RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~218 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~267
ANALYSIS: The Steelers DST's average fantasy scoring with T.J. Watt playing was 9.2 points per game. That would have ranked as IDP4. Without Watt, however, it plummeted to 2.1 points per game.
If Watt can stay healthy for the entire season, he is projected for 10 to 20 sacks and a couple of forced fumbles, fumble recoveries, and interceptions.
Not only that, but he also elevates the play of his teammates. Cam Heyward and Alex Highsmith, as good as they are in their own right, actually make more sacks and more impact plays on average when Watt is active.
While rookie Nick Herbig might start the season as a rotational backup, he looked good in the first game of the preseason. Offenses have to devote so many resources to stopping the three-time All-Pro.
Watt has had injury problems for a couple of years. However, he usually only missed a couple of games or left games early. The Steelers' defense is thus a little bit risky. They do face a slew of teams with weak offensive lines and sack-prone quarterbacks. This could maximize their defensive line's upside.
According to my DL strength of schedule projections, the Steelers have the fifth-easiest schedule for pass rushers. This includes matchups against the second-worst offensive line in the league (the Rams) and two matchups against the Browns, who were allowing 3.33 sacks per game when Deshaun Watson was starting.
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