X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Pierre Camus's Bold Predictions for 2017

By Johnmaxmena2 (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

RotoBaller's Pierre Camus makes his bold predictions for the 2017 fantasy baseball season.

I'm no stranger to making bold predictions, although this is my first go-around in this particular series.

As a fantasy analyst, I always try to take an objective, statistic-based approach. As a fan, I am an unrepentant Marlins apologist and tend to hold grudges against players and teams for decades on end. I would have put Jose Peraza first thing on this list, but Kyle stole my thunder already, much like he did in our latest mock draft (grudge held, mock be damned).

And now, for my bold predictions for 2017. I hope you enjoy the picks.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Bold Predictions for 2017

1. Jake Arrieta takes home another Cy Young award.

Let me start by saying this is completely predicated on Clayton Kershaw's back. If Kershaw pitches a whole season, he's practically a lock. Back issues for a pitcher can be troubling, however, and the Dodgers may play it safe with their ace to keep him fresh for the playoffs. Arrieta, who is known for his elaborate workout routines and dedication to fitness, is entering a contract year in which he somehow must prove that he has earned an extension.

Arrieta already claimed a Cy Young award in 2015 after one of the most dominating second halves a Major League pitcher has ever thrown. He also managed to finish ninth in voting in both 2014 and 2016. Some people will expect a slight letdown after the Cubs broke through to win the title, but Arrieta may be stepping his game up in hopes of a big payday, whether from Chicago or another club. For that reason, I don't think a third-round ADP is too high at all.

2. The best fantasy player on Milwaukee will be Keon Broxton.

Ryan Braun and Jonathan Villar will be just fine - I'm not predicting them to collapse. The ceiling for Broxton is just that high (according to me). Along with every other Brewer, Broxton was given the green light last year and swiped 23 bags in just 207 AB. Where he outdid Villar was his effectiveness on the base paths. Broxton actually finished eighth in MLB with an 85% SB%. Over a full season, it's easy to see how Broxton could reach 50 or more SB. Detractors will point to a .242 average and 36.1% K% to say that there's no way he'll hit at the top of the order or reach base enough to have value beyond 40 steals, max. Fiddlesticks, I say. Broxton was outright bad his first time around the majors, but after a brief demotion he hit .294/.399/.538 in the second half of the season. That OBP is no joke and it will remain high because of his walk rate. Broxton walked nearly 15% of the time as a rookie and consistently walked at a 10% or higher clip across the minors. Broxton could do the same thing Villar did last year, but with even more pop. Oh, and he's available after the 15th round (unless you're in a league with me, in which I will have already taken him).

3. Danny Duffy strikes out more batters than Chris Sale.

Duffy will be more important to the Royals' staff than ever, which gives him a good shot to reach 200 innings. He jumped up to 9.4 K/9 last season and his control numbers continue to improve each season. If Duffy truly experiences a breakout season, he could surpass Sale's total of 233 last year in Chicago. It may not make a huge difference, but Fenway Park had a -5% K% Park Factor compared to Guaranteed Rate Field, just enough to think that Sale could slip outside the top 10 K finishers.

4. Andrew McCutchen will be a top-10 fantasy outfielder.

Making this claim for a former MVP and perennial All-Star doesn't seem too bold, but many are jumping ship on Cutch this season. His stock has been dropping steadily over the last few months, nearly placing him outside the top 20 outfielders in early drafts. While the speed may indeed be gone, don't be surprised if Cutch hits .300 with steady power numbers and shows enough to consistency to outpace players like Nelson Cruz, George Springer, or teammate Gregory Polanco.

5. Welington Castillo will be a top-five fantasy catcher.

Castillo came the closest he's been to being a full-time catcher last season with 113 games in Arizona. A .264/14/68 line is pretty good, but what about now that he's on a team that swings for the fences each and every inning? Castillo hit 19 HR in just 342 AB in 2015 and certainly could break 20 in Camden Yards, where the ball flies out easier than many ballparks. I'm not drafting him before the 15th round because, well, he's a catcher, but I wouldn't consider any catcher not named Posey, Lucroy, or Sanchez before him.

