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We're on to race number four of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season, as the Shriners Children's 500 is set to take place on Sunday afternoon at Phoenix Raceway. This is a very important race, as Phoenix is also the race that determines the Champion at the end of the year, so teams put a lot of focus into being good here in the spring in hopes of capturing the title in the fall.
Phoenix Raceway is a one-mile tri-oval flat track. It falls under the category of "short, flat tracks" that we talk about several times throughout the year, with good comparable venues being New Hampshire and Richmond. Track position means a lot at Phoenix, and speeding penalties have been plentiful here; there were 10 speeding penalties in the spring race here last season, and seven in the fall race.
DraftKings has a $444,444 prize pool for the big GPP for this weekend's Shriners Children's 500 with $100,00 going to first, so let's start breaking this slate down! You can also join the private RotoBaller DraftKings Phoenix contest by clicking here! Limited spots available.
Phoenix Practice Breakdown
We got an extended practice session this weekend thanks to NASCAR debuting the new short track package at Phoenix this weekend. If you haven't checked out the Practice Speeds and Notes from Friday, be sure to click here and check that out. Long-run speed and track position are going to be very important this weekend. Goodyear is also debuting a brand new tire combination this weekend with the hopes of creating more tire fall-off.
The feedback from the drivers after practice was that this new package is the same as the last short-track package, if not worse. It was hard to pass and run in traffic with the old package, and from what teams were saying during the 50 minutes of practice on Friday, it could be even harder to pass this weekend.
We do have five-, 10-, 15-, 20-, and 25-lap averages from many drivers, though, and you can click here to see a visual heat chart of those. The Toyotas all looked to have a bunch of speed. Christopher Bell in particular had a rocket ship on the long run, ranking fastest in 15-, 20-, 25-, and 30-lap average. Bubba Wallace was fast as well, with Ross Chastain looking very fast as the laps ticked off once again--just like he was in the fall race here last season. Also noteworthy: Joey Logano found some new Phoenix speed in practice on Friday, as the No. 22 Ford (surprisingly) struggled in both Phoenix races last year.
Below is the lap average falloff chart, similar to what we looked at last weekend for Las Vegas. Remember, you have to take these numbers within a full analysis. If a driver is super fast with their short run and middle of the road with tire fall off, that doesn't mean that he's actually slow. The fast short-run speed allows for more tire fall off.
Lineup Building Strategy
Now that we've talked about practice, let's get to the lineup-building strategy for Sunday's race. But first, one thing to keep in mind: because of this weekend's atypical schedule--practice on Friday and qualifying on Saturday--NASCAR allowed the teams to make adjustments to the car between practice and qualifying. While we know what cars were fast during practice, that doesn't mean we should take those speeds as the holy grail since teams actually got time to adjust on the car before the race this weekend!
As far as dominator points go at Phoenix, we typically see two or three drivers gobble up most of them. In the spring race last year, Kyle Larson, Kevin Harvick, and William Byron each had 54, 49, and 47 fastest laps (respectively) for a total of 150 fastest laps (out of 276 possible). Those three also led 301 of the 316 laps. In the fall, the fastest laps were a little more spread out, as we had six drivers with 25 or more. Chastain led the way with 52 fastest laps, while he and Byron combined to lead 252 of the 312 laps. Both races in 2022 saw two drivers lead 100+ laps in each race.
Therefore, your DraftKings lineup for Phoenix should have at least two potential dominators on it. After that, you're filling out with place differential and finishing position potential, and we have a bunch of fast cars starting outside of the top 10, so place differential is abundant. Unfortunately, it sounds like it's going to be super hard to pass with this new short-track package. That means drivers with fast pit crews will have a benefit on Sunday, as they will be able to gain ground during pit stops.
