Pitcher Advanced Metrics Studs and Duds - End of Season Review

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Every week I have selected an advanced stat, chosen two top performers and two under-performers, and analyzed what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. I have covered both Statcast and Fangraphs metrics to help identify hidden value as well as sell-high candidates.

With the final week of the fantasy season upon us, I thought it would be a good time to review some of my takes and analyses from the second half of the season to see what I got right and what I got wrong. Hopefully, some of my analyses helped you reach the fantasy playoffs or even bring home a trophy. However, I also need to own up to the missed takes I inevitably had.

With the grind of the fantasy season nearly over, I am going to reflect on how things went before gearing up for 2022. Let's take a look at two of my biggest studs and duds takes from the second half of this article series. Thank you to those of you who have tuned in throughout the season; I'm looking forward to providing you with more fantasy baseball content in 2022!

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My Statcast Studs

All stats current as of Monday, September 27, 2021.

Jordan Montgomery, New York Yankees

(6-6, 3.49 ERA, 1.24WHIP, 24.7% Strikeout Rate)

This first pitcher made Week 19's chase rate Studs list for me. Jordan Montgomery was implementing an unusual pitch mix successfully, relying heavily on off-speed pitches. This hadn't led to a ton of strikeouts, but did lead to a lot of chases, swings-and-misses on those chases, and an above-average batted-ball profile. As such, I suggested that Montgomery could be a useful middle-of-the-rotation fantasy starter for the rest of the season. He's been more than that since I wrote about him, posting a 2.93 ERA and 25.6% strikeout rate over his last eight starts. Let's take a look at how he's been such a big contributor to the Yankees and fantasy managers down the stretch.

As I mentioned in Week 19, Montgomery continued to rely heavily on his changeup and curveball to keep hitters off balance. He was able to keep his changeup away from right-handed hitters and his curveball in the bottom of the zone while locating his four-seam fastball in the top of the zone. This allowed him to post a solid 15.4% overall swinging-strike rate and a 3.86 SIERA over those starts. The SIERA suggests that he may have gotten lucky during this stretch and his 11.7-degree launch angle isn't great, but Montgomery avoided hard contact (his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 74th and 69th percentiles of baseball, respectively), so he set himself up to do well.

Fantasy managers may tend to undervalue consistent but unflashy players, yet these are the types of players who carry them through the season. Montgomery's ability to get hitters to chase, avoid hard contact, and strike some hitters out gave him a consistent floor in fantasy leagues. Montgomery was a pitcher who I identified to be valuable for the second half, and I hope he paid off for others.

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

(8-12, 4.13 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 26.4% Strikeout Rate)

Tarik Skubal was one of many exciting young players to player a significant role in the big leagues this season. I wrote about him in Week 21 as a barrels/batted-ball event % Dud, claiming that he had given up too much hard contact in the air to be a trustworthy pitcher in re-draft leagues. Since then, Skubal hasn't been great, posting a bloated 4.25 ERA and a 2.12 HR/9 rate over his last seven starts. Let's take a look at what I saw to call this.

As I saw back in Week 21, Skubal's underlying metrics painted a pretty straightforward picture in terms of how he should have been performing. His exit velocity and hard-hit rate are now both in the bottom-13 percent of baseball, and his 14.4-degree launch angle has not paired well with the hard contact. Skubal did post an impressive 30% strikeout rate over those seven starts, but he also gave up a decent amount of contact at 75.8%. Therefore, it makes sense that he has given up so many home runs, which more than offsets his strikeouts. His 3.00 SIERA actually suggests that he got pretty unlucky, but I think the batted-ball profile tells a clear and damning story. To be fair, Skubal's last four starts have been limited due to the Tigers keeping an eye on his innings, but this was simply one more reason to fade him in re-draft leagues down the stretch.

Skubal did look solid at times this season and his strikeout potential makes me interested in him for dynasty and keeper leagues. However, there were too many warning signs under the hood to trust him for the second half of this season. He wasn't awful, but didn't do enough or pitch deep enough to be a fantasy contender late in the season. Hopefully, fantasy managers were able to let go of him before he caused any damage to their fantasy title aspirations.

My Statcast Duds

All stats current as of Monday, September 27, 2021.

Ryan Yarbrough, Tampa Bay Rays

(8-6, 5.30 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 17.9% Strikeout Rate)

Ryan Yarbrough was my other chase rate Stud in Week 19. I liked the amount of chases he was generating and said, "He may offer more value in points leagues than roto leagues, but he shouldn't hurt fantasy managers". Well, I think we all know how things turned out. Since I wrote this, Yarbrough went on to post a massive 8.01 ERA over seven appearances. I was aware of Yarbrough's limitations due to his pitching style, but factored all of that in for my initial diagnosis. What has happened since that led me astray?

The overriding issue here was Yarbrough's lack of command on his cutter, his main pitch. As I mentioned when writing about him previously, most of his chases were coming from his changeup and slider/curveball, which he located effectively. His cutter, on the other hand was left up and in the middle of the plate most of the time with a velocity of 81.9 MPH. That led to a poor .327 batting average against and a .580 slugging percentage on a pitch he threw 41.2% of the time. Simply put, Yarbrough needed to pitch better with his marginal arsenal.

I thought Yarbrough could have been a second-half contributor given his performance at the time and the offense backing him up, but the opposite happened. Yarbrough's off-speed pitches could not erase the damage endured by his cutter. Yarbrough was not the most popular fantasy option as is, but I definitely missed on this one.

Wade Miley, Cincinnati Reds

(12-7, 3.37 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 18.1% Strikeout Rate)

This last one cuts deep, as this pitcher (and my bad take) cost me at least one opportunity to play in a fantasy championship matchup. I wrote about Wade Miley in Week 23 as a strikeout Dud. While he was not striking many hitters out, I looked at the rest of his metrics and came to the conclusion that, "Miley is a pitcher I am going to trust for the fantasy playoffs". That was a big mistake. Miley has made four starts since and allowed at least five runs in three of them. What went wrong for Miley in such a pivotal fantasy stretch?

I will start by saying that Miley has had a great season overall and that even the best pitchers have relative rough patches. Miley has never struck many hitters out, but he has been able to find success due to a solid batted-ball profile. This was the case overall this season, but not in the four-start stretch. Miley allowed seven home runs in those four starts. Consequently, he lasted just 4.5 innings per start as opposed to over 6 that he was averaging. Perhaps even more frustrating was the fact that he struggled against a favorable Pirates lineup. The Cardinals and Dodgers (the other two poor outings for Miley) were tougher matchups, but the Cubs and Pirates were two that he should have done well in.

This one is based more on a small sample size and hits harder for me because it directly cost me. This probably wouldn't have been a big deal if Miley had posted this four-game stretch in the middle of the season. However, it happened when fantasy managers needed him most, making it my biggest miss of the second half.

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