6. Zack Greinke falls off the map completely and out of the top 40 SP.

Blame the Arizona heat all you want, but there are legitimate concerns about Greinke losing his stuff. He has been clocked at 88 MPH on his fastball this spring, as opposed to 93 last year. It's hard to imagine someone a year removed from almost winning a Cy Young falling off so quickly, but Greinke has always been up-and-down. After finished fourth in ROY voting in 2004, he lost 17 games and posted a 5.80 ERA the following season. After winning a Cy Young in 2009, his ERA jumped by two runs and he finished with a losing record the next year. It's taken him a couple of years to full recover each time, but that was when he was in his 20s. Greinke simply may never feel comfortable in Arizona and I think the concerns are real enough that I'm outright avoiding him.

7. Eugenio Suarez outperforms Javier Baez. By a lot.

Baez has a ton of power, but he has also has a ton of holes in his swing (3.9 AB/K). Let's not forget that he doesn't have a starting job as of this moment either. Baez makes a good hold in dynasty leagues, but he shouldn't be starting on any fantasy teams in 2017. Suarez is just one year older than Baez and will hold down third base on a regular basis in Cincinnati. Even if he posts just moderate increases across the board, we're looking at approximately 25 HR, 80 RBI, 85 R and an average around .265. Now imagine if he has a breakout season...

8. The Rockies will make the playoffs.

This is mostly about Colorado's underrated pitching staff. First, I will continue banging the drum for the effectiveness of Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson, and Tyler Chatwood. All had solid years, despite two being rookies and all calling Coors their home park. It's unclear who the closer is in Colorado, but considering they now have Greg Holland, Mike Dunn, Jake Mcgee, and Adam Ottavino all available, they have plenty of quality options. There's no need to explain how good Colorado's offense will be, especially if Trevor Story and Carlos Gonzalez stay healthy all year.

9. The Red Sox won't make the playoffs.

Boston would seem to be in better shape after signing Chris Sale and adding Tyler Thornburg to their staff, but the recent news about David Price is definitely disconcerting. Plus, regression from Rick Porcello and Steven Wright is almost guaranteed. That aside, the staff isn't my biggest question with Boston. The loss of Big Papi will have a bigger effect than simply substituting 38 HR and 127 RBI in the lineup. If you think Hanley Ramirez will simply step in and post the same numbers, let me remind you he has missed 277 games since 2010. The Sox have one of the best middle infield combos around, but the corners are manned by Pablo Sandoval and Mitch Moreland, not exactly world-beaters. As far as the outfield, it may be more hype than substance in fantasy terms. Andrew Benintendi is a top prospect, but he's still a rookie. Jackie Bradley Jr.'s hitting streak was soooo last year - he's still a .237 career hitter in the majors. Mookie Betts, well he'll be fine. Generally speaking, I won't overpay for these big market media darlings.

10. Giancarlo Stanton stays healthy, hits 50 homers and leads the league in slugging.

Yes, this is an overly optimistic one from a Miami native and Marlins fan, but it's gotta happen eventually, right? Maybe 50 is a little high, but 45 is definitely achievable. Stanton has been labeled injury-prone, but the truth is he hasn't had a recurring issue with the same joints, rather a string of random injuries and bad luck. The biggest chunk of time he has missed came in 2015, when he took a fastball to the orbital socket. Stanton is currently representing the U S of A in the World Baseball Classic and looks perfectly ready to start the season.

His upside is what we all dream of when drafting Stanton, but his floor is actually a better justification. Stanton has never hit fewer than 22 HR in a Major League season, a low of which came in his rookie year where he played 100 games. In 2015, he his 27 HR in just 279 at-bats and hit the same number in 413 at-bats last season. He is 27 years old, still in his prime and playing for a team that could at least contend for a wild card, mostly on the strength of its offense.

 

More 2017 RotoBaller Predictions




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Connor McDavid4 mins ago

Racks Up Four Points In Losing Effort
Nick Taylor10 mins ago

Can Surprise Again In The Big Easy
Phillip Danault12 mins ago

Nets Two Goals In Game 1 Victory
Adam Hadwin15 mins ago

Expects To Contend At Zurich Classic
Mark Scheifele17 mins ago

Bags Two Points In Monday's Win
Alejandro Tosti20 mins ago

Could Get Hot Again In New Orleans
Lane Hutson24 mins ago

Posts Two Assists In Playoff Debut
Joe Highsmith27 mins ago

Struggling As New Orleans Approaches
Dylan Strome32 mins ago

Registers Three Assists In Overtime Win
Karl Vilips35 mins ago

Steps Up To Zurich Classic of New Orleans
Alex Ovechkin39 mins ago

Scores First Playoff Overtime Goal
Michael Thorbjornsen42 mins ago

Ready To Make Waves In New Orleans
Braden Schneider46 mins ago

Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
Tom Hoge49 mins ago

Ready To Make Some Birdies In New Orleans
Billy Horschel54 mins ago

Has Game To Win Third Zurich Classic
Texas Rangers1 hour ago

Kohl Drake Sharp In Latest Outing
José Castillo2 hours ago

Jose Castillo Makes Season Debut
Jordan Wicks2 hours ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Termarr Johnson2 hours ago

Tallies Two Hits In Return
Zach Dezenzo2 hours ago

Busy In Monday's Victory
Craig Yoho2 hours ago

Allows One Run In MLB Debut
Jackson Chourio3 hours ago

Singles In Loss To Giants
Caleb Durbin3 hours ago

Homers In Loss Monday
Edwin Díaz3 hours ago

Edwin Diaz Earns Save On Monday
Will Vest3 hours ago

Picks Up Save On Monday
Justin Slaten3 hours ago

Picks Up Save On Monday
Otto Lopez3 hours ago

Steals Two Bases Monday
Austin Riley3 hours ago

Drives In Two On Monday
Bryson Stott3 hours ago

Hits Three-Run HR On Monday
José Ramírez3 hours ago

Jose Ramirez Homers, Drives In Four On Monday
Spencer Schwellenbach4 hours ago

Notches Quality Start Vs. Cardinals
Camilo Doval6 hours ago

Earns Third Save
Hunter Brown7 hours ago

Hurls Gem Monday
Francisco Lindor7 hours ago

Launches Two Big Flies On Monday
Sean Murphy7 hours ago

Blasts Three-Run Homer
Agustín Ramírez7 hours ago

Agustin Ramirez Notches Two Hits In MLB Debut
Tennessee Titans9 hours ago

Titans Have Turned Down Offers For No. 1 Overall Pick
9 hours ago

Saints Targeting Jaxson Dart?
Kirk Cousins9 hours ago

Falcons Have Had Trade Discussions Regarding Kirk Cousins
Atlanta Falcons9 hours ago

Falcons Could Take A Tight End On Day 2 Of The Draft
10 hours ago

Steelers Very Interested In Jaxson Dart, Shedeur Sanders
Sam Howell10 hours ago

Seahawks Open To Trading Sam Howell
Las Vegas Raiders10 hours ago

Raiders Not Afraid To Take A Running Back Early In The Draft
NFL10 hours ago

Shavon Revel Expected Back Around The Start Of Training Camp
Aaron Gordon11 hours ago

Cleared For Action
NFL13 hours ago

Josh Simmons May Not Be Cleared Until August
NFL13 hours ago

Jihaad Campbell A Candidate To Start On PUP List
NFL13 hours ago

Mykel Williams Still Hampered By Ankle Injury
NFL13 hours ago

Will Johnson Could Fall In Draft Due To Knee Injury
13 hours ago

Shedeur Sanders Could Fall Out Of First Round
13 hours ago

Cam Skattebo Visiting With Lions, Titans
Dallas Cowboys13 hours ago

Cowboys Expected To Pick Up Tyler Smith's Fifth-Year Option
Philadelphia Eagles13 hours ago

