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Welcome to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series for Week 15 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season! Today we'll be taking a look at Jack Flaherty, Cristopher Sanchez, Tyler Anderson, and Carlos Rodon. Each week, I will select one stat, choose a few pitchers with strong metrics and poor metrics, and analyze them to determine how their future performance may change.
I have analyzed a few skill estimators this season and this week I will look at expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP). FIP focuses solely on events a pitcher has the most control over: strikeouts, unintentional walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs. It does not consider balls in play. xFIP calculates a pitcher's FIP, but it uses projected home run rate instead of actual home runs allowed. Home run rate is determined by that season's league average HR/FB rate.
The main difference between FIP and xFIP is that xFIP is based on the notion that pitchers have more control over how many fly balls they allow than how many fly balls leave the park. The specific calculation can be found on MLB's website. The trade deadline is rapidly approaching in fantasy leagues, so let's take advantage of the remaining time to analyze some Studs and Duds!
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xFIP Studs for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 30, 2024.
Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers
5-5, 3.24 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 3.04 FIP, 2.29 xFIP
Jack Flaherty showed early in his career that he could be a high-end fantasy option and he has returned to that form in 2024. The 28-year-old is 5-5 with a 3.24 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 33.0% strikeout rate in 15 starts and 89 innings pitched. His 2.29 xFIP supports his success and is the lowest among qualified pitchers. What has gone well for Flaherty, and can fantasy managers expect it to continue?
A few things have changed this season to help boost Flaherty's xFIP. The first is his increased control. Flaherty owns a career 8.5% walk rate, which has been a detriment throughout his career. He has posted a career-low 4.0% walk rate this season, which is a key component of xFIP. Interestingly, he has produced his lowest zone strike rate at 46.6%, but he has been helped out by a career-high 34.4% chase rate.
This has also benefitted his strikeouts. Flaherty has gotten more chases and has seen his overall swinging-strike rate jump to 14.2%. This could be fueled by the fact that Flaherty is getting more movement on his three main pitches: four-seam fastball, slider, and knuckle curveball. He has seen swinging-strike upticks for each of those pitches, with the biggest increase coming in his slider (which he has thrown more).
Jack Flaherty, Filthy 87mph Slider. 😷 pic.twitter.com/9SG68MLmh5
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 19, 2024
The one additional thing to note is the discrepancy between Flaherty's FIP and xFIP. He has allowed as many fly balls as usual with a 33.0% rate, but his 18.3% HR/FB rate is higher than his 15.0% career mark. This hurts his FIP but is neutralized by xFIP. These results do seem a bit unlucky, as Flaherty has been slightly better than league average at allowing hard contact and pitches his home games in a HR-suppressing park.
Overall, Flaherty has been an excellent fantasy option this season. He may not have the most opportunities for wins, but he has gotten a ton of strikeouts and chases, which have helped him limit walks and keep runners off the basepaths. He has certainly been a fantasy All-Star given his average draft position coming into the season was outside the top 300 picks.
Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies
6-3, 2.41 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 2.37 FIP, 2.99 xFIP
Cristopher Sanchez emerged as a potential fantasy staple last season and has taken a step forward this season, going 6-3 with a 2.41 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 21.0% strikeout rate in 16 starts and 93 1/3 IP. His 2.37 xFIP is slightly better than his current ERA and is in the top 10 among qualified starters. Can he continue to serve as a useful middle-of-the-rotation fantasy option?
Sanchez's pitching strategy lends itself to a low FIP and xFIP. This is because he is a pitch-to-contact, ground-ball pitcher. He has a 79.3% groundball rate with a career-low 0.1-degree launch angle. Sanchez is primarily a sinker-ball pitcher and has done a good job locating his secondary pitches in the bottom of the zone. Consequently, his 60.3% groundball rate is one of the highest among qualified starters.
In fact, he is so good at keeping the ball on the ground that his 2.99 xFIP is higher than his 2.37 FIP. This is because his 18.0% flyball rate and 2.0% HR/FB rate are much lower than league average. Sanchez's groundball skills are so elite that they more than makeup for his lack of strikeouts.
Sanchez's overall approach has led to success, but it is important to note that it may not always work. Sanchez hasn't allowed hard contact but does have a .316 BABIP, which is higher than league average. This is partly due to a less-than-average defense behind him. Obviously, this hasn't impacted his results too much, but it is something fantasy managers should keep in the back of their minds.
