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Welcome to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series for the 2024 season! Each week, I will select one stat, choose a few pitchers with strong metrics and poor metrics, and analyze them to determine how their future performance may change. Last week, I looked at avoiding contact with a swinging strike rate. This week, I'll look at a metric that indicates how much damaging contact pitchers allow: barrels per batted-ball events (Brls/BBE%).
A barrel is a batted-ball event whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum of .500 batting average and a 1.500 slugging percentage. In other words, a barrel is a hit profile tied to the most damaging contact a pitcher can allow. MLB.com has more information and a nice visual to further explain.
I have analyzed the quality of contact and launch angle throughout this season, and Brls/BBE% ties those together. This metric is more telling than Brls/PA because it only considers balls that are hit. Allowing damaging contact leaves little room for fantasy success, so let's take a look at some Studs and Duds!
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Brls/BBE% Studs for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 19, 2024.
Luis Severino, New York Mets
2-2, 3.48 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 4.7% Brls/BBE%
Luis Severino has been searching for a fantasy return to form after dealing with injuries over the past several seasons. He has altered his game and has found success in 2024, going 2-2 with a 3.48 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 20.1% strikeout rate in nine starts and 51 2/3 innings pitched. Part of his success could be due to his low 4.7% Brls/BBE%. Can Severino continue his bounce-back season?
Severino has done a good job limiting hard contact this season with an average exit velocity in the 81st percentile of baseball and a hard-hit rate in the 53rd. He has also posted a career-low 7.9-degree launch angle, which may be the biggest contributor to his avoidance of barrels.
Severino has stopped throwing his slider as frequently, which was his go-to swing-and-miss pitch but put pressure on his elbow. He has replaced the slider usage with sinker and sweeper usage, both of which have generated three-degree launch angles. Not only have these additions benefitted his Brls/BBE%, but they have also led to a career-high 55.8% groundball rate.
Luis Severino, Wicked 85mph Sweeper. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/Hl6lLQMTh9
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 13, 2024
Severino's changes do leave him with less room for error. He has swapped strikeouts for contact, as his 82.0% contact rate is in the high range. His BABIP sits at a solid .248, but his WHIP has risen. This is not just due to allowing more hits but walks as well. His 10.5% walk rate is higher than his 7.3% career mark.
Severino may not be the power strikeout pitcher he once was, but his new approach has led to success and can be sustainable. He has pitched to contact but has kept the ball on the ground and has avoided hard contact. This can come back to bite him when he allows too many runners for free, but he should continue to provide fantasy value if he can stick to his new plan.
Reese Olson, Detroit Tigers
0-4, 2.09 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 5.4% Brls/BBE%
Reese Olson has yet to earn his first win of the season, but he's done everything else very well. The 24-year-old is 0-4 with a 2.09 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 21.7% strikeout rate in eight starts and 47 1/3 IP. Further, his 5.4% Brls/BBE% is among the best for starting pitchers. Olson showed fantasy promise last season; can he continue to take a step forward this season?
Reese Olson is the only MLB pitcher to have a sub-2.25 ERA but an 0-4 or worse record over his first 8 starts of a season (since ERA became an official stat in both leagues in 1913). pic.twitter.com/i5Exgk6JOP
— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) May 15, 2024
Olson's batted-ball profile presents conflicting evidence. He has allowed hard contact, with his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate both in the 17th percentile of baseball. On the positive side, he has done a decent job keeping the ball out of the air with an 8.4-degree launch angle.
Olson's groundball rate is in the 89th percentile of baseball, so his hard hits haven't been elevated enough to be considered barrels. He relies frequently on a combination of sliders, changeups, sinkers, and curveballs and generally works down in the zone.
Olson has also done a good job limiting contact in general with a 72.8% contact rate. His .246 BABIP is in line with his .256 career mark, further supporting his low Brls/BBE%.
Olson's lack of win luck will have to change at some point given how well he has pitched. He allows hard contact but keeps it on the ground and avoids contact overall. This has enabled him to avoid damaging contact and see strong results overall. I think Olson should continue to be a high-floor fantasy option.
Brls/BBE% Duds for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 19, 2024.
Dean Kremer, Baltimore Orioles
3-3, 3.72 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 13.7% Brls/BBE%
Dean Kremer has once again provided decent fantasy numbers. The 28-year-old is 3-3 with a 3.72 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 25.3% strikeout rate while averaging nearly six IP/GS in eight starts. His 13.7% Brls/BBE% is not decent and is one of the highest in baseball. Kremer has defied his underlying numbers for several seasons; could 2024 be the same?
Nothing looks different in Kremer's batted-ball profile upon initial inspection. He has allowed roughly league-average hard contact and his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are close to his career averages. His 14.1-degree launch angle is in line with his 14.7-degree career average. This comprises a 29-degree launch angle on his four-seamer, which he throws up in the zone, and low launch angles on his other pitches.
Things get more confusing as you dig deeper. Despite a similar batted-ball profile and contact rate from 2023, Kremer's Brls/BBE% has almost doubled. His 13.7% is much higher than his 9.5% career mark. His 3.65 SIERA is also in line with his ERA and suggests his batted-ball profile is fine. This makes me think regression is coming. On the flip side, his BABIP is a career-low .200 and is much lower than his .284 career average.
Kremer has outperformed his batted-ball profile over the past few seasons but this season has been a little different. His ERA is in line with his batted-ball profile, yet his Brls/BBE% is much higher than his career average. On the other hand, his BABIP has been much lower despite no significant changes in his batted-ball profile.
Kremer's skillset has always lent itself more to points leagues and I think that still applies. I would call him a sell-high candidate for interested fantasy managers because his underlying metrics are conflicting. However, much like in previous seasons, I think he is also worth holding onto and starting if or until regression starts coming.
3-2, 4.17 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 10.9% Brls/BBE%
Freddy Peralta has flashed fantasy greatness throughout his career but has also hit frustrating bumps. His 2024 season encapsulates that, as he is 3-2 with a 4.17 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 31.2% strikeout rate in nine starts and 49 2/3 IP. The strikeout rate is great, but the ERA and 10.9% Brls/BBE% are not. What should fantasy managers make of Peralta's performance?
Peralta's batted-ball profile does not suggest a high Brls/BBE%. He has done a great job avoiding hard contact with an average exit velocity and hard-hit rate in the 88th and 72nd percentiles, respectively. He is a flyball pitcher with a 17-degree launch angle, but that is fine given the soft contact he allows. He has also avoided contact as indicated by his high strikeout rate and his 70.2% contact rate.
This indicates to me that Peralta has pitched well overall, but his mistakes have been costly. This can be hashed out through his game log. Peralta has logged several starts with low exit velocities and low hard-hit rates but one or two barrels. It isn't surprising to see Peralta suffer barrels when he allowed hard contact, but it is surprising to see them when he allowed soft contact.
Overall, it looks like Peralta has had some bad luck with his Brls/BBE%. He hasn't allowed hard contact but has allowed a surprisingly high rate of barrels. His strikeout skills remain elite and I expect his strong batted-ball profile to eventually impact his peripheral metrics. I'm not sure that Peralta has performed so poorly that fantasy managers would consider trading him away, but I would jump at the opportunity to acquire him if it presented itself.
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