Pitcher Advanced Metrics Studs and Duds - BABIP For Week 18

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week I have selected an advanced stat, chosen two top performers and two under-performers, and analyzed what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. With the second half now under way, I will get back to picking specific metrics to dive into. This week I will focus on BABIP, or batting average on balls in play.

BABIP is rooted in three main components: defense, luck, and talent. Two of these three pieces are more or less out of pitchers' control, so BABIP can cause deviations between expected and reported outcomes. Looking at pitchers with higher or lower BABIPs than their career marks in conjunction with other underlying metrics can help identify players who are more likely to see regression over the course of the second half.

As I have done throughout this series, I will not focus on obvious fantasy studs for this article. The coming weeks will be very important for fantasy managers in establishing playoff chances and rounding out their rosters, so identifying players who could help or hurt your team is huge. Let's take a closer look at some BABIP studs and duds!

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BABIP Studs

All stats current as of Sunday, July 25, 2021.

Anthony DeSclafani, San Francisco Giants

(10-4, 2.87 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .239 BABIP)

This first pitcher is the latest example of the San Francisco Giants' pitcher reclamation projects, bringing the best out of pitchers who have been inconsistent over the course of their careers. Anthony DeSclafani is in the midst of a career season, posting a 2.87 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Further, his .239 BABIP is currently tied for seventh-best among qualified pitchers. Can fantasy managers expect him to continue his stellar performance for the rest of the season?

A few things stand out to me with respect to DeSclafani's low BABIP. The first is that his batted-ball profile isn't all that great. His average exit velocity is in the 41st percent of baseball and his hard-hit rate is in the 31st percent. Generally speaking, balls hit harder have a way of getting through the infield or resulting in more damaging contact. As such, I wouldn't expect DeSclafani's BABIP to be quite so low. His 3.98 SIERA also indicates that he has gotten lucky in general. The second is that DeSclafani is outperforming himself significantly in terms of BABIP. His career mark is .291, which is much higher than his current BABIP. He did spend his most of his career pitching in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park and is now pitching in pitcher-friendly Oracle Park, but I don't think that change of home venue would affect BABIP to that degree.

DeSclafani has been a decent pitcher over the course of his career, but everything seems to be clicking for him this season, including his BABIP. I think this may be more a case of overall regression rather than specifically related to his BABIP. Regardless, his batted-ball profile and career track record make me think that his BABIP is not sustainable. I suppose fantasy managers could attempt to sell-high on DeSclafani, but I also think that we should continue to be a useful fantasy pitcher even if he does experience some regression.

Aaron Civale, Cleveland Indians

(10-2, 3.32 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .250 BABIP)

This next pitcher is having a nice bounce-back season after a disappointing 2020. Aaron Civale and Cleveland are having a nice season overall. Civale has won 10 games with a 3.32 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and a .250 BABIP that is ninth-best in baseball. Given how his 2020 season went, is it reasonable to assume that negative regression may be coming for Civale, or should fantasy managers feel confident in his performance for the rest of the season?

Civale is not an overpowering pitcher, but I do think he can ultimately continue to find success. His pitch arsenal provides a bunch of different looks, which can help offset the fact that he doesn't have huge strikeout numbers. He has thrown six different pitches at least 10 percent of the time this season, and each pitch provides a range of different looks. Further, his contact rate is high (10th-highest in baseball), but his batted-ball profile is middle of the pack/above-average overall, supporting his BABIP in the fact that the contact he has allowed has not been damaging.

All things considered, I think Civale's numbers are legit. He has allowed a lot of contact, but he has a decent batted-ball profile and has kept hitters off-balance with his large pitch mix. I do think his fantasy value is limited due to a lack of strikeouts, but there is nothing in his profile to suggest that he will not be able to provide value to fantasy managers' rotations.

BABIP Duds

All stats current as of Sunday, July 25, 2021.

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

(7-6, 4.37 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .316 BABIP)

We'll now turn our attention to another Aaron who is typically a high-end fantasy pitcher. Things have not gone so well for Aaron Nola this season, who has posted pedestrian surface numbers so far. Specifically, his .316 BABIP is one of the highest in baseball. Should his stats give fantasy managers cause for concern, or can they expect some positive regression?

Fortunately, most signs point to better numbers ahead for Nola. First, he has not allowed much contact; his 73.6% mark is in the top-20 in baseball, his 5.3% walk rate a a career best, and his 29% strikeout rate is solid. Also, his batted-ball profile isn't stellar, but it is above-average. His 3.36 SIERA definitely supports this. Finally, his .316 BABIP is higher than his career .296 mark, so I would expect some regression there, given that he seems to be pitching well under the hood.

Nola has not delivered for fantasy managers to this point, but his underlying metrics offer encouraging signs. Most of his surface metrics, including his BABIP, do not align with his batted-ball profile. Given this contradiction and his career track record as a solid pitcher, I think that Nola could end up being a Stud in the second half.

Frankie Montas, Oakland Athletics

(8-8, 4.34 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, .314 BABIP)

Our final pitcher has had a season similar to Nola's but has had an inconsistent career. Frankie Montas has posted mediocre numbers to this point, but his .314 BABIP is one of the highest in baseball. Should fantasy managers expect better from Montas for the second half, or should it be more of the same?

Like Nola, Montas hasn't allowed a ton of contact this season with a 74.6% contact rate. Unlike Nola, his batted-ball profile does not inspire confidence. His average exit velocity is in the 21st percentile of baseball and his hard-hit rate is in the 13th percentile. His 3.80 SIERA does suggest that his batted-ball profile may not be that bad, but I tend to believe his BABIP given that he has gotten hit so hard. The rest of his expected metrics aren't great either, which does not inspire confidence.

Montas hasn't pitched poorly, but he hasn't pitched great. His BABIP is high, but it is actually a bit lower than his career mark, so I would not expect any sort of regression in relation to his career marks. I don't think there is a ton of action for fantasy managers to take here. He has been a back-of-the-rotation fantasy pitcher this season and the A's have played well overall, so it looks like he could provide some value in favorable matchups for the rest of the season.

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