Sanchez doesn't overpower hitters and doesn't rack up strikeouts, so he is easy to overlook. However, he has proven himself to be an elite groundball pitcher and has pitched deep into games, earning nine quality starts in 16 starts with an average of almost six IP/GS. Sanchez may not be quite as valuable in roto leagues but he should still continue to serve as a high-floor fantasy option.
xFIP Duds for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 30, 2024.
Tyler Anderson, Los Angeles Angels
7-7, 2.63 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 4.76 FIP, 5.28 xFIP
Tyler Anderson has been a surprise fantasy contributor this season, compiling a strong 2.63 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and a 15.9% strikeout rate in 16 starts and 99 1/3 IP. However, his 5.28 xFIP is almost three runs higher than his ERA. This is a vast discrepancy; should fantasy managers be wary of regression in the second half of the season?
2024 AL Pitching WAR Leaders
Tyler Anderson (4.0)
Garrett Crochet (3.8)
Erick Fedde (3.6)
Seth Lugo (3.6)All Leaders: https://t.co/moXSTTYNyO pic.twitter.com/ir8rSZIZuE
— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) June 25, 2024
One major contributor to his high xFIP is his poor walk rate. Anderson has had issues with walks the last two seasons and this season he has posted a career-high 11.2%. Despite this, his WHIP isn't awful at 1.22. This is because he has gotten excellent results on balls in play. Anderson has managed a career-low .225 BABIP, which is much lower than his career mark of .283.
These results only partly make sense. On the plus side, Anderson has done a great job limiting hard contact. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 87th and 76th percentiles of baseball, respectively. He is a flyball pitcher, with a 17.9-degree launch angle and a 45.9% flyball rate. His low BABIP means he has generated a lot of weak fly balls, which turn into easy outs.
On the negative side, his batted-ball profile this season is almost identical to last season, yet the results have been very different. Anderson had a 5.43 ERA with a .301 BABIP in 2023. The highly discrepant results are puzzling, but the fact that Anderson's numbers last season were more in line with his career averages makes me think that his current production is not sustainable. Either way, Anderson's high flyball rate negatively factors into his xFIP.
Anderson's success this season seems like an anomaly given his career numbers and overall profile. He hasn't struck anyone out, has walked a lot of batters, and has gotten a very low BABIP. He has induced a lot of weak fly balls, but he has had a similar batted-ball profile before with much less success. All of this points to impending regression. Fantasy managers could attempt to sell high, or they can simply hold onto Anderson and reap the benefits until things start going south.
Carlos Rodon, New York Yankees
9-5, 4.42 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 4.61 FIP, 4.53 xFIP
Carlos Rodon has been one of fantasy's more frustrating players. He started the season well but has gotten progressively worse and is now 9-5 with a 4.42 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 22.9% strikeout rate in 17 starts and 93 2/3 IP. His 4.53 xFIP is aligned with his ERA, suggesting that he is pitching to form. This would not bode well for fantasy managers, so what can they expect from him for the rest of the season?
Walks haven't been a problem for him, but strikeouts have. Rodon has shown elite strikeout skills at times in his career and he has always relied mainly on a fastball and slider, with slight use of a changeup. His off-speed pitches have been effective, with a 17.6% swinging-strike rate on his slider and a 21.7% swinging-strike rate on his changeup.
Rodon's problems have stemmed from his fastball. Rodon has typically worked the pitch up in the zone, which has resulted in weak flyball contact when effective. This season, he has left his fastballs more in the middle of the plate, which has led to poor results. He has allowed a 94.1-MPH exit velocity on the pitch with a 22-degree launch angle. This has resulted in a 16.0% HR/FB rate. He has also only managed a 9.3% swinging-strike rate with the pitch.
Rodon's success hinges on his fastball, and it has not delivered this season. His strikeout rate has dropped because his fastball hasn't gotten as many swings-and-misses, his HR/FB rate has climbed because he has allowed hard contact in the air, and his expected stats on the pitch are all worse than his current results. Rodon's underlying results do not favor him because of the results from his fastball.
Allowing a lot of hard contact in the air is not a recipe for success in Yankee Stadium. I think Rodon will continue to struggle if he cannot get better results with his primary pitch. Unless he can fix his fastball, he will need to alter his pitch mix in order to get better overall results.
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