Cam Jurgens, Eagles Agree On Four-Year Extension
C.J. Stroud14 hours ago

Expects To Be "Running The Show" In New Offense
J.J. McCarthy14 hours ago

"No Limitations" For J.J. McCarthy
San Francisco 49ers14 hours ago

Fred Warner Could Stay Away From Offseason Program
Ousmane Dieng14 hours ago

Still Out On Tuesday
George Kittle14 hours ago

May Not Take Part In Offseason Workouts
Kevin Love14 hours ago

Remains Away From Team
Brock Purdy14 hours ago

Might Not Participate In Voluntary Workouts
Terry Rozier14 hours ago

Hurts Ankle Monday
Damian Lillard15 hours ago

Officially Listed As Questionable For Game 2
Isaiah Stewart15 hours ago

Ruled Out For Game 2 Against Knicks
Trent Frederic15 hours ago

A Game-Time Call Monday
Leon Draisaitl15 hours ago

Returns To Oilers Lineup For Postseason Opener
Jake Walman15 hours ago

Available For Game 1
Brett Kulak15 hours ago

Ready To Play Monday
Aliaksei Protas15 hours ago

Expected To Return During First-Round Series
Miro Heiskanen16 hours ago

Out On Monday
Ross Colton16 hours ago

Uncertain For Game 2
Gabriel Landeskog16 hours ago

Activated From Injured Reserve
Auston Matthews24 hours ago

Finishes Game 1 With Two Assists
Mitchell Marner24 hours ago

Totals Three Points In Postseason Opener
Matt Boldy1 day ago

Bags Two Goals In Losing Effort
Brett Howden1 day ago

Scores Twice In Sunday's Win
Logan Stankoven1 day ago

Nets Two Goals In Game 1 Victory
Brenden Dillon1 day ago

Makes Early Exit Sunday
Isaiah Stewart2 days ago

Iffy For Monday Night
Aaron Gordon2 days ago

Listed As Probable For Game 2
Jaylen Brown3 days ago

Not Expected To Be Limited On Sunday
Ja Morant3 days ago

Cleared To Play Friday
Brandon Williams4 days ago

Available Against Grizzlies
Anthony Davis4 days ago

Will Play Friday Night
Gary Trent Jr.4 days ago

Available For Game 1 Against Pacers
Taurean Prince4 days ago

Returns To Bucks Lineup Saturday
Isaiah Stewart4 days ago

To Return For Game 1
Ausar Thompson4 days ago

Available For Game 1
Rui Hachimura4 days ago

On Track To Play Saturday
Austin Reaves4 days ago

Ready To Go For Game 1
Luka Dončić4 days ago

Luka Doncic Removed From Injury Report
LeBron James4 days ago

Listed As Probable For Game 1
Ben Sheppard4 days ago

Probable For Saturday's Game 1
Ryan Blaney5 days ago

Bold Strategies Fall Flat, Still Musters A Top-Five Finish At Bristol
Lucas Glover6 days ago

Looks To Rebound After Poor Performance
Daniel Berger6 days ago

Looking To Continue Solid Play At RBC
Sepp Straka6 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back At RBC
Justin Thomas6 days ago

Looking To Shake Off Poor Masters At RBC Heritage
Xander Schauffele6 days ago

Still Looking For Year's First Win At RBC Heritage
Austin Dillon6 days ago

Nabs His First Top-10 Finish Of The 2025 Season At Bristol
Maverick McNealy6 days ago

Is An Intriguing Play At RBC Heritage
Shane Lowry6 days ago

Looks To Shake Off Poor Masters Sunday At RBC Heritage
Will Zalatoris6 days ago

Eyes A Bounce-Back At RBC Heritage
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF