X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Pitcher Predictability Analysis for Fantasy Baseball

There are different ways to have success as a pitcher. You can have wipe-out stuff, pinpoint command, superior deception, or an arsenal of different pitch types that make it tough for a hitter to see what is coming next. The best pitchers will have all of those things going for them.

For this fantasy baseball analysis, I wanted to focus on that last point - an unpredictable arsenal. Most starters have at least three pitches in their arsenal, but plenty of pitchers dedicate more than 80% of their arsenal to just two different pitches, making them quite predictable. On the flip side of that, you have some guys with five or six different pitches that they are comfortable with throwing - that makes them very tough to predict.

It is definitively not true that you need a deep arsenal to have success in the league. If you have two great pitches with great command, that is more than enough to have success in the big leagues. It does seem true that having a deep pitch arsenal gives a pitcher a wider safety net. Some nights you just don't have the feel for certain pitches, and having a few extra to fall back on can really help a pitcher avoid those disastrous outings.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

The Process

I used a Python script for this in conjunction with the baseball savant pitch-by-pitch dataset. This dataset is a massive table of data with one row for every single pitch thrown in Major League Baseball games. Every data point you could think of is in this dataset, and it opens the door for limitless analysis with a coding language like Python.

My script works like this:

  • Pick an individual pitcher
  • Isolate that pitcher from the dataset, giving us a table of all of their pitches thrown
  • Order the table chronologically
  • Skip forward to the pitcher's 251st pitch of the year
  • From then on, for every pitch, look at the count and handedness of the batter being faced on every pitch
  • Look back to the past times the pitcher has been in that exact situation (say an 0-2 count against a left)
  • Find the pitcher's most commonly thrown pitch in that situation
  • Predict that he will throw that pitch
  • Compare that prediction to what the pitcher actually threw
  • Calculate what percent of the time the prediction was correct
  • Repeat for every single pitcher that threw at least 1,500 pitches last year

Long story short, we just tried to predict every pitch type based on what the pitcher threw in similar situations in the past, and then we see which pitchers we were right and wrong about most often. If you are interested in seeing the Python script I wrote, you can view that here on Google colab, a Python notebook environment hosted on the Google Cloud. Just collapse the "Setup" code blocks with the arrow at the top and then look at the "Example of how it works" block.

 

The Results

Here is the results table, it includes every pitcher we looked at. The "score" is just the percent of the time the prediction was right, so the lower the score - the less predictable the pitcher was.

Cleveland's Aaron Civale proved to be the league's least predictable pitcher last year. He threw six different pitches at a clip above 10% (cutter, four-seamer, curveball, splitter, slider, and sinker). Baseball Savant has a nice feature of showing how a pitcher distributes his pitches in all different counts, you can check out Civale's plot here for a visual of just how tough he was to predict.

The rest of the top five perfectly shows that this is not a foolproof way of finding good pitchers. Mike Foltynewicz, Merrill Kelly, Jon Lester, and Matt Harvey were four of the worst pitchers in the entire league last year despite their unpredictability. All of those names threw at least four pitches over 10% of the time. The problem was just the small detail of their pitches not being very good. It's quite possible that the deep arsenal is the reason these pitchers are even staying in the league. If Foltynewicz was out there only throwing his four-seamer and slider last year, he probably would not have been able to stay in the rotation as long as he did.

If you sort the score column the other way around, we'll see the most predictable pitchers. Turns out that you see some pretty good pitchers on this side of things.

Logan Gilbert had a pretty successful rookie year despite coming in "last place" in this analysis. Maybe we should not judge rookies the same way as veterans here, since it would have taken some time for the hitters to learn his arsenal and to potentially capitalize on the limitations, but nonetheless, we proceed. Gilbert threw a four-seamer 61.5 of the time and a slider 23.9%, leaving just 14.6% of the time dedicated to his changeup and curveball. It was pretty easy for a hitter to just expect a fastball in neutral and advantageous counts, and then sit on the slider when they were behind. But this is a good example that just because a hitter knows what pitch is coming, that surely doesn't mean they'll be able to hit it.

Triston McKenzie, Carlos Rodon, Robbie Ray, Clayton Kershaw, and Trevor Rogers also show up here in the top-15. These pitchers were all pretty much the same mold as Gilbert, throwing a fastball a high percentage of the time to get ahead, and then using a breaking ball to attempt to put hitters away.

Here's a table you can use to search for a pitcher's name and see their arsenal breakdown. I limited this to only pitchers that threw at least 1,500 pitches last year to save some memory.

 

Conclusions

I think the biggest conclusion here is that we can overestimate the depth of the arsenal. The quality of the pitches turns out to be much, much more vital to success than the quantity of them. Most fantasy players probably understood that before, but I think this table really drives it home. There does not seem to be any correlation whatsoever between depth of arsenal and success on the field.

That said, I don't think it's proper to throw this out entirely. While the Aaron Civale types (pretty bland "stuff" wise, but quite successful on the mound) are somewhat rare, they can exist because of this. Civale makes his living by throwing a bunch of different pitches in all different counts and locating them well. A young pitcher coming into the league and having five pitches in his bag gives him a lot of different things to try out and more options to work with as he figures out what works at the big league level and what doesn't.

