RADIO
Welcome to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series for the 2024 season! Each week, I will select one stat, choose a few pitchers with strong metrics and poor metrics, and analyze them to determine how their future performance may change. I haven't focused on strikeouts yet, so this week I'll look at swinging-strike rate (SwStr%)
SwStr% is the percentage of pitches a hitter sees that they miss (or the percentage of pitches a pitcher throws that induce swinging strikes). It is not as directly applicable as strikeout rate to fantasy production because strikeouts hold direct fantasy value instead of missed strikes. However, pitchers are generally more likely to succeed if they can miss bats and keep the ball out of play. Further, pitchers who can miss bats can generate more strikeouts.
Pitchers can be valuable in fantasy by pitching to contact, but those with strong SwStr% have an advantage, particularly in a volatile environment. Identifying pitchers who can consistently miss bats is a sound way to hunt for fantasy value. With that in mind, let's take a look at some SwStr% starting studs and duds!
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SwStr%Studs for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 12, 2024.
Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves
5-1, 2.95 ERA, 30.6% Strikeout Rate, 15.5% SwStr%
Chris Sale's fantasy legacy is well-established; he has been excellent when healthy but has not been able to stay healthy for the last few seasons. 2024 has looked like a throwback season, as he has a 2.95 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 30.6% strikeout rate in seven starts and 42 2/3 innings pitched. His 15.5% SwStr% is the second-highest of his career. Should fantasy managers trust his comeback?
The first encouraging sign is Sale's fastball velocity. His four-seamer and sinker are both up about one MPH from last season to 94.8 MPH and 94.0 MPH. Not only is this an indication that he is healthy, but it has led to a SwStr% jump on his fastball from 9.1% to 10.8%.
The main driver behind Sale's overall SwStr% is his devastating slider. His career SwStr% with the pitch is 16.4%, and this season he has reached a career-high 20.8%. He has always thrown the pitch frequently, but Sale has used his slider as his primary pitch this season with a 43.3% usage, which is also a career-high.
Make that 10 Ks for Chris Sale! pic.twitter.com/KgQPs1IVZz
— MLB (@MLB) May 9, 2024
Sale's slider has always made him a strikeout threat, but health has sometimes limited his ability to reach his potential. That does not appear to be the case in 2024, as both his fastball and slider are firing on all cylinders. He hasn't come close to 150 IP since 2019, which may make some fantasy managers nervous. However, he has looked so legit that only a truly outrageous trade offer would convince me to let him go.
Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres
5-2, 2.19 ERA, 32.4% Strikeout Rate, 14.9% SwStr%
Dylan Cease's fantasy output has varied widely in each season of his career, but one thing that has remained consistent is his strikeout skills. The 28-year-old has looked good with his new team while showing off the strikeout skills, going 5-2 with a 2.19 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP, a 32.4% strikeout rate, and a 14.9% SwStr%. Should fantasy managers be convinced that his bounce-back season will persist?
Cease's underlying choices support his strong SwStr%. His SwStr% on his fastball has barely changed, but he has added 1.2 MPH on the pitch and has gotten much better overall results. He has also swapped some curveball usage for slider usage, which is his best swing-and-miss pitch. He has a career-high SwStr% with his slider at 22.5% and has seen a big jump in his curveball SwStr% from 8.3% to 13.0%.
Dylan Cease's Overpowering Stuff.
9Ks thru 6 scoreless. pic.twitter.com/A1zFJW7HVx
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 8, 2024
The strikeouts look legit, but other things leave room for questions. First, his 89.6-MPH average exit velocity is only slightly lower than his 2023 mark and is in the 31st percentile of baseball. He has also induced a 17.5-degree launch angle, which is higher than his 15.7 career mark. His 3.6% HR/FB rate is way lower than his 11.6% career value and does not align with his batted-ball profile.
Additionally, Cease's low WHIP can be doubly attributed to a minuscule .179 BABIP and a career-low 8.6% walk rate. Walks have always been an issue in his career, making it tough to believe his current performance.
Cease has always showcased his strikeout skills but has also battled walk issues and inconsistencies. His walk rate is suddenly lower and he has gotten excellent batted-ball results despite a questionable batted-ball profile. Cease has room to regress while still returning plenty of fantasy value, but his underlying metrics and uneven history make me think he is a potential sell-high candidate.
SwStr% Duds for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 12, 2024.
Javier Assad, Chicago Cubs
3-0, 1.70 ERA, 20.5% Strikeout Rate, 6.5% SwStr%
Javier Assad came onto the fantasy scene last season serving multiple roles with the Cubs. He has served as a starter this season and is 3-0 with a stellar 1.70 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 20.5% strikeout rate. His 6.5% SwStr% is not stellar and is one of the lowest marks in the league. How has he found success and can fantasy managers rely on it to continue?
Javier Assad has allowed two runs or fewer in all seven of his starts in 2024 🔥 pic.twitter.com/bQGno0Z7Ip
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) May 5, 2024
Assad relies on three different types of fastballs, none of which top out at 92 MPH. He uses a pitch-to-contact approach with an 85.4% contact rate, which is one of the highest in the league. He primarily throws a sinker and throws a cutter, trying to limit the damage on the contact he gets.
This has been an effective approach, as Assad's average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 60th and 73rd percentiles of baseball, respectively. His 15.9-degree launch angle is ok, but he has limited damaging contact with a .244 BABIP and a 4.0% HR/FB rate. His 4.23 SIERA tells a different story, but I believe there is enough evidence to suggest his approach can continue to be effective.
Assad isn't the flashiest fantasy pitcher due to his low strikeout rate, but he still brings a lot to the table. He induces weak contact and avoids damaging contact, which often puts him in positions to earn wins. I think Assad is a high-floor middle-to-back-of-the-rotation fantasy pitcher, particularly in points leagues where pitching deeper into games offsets low strikeout totals.
Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants
3-4, 3.38 ERA, 18.6% Strikeout Rate, 7.5% SwStr%
Logan Webb is the epitome of a pitch-to-contact, ground-ball pitcher. That has continued to play out in 2024, as he is 3-4 with a 3.38 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, an 18.6% strikeout rate, and a 7.5% SwStr%. should the low SwStr% and strikeout rate worry managers?
Webb has never been a strikeout pitcher, and while his current SwStr% is a career-low, nothing has changed about his pitch mix or pitch movement. Further, his batted-ball profile resembles his career numbers, allowing hard contact on the ground with a 1.5-degree launch angle in one of baseball's most pitcher-friendly parks.
One concerning item is Webb's jump in WHIP. His 6.2% walk rate is slightly higher than his career average but is still solid. However, his BABIP is a career-high .347. His 3.41 SIERA, which adjusts for park factors, suggests he is fine, but his 4.67 xERA is the closest it has been to his first two seasons when he struggled. This is supported by his 1.24 ERA and .292 BABIP at home but 5.92 ERA and .410 BABIP on the road.
Despite having limited strikeout upside, Webb has found great fantasy success as a ground-ball pitcher throughout his career. This strategy has not worked outside the confines of Oracle Park so far this season. The splits are so stark that I expect some regression to occur overall, which should benefit him. I think Webb is worth holding onto in leagues at this time and should not necessarily be shopped as a sell candidate.
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