Core Driver Picks for Phoenix
Christopher Bell ($10,000) - Christopher Bell's No. 20 Toyota was an absolute rocketship during practice on Friday, and the short, flat tracks are where this guy really excels. He was the fastest in 15-, 20-, 25-, and 30-lap averages in practice, and was the favorite to qualify on the pole on Saturday, too. Bell wasn't able to put a good lap down, though, and will have to start from 13th this weekend. He's still one of the favorites to win this race and has a great combination of DraftKings driver salary, place differential/dominator potential, and finishing upside. This kid disappoints on race days more than most, so I don't like going "all in" on him this weekend, but Christopher Bell is a core pick for Phoenix.
Ross Chastain ($9,000) - I preach it every week: things don't change very much with this NextGen car! Ross Chastain was dominant here last fall because he had a super fast long-run race car, and the No. 1 Chevrolet is fast again this weekend, as Ross ranked 4th-fastest in 15-lap average and 3rd-fastest in 20-lap average during practice on Friday. Chastain has three podium finishes at Phoenix in four NextGen races, so his salary was already super favorable at $9,000. The Melon Man is a must-play on DraftKings this weekend, in my opinion. My algorithm has him projected to finish 2nd.
Austin Cindric ($6,200) - Austin Cindric is by no means good at Phoenix Raceway, but he's cheap at $6,200 on DraftKings and he qualified back in 34th for Sunday's Shriners Children's 500 race. He's also in a Penske Racing Ford, and the short, flat tracks are where that organization excels. In practice on Friday, Cindric was middle-of-the-road on speed, ranking 19th-fastest in 15-lap average and 15th-fastest in 20-lap average. Even just a low-20s finish on Sunday is likely going to get him into the optimal DraftKings lineup for Phoenix.
Other chalk plays... Joey Logano, Bubba Wallace, and Josh Berry
Tournament Driver Picks for Phoenix
Denny Hamlin ($10,500) - Winning the pole at any race track is an advantage, but it gets magnified even more when you do so at Phoenix Raceway. It's going to be hard to pass during the race on Sunday, so Hamlin has a clear advantage to gobble up laps led since he's on the pole. Additionally, the first pit stall at Phoenix is one of the best in the series since the timing line is so close to the front of the stall, as we heard Steve Letarte talk about on the Dirty Mo podcast this week. Pair that with Hamlin's super fast pit crew, and that's a recipe for success. Oh, and we can't forget that Denny has two wins at this race track. Could it be three after this weekend?
Tyler Reddick ($8,500) - My projections love Tyler Reddick this weekend even though he qualified in sixth place for the Shriners Children's 500. Going down to Chris Buescher ($8,300) gives you some place differential upside at a cheaper price, but Reddick has the dominator upside on Sunday. This No. 45 Toyota has also finished 3rd in each of the last two spring Phoenix races, with Reddick grabbing the podium last season and Kurt Busch doing so in 2022. In practice on Friday, Reddick was fifth-fastest in 15-lap average and he had some of the lowest falloff time between 5-lap and 15-lap averages during that session.
Chase Briscoe ($7,800) - I'm not going to go crazy heavy on Chase Briscoe this weekend, but I'll be overweight on the field with this Stewart-Haas Racing driver. Remember, Briscoe won the first Phoenix race with the NextGen car, and he has posted top-10 finishes in three of the four NextGen races here. Additionally, if you look at the falloff chart above, Briscoe's No. 14 Ford was right in line with Christopher Bell's No. 20 Toyota when it came to tire falloff. If this SHR team fixed their short-run speed between practice and qualifying, Chase has a chance at being a sleeper dominator on Sunday. His 8th-place qualifying effort will keep his DraftKings ownership low. My projections love Bubba Wallace ($7,700) this weekend, so Briscoe is a great pivot play, in my opinion.