This could be good "tiebreaker" material in the fantasy baseball world. Despite what we see above, I would still rather roll the dice on a pitcher with five pitches rather than three if everything else is more or less equal.

Thanks for reading, if anybody has any questions about Python or requests for the full data extracts, I can be reached on Twitter @JonPGH



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Caleb Williams1 hour ago

Bears Reiterate That Caleb Williams Will Start In Week 11
Mikko Rantanen2 hours ago

Grabs Four Points Against Kings
Aliaksei Protas2 hours ago

Enjoys Multi-Point Outing Versus Maple Leafs
Patrick Kane2 hours ago

Notches Two Points In Overtime Win
Blake Lizotte3 hours ago

Suffers Another Injury
Pyotr Kochetkov3 hours ago

Suffers Injury Versus Utah
Caleb Jones3 hours ago

Hurt On Wednesday
Darcy Kuemper3 hours ago

Exits With Injury Wednesday
LeBron James3 hours ago

Makes History With Third Consecutive Triple-Double
Jaxson Hayes3 hours ago

To Be Re-Evaluated In 1-2 Weeks
Walker Kessler3 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Thursday
P.J. Washington4 hours ago

Considered Doubtful For Thursday
Luka Doncic4 hours ago

Expected To Remain In The Lineup Thursday
DeMar DeRozan4 hours ago

Exits Win With Back Problem
Aaron Rodgers4 hours ago

Leaning Toward Return In 2025
Grayson Allen16 hours ago

Ruled Out Versus Kings
D'Angelo Russell16 hours ago

Suiting Up On Wednesday
Bradley Beal16 hours ago

Unavailable Wednesday
DK Metcalf18 hours ago

Puts In Full Practice On Wednesday
Henrik Norlander18 hours ago

Needs Strong Showing At Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Michael Kim18 hours ago

Playing Well Down The Stretch
Nick Taylor18 hours ago

Returns To Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Jhonattan Vegas18 hours ago

Playing Well Heading To Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Matthias Schmid18 hours ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Patrick Rodgers18 hours ago

Heads To Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Mackenzie Hughes18 hours ago

Debuts At Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Maverick McNealy18 hours ago

Seeking Back-To-Back Top-10 Finishes In Bermuda
Lucas Glover18 hours ago

In A Groove Ahead Of Bermuda Championship
Andrew Putnam18 hours ago

A Player To Watch In Bermuda
PGA18 hours ago

Nico Echavarria In Top Form Heading To Bermuda
Jusuf Nurkic19 hours ago

Back On Wednesday Night
Anfernee Simons19 hours ago

Won't Suit Up Against The Timberwolves
Robert Williams III19 hours ago

Resting In Rematch With Minnesota
Deandre Ayton19 hours ago

Out Again On Wednesday
Andre Drummond19 hours ago

Out Sick On Wednesday
Paul George19 hours ago

Won't Play Versus Cleveland
Joel Embiid19 hours ago

Sitting On Wednesday
Tage Thompson19 hours ago

Labeled As Day-To-Day
Mattias Samuelsson19 hours ago

Out Indefinitely
Gabriel Landeskog20 hours ago

Remains Without A Timeline
Jonas Brodin20 hours ago

Considered Questionable For Thursday
Tank Bigsby20 hours ago

Listed As DNP On Wednesday
Andre Drummond20 hours ago

Listed As Questionable On Wednesday
Tyreek Hill20 hours ago

Misses Wednesday's Practice
Hampus Lindholm20 hours ago

Expected To Miss "Weeks"
Jani Hakanpaa20 hours ago

Available On Wednesday
Tee Higgins20 hours ago

Officially Limited On Wednesday
Marcus Smart20 hours ago

Set To Play Wednesday
Seth Jarvis20 hours ago

Set To Miss A Second Consecutive Game
Michael Pittman Jr.20 hours ago

Practicing In Full
Brian Thomas Jr.20 hours ago

Limited On Wednesday
Josh Jacobs21 hours ago

Limited During Wednesday's Practice
Mike Conley21 hours ago

Resting Wednesday Versus Portland
Kirk Cousins21 hours ago

Limited On Wednesday
Najee Harris21 hours ago

Does Not Practice On Wednesday
Christian McCaffrey21 hours ago

Limited On Wednesday
George Kittle21 hours ago

Not Practicing On Wednesday
Brian Robinson Jr.21 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
DK Metcalf22 hours ago

To Be Limited In Wednesday's Practice
Sam LaPorta22 hours ago

Misses Practice, Remains Day-To-Day
J.J. McCarthy23 hours ago

Undergoes Second Knee Surgery
Gardner Minshew II23 hours ago

Will Start In Week 11
Tee Higgins24 hours ago

Won't Practice But Bengals Encouraged With His Progress
Isiah Pacheco1 day ago

Unlikely To Return In Week 11
Younghoe Koo1 day ago

Falcons Sticking With Younghoe Koo As Their Kicker
Nick Hardy1 day ago

Looks To Find Consistency On The Greens In Bermuda
Carson Young1 day ago

Hopes To Carry Recent Form To Bermuda
Brandon Clarke1 day ago

Questionable For Wednesday's Action
Kevin Yu1 day ago

A Name To Watch At Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Marcus Smart1 day ago

