touchdowns earn 1.5 times as many as passing yards.
The Steelers are currently ranked 32nd in passing attempts.
They are 2nd in rushing attempts.
Do you like Arthur Smith's offense so far? pic.twitter.com/ej1E3Bno5P
— Fields Betta (@Gaige_returns) October 22, 2024
Expect more of that. Wilson's value could hinge on how many deep passes he's able to complete this season. The black and gold brigade will face the New York Giants in Week 8, a team reeling from the loss of their best offensive lineman, Andrew Thomas. Expect another stomping.
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