Optimal Lineup According to Jordan's Projections
The optimal DraftKings lineup for the Shriners Children's 500 at Phoenix on Sunday according to my projections is:
- Christopher Bell
- Joey Logano
- Ross Chastain
- Bubba Wallace
- Josh Berry
- Austin Cindric
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DraftKings Driver Projections for Phoenix
You can click here to download the .csv file of these projections. Remember: the projections automatically loaded into the optimizer are NOT my projections.
| Driver | DK Salary | Proj DK Pts | Proj Own | Start Pos | Avg Proj Finish | $ Per FPT |
| Christopher Bell | $10,000 | 66.53 | 35.50% | 13 | 04.2 | $150 |
| Ross Chastain | $9,000 | 64.92 | 30.05% | 12 | 05.5 | $139 |
| Denny Hamlin | $10,500 | 64.03 | 28.69% | 1 | 04.2 | $164 |
| Kyle Larson | $11,500 | 62.23 | 28.10% | 17 | 04.3 | $185 |
| Joey Logano | $9,500 | 55.85 | 37.42% | 23 | 07.7 | $170 |
| Ryan Blaney | $11,200 | 55.17 | 22.15% | 16 | 06.7 | $203 |
| Tyler Reddick | $8,500 | 49.53 | 13.83% | 6 | 07.5 | $172 |
| William Byron | $11,000 | 46.00 | 17.08% | 5 | 06.7 | $239 |
| Kyle Busch | $9,200 | 44.93 | 24.78% | 31 | 16.2 | $205 |
| Martin Truex Jr | $9,800 | 44.60 | 18.56% | 11 | 07.7 | $220 |
| Chris Buescher | $8,300 | 40.52 | 15.10% | 14 | 12.3 | $205 |
| Brad Keselowski | $8,200 | 39.92 | 17.26% | 18 | 13.0 | $205 |
| Bubba Wallace | $7,700 | 39.67 | 22.83% | 22 | 12.8 | $194 |
| Josh Berry | $7,200 | 36.67 | 34.17% | 36 | 21.0 | $196 |
| Alex Bowman | $7,500 | 31.83 | 16.52% | 25 | 18.0 | $236 |
| Chase Elliott | $8,800 | 31.73 | 11.39% | 3 | 12.0 | $277 |
| Chase Briscoe | $7,800 | 31.62 | 9.03% | 8 | 13.3 | $247 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,300 | 28.17 | 14.37% | 15 | 15.3 | $259 |
| Austin Cindric | $6,200 | 26.97 | 39.19% | 34 | 25.7 | $230 |
| Ty Gibbs | $8,000 | 24.72 | 7.62% | 2 | 14.5 | $324 |
| Ryan Preece | $6,900 | 23.17 | 16.63% | 27 | 23.2 | $298 |
| John H. Nemechek | $6,500 | 22.67 | 13.96% | 19 | 19.5 | $287 |
| Erik Jones | $7,000 | 22.42 | 6.44% | 4 | 14.7 | $312 |
| Austin Dillon | $6,800 | 18.83 | 17.29% | 30 | 26.5 | $361 |
| Corey LaJoie | $6,300 | 17.83 | 19.64% | 35 | 29.5 | $353 |
| Michael McDowell | $6,700 | 14.77 | 6.83% | 9 | 20.2 | $454 |
| Zane Smith | $5,700 | 14.00 | 12.99% | 28 | 27.8 | $407 |
| Justin Haley | $5,200 | 11.83 | 6.01% | 33 | 31.3 | $439 |
| Harrison Burton | $5,400 | 11.67 | 8.89% | 24 | 27.2 | $463 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $6,400 | 11.50 | 9.38% | 20 | 25.3 | $557 |
| Carson Hocevar | $6,000 | 11.15 | 5.04% | 10 | 21.5 | $538 |
| Todd Gilliland | $5,900 | 08.00 | 12.51% | 29 | 31.2 | $738 |
| Daniel Hemric | $5,600 | 07.00 | 9.80% | 21 | 27.8 | $800 |
| Kaz Grala | $5,000 | 06.50 | 1.44% | 32 | 33.3 | $769 |
| Derek Kraus | $5,100 | 03.50 | 2.75% | 26 | 31.8 | $1,457 |
| Noah Gragson | $6,600 | 02.02 | 6.76% | 7 | 24.5 | $3,273 |
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