Picks Up Questionable Tag Ahead Of Wednesday
Connor McDavid1 day ago

Leads Oilers To Victory With Four-Point Effort
Neal Pionk1 day ago

Records Three Assists In Historic Win
Linus Ullmark1 day ago

Records First Shutout As Senator
Hampus Lindholm1 day ago

Taken Out By A Lower-Body Injury
Sam Bennett1 day ago

Battling An Upper-Body Injury
Lars Eller1 day ago

Returns To Washington
Shohei Ohtani2 days ago

Among NL Silver Slugger Winners
Aaron Judge2 days ago

Headlines AL Silver Slugger Winners
Dante Fabbro2 days ago

Makes Blue Jackets Debut Tuesday
Wander Franco2 days ago

Now Facing Weapons Charges
Travis d'Arnaud2 days ago

Agrees On Two-Year Deal With Angels
Brendon Todd2 days ago

A Hard Sell At Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Greyson Sigg2 days ago

May Surprise In Bermuda
Jacob Bridgeman2 days ago

In For Adventure At Port Royal Golf Course
Mark Hubbard2 days ago

Plays Solid In Bermuda
Andrew Novak2 days ago

Tries To Build Off ZOZO Championship
Daniel Berger2 days ago

Looks To Continue His Consistent Run At Port Royal Golf Course
Justin Lower2 days ago

Looks To Continue His Hot Play At Butterfield Bermuda Championship
2 days ago

Blue Jays, Red Sox To Meet With Juan Soto
Jasson Domínguez3 days ago

Yankees Expect Jasson Dominguez To Have A Big Role In 2025
Carlos Correa3 days ago

Progressing
Carlos Prates3 days ago

Gets Higlight-Reel Knockout Win At UFC Vegas 100
Neil Magny3 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 100
Cortavious Romious3 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Vegas 100
Gaston Bolaños3 days ago

Gaston Bolanos Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Joey Logano3 days ago

Holds On At Phoenix To Win His Third Cup Series Championship
Los Angeles Dodgers3 days ago

Dodgers Considered Favorites For Roki Sasaki
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Falls Short Of The 2024 Cup Series Title At Phoenix
Dusko Todorovic3 days ago

Gets TKO'd At UFC Vegas 100
Wander Franco3 days ago

Arrested On Monday After Altercation
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Lacks Speed Of Other Championship 4 Contenders But Drives Well
William Byron3 days ago

Finishes Third In Phoenix Race And Championship
Miami Marlins4 days ago

Marlins Hire Clayton McCullough As New Skipper
Mansur Abdul-Malik4 days ago

Gets First-Round Finish At UFC Vegas 100
Luana Pinheiro4 days ago

Falls Short At UFC Vegas 100
Gillian Robertson4 days ago

Extends Win Streak At UFC Vegas 100
Gerald Meerschaert4 days ago

Gets Finished At UFC Vegas 100
MMA4 days ago

Reinier de Ridder Gets Submission Win In UFC Debut
4 days ago

Rays Have Interest In Juan Soto
NASCAR4 days ago

Bubba Wallace Is A Top DFS Recommendation With Upside For Phoenix
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Is Expected To Compete For The Title At Phoenix
Joey Logano4 days ago

Is One Of The Favorites To Win At Phoenix
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Could Be A Favorable DFS Option For Phoenix Lineups
Corey Lajoie4 days ago

Corey LaJoie Will Start 20th At Phoenix
Brad Keselowski4 days ago

Is A Solid Recommendation For Phoenix DFS Lineups
Erik Jones4 days ago

Will Start 19th At Phoenix This Week
Carson Hocevar4 days ago

Will Compete For A Top-10 Finish At Phoenix
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Should DFS Players Fade Ty Gibbs At Phoenix?
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Is Chase Elliott A Solid DFS Pick For Phoenix Lineups?
Ryan Blaney4 days ago

The Championship Favorite Despite Qualifying Blunder
William Byron4 days ago

Will Be Strong In Fight For Championship
Austin Cindric4 days ago

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering For Phoenix DFS Lineups?
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Is Great At Phoenix
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Looking To Go Back-To-Back At Phoenix After Championship Snub
Chase Briscoe4 days ago

Can Be Worth Rostering In Tournaments At Phoenix
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Could Contend At Phoenix
5 days ago

Nick Martinez Expected To Accept Qualifying Offer
MLB5 days ago

Roki Sasaki Will Be Posted, Opens Door For 2025 MLB Debut
Nolan Arenado6 days ago

Could Be On The Trade Block
Zach Neto6 days ago

Undergoes Shoulder Surgery, Could Miss Start Of 2025

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP