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After a wild first day of free agency, there were still a number of major dominos left to fall, especially at quarterback. Former Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers was one of those veterans that was expected to be on the move after it was announced weeks ago that he and the team would be parting ways.
Rivers had long been a rumored target for the Indianapolis Colts and they landed him with a one-year contract that was worth $25 million. After a lackluster year from quarterback Jacoby Brissett, it became evident that they were interested in a more high-octane option. While Rivers will be a short-term rental, he will give their entire offense a bump in 2020.
Rivers didn't cost them any draft capital or players on their roster. With an overwhelming amount of cap space, giving him that hefty deal doesn't bog them down to continue to make moves this year. Indianapolis missed the playoffs last year, but they're hoping that Rivers is the type of quarterback that can bring them back. Could this inject life into his fantasy value after a disappointing final season with the Bolts?
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Expectations for Rivers
Rivers was a great fantasy option for a number of years, but he ran into issues last season with turnovers. His touchdown to interception ratio was just 23:20 after keeping a near 3:1 ratio in the two prior seasons. One of the major reasons for Rivers' struggles was due to a poor offensive line. The Chargers dealt with injuries and poor draft picks which made them unable to keep him clean. After re-signing left tackle Anthony Castonzo, the Colts won't have the same problem.
Rivers has made his reputation as a gunslinger through volume. He has attempted at least 500 passes in every season since 2010. While Indy hit that mark last year, this team doesn't try to win with high-octane offense. They like to ride their stable of running backs and control the clock throughout the game. Similar to the way the Green Bay Packers were winning games last year, their quarterback was in charge of taking care of the ball while keeping the offense moving forward. That's what the Colts will be trying to do with Rivers in 2020-21.
I expect the Colts to take a step forward on defense with the offense getting a bump as well. As a result, I'd put Rivers somewhere in the QB12-15 range. He would give me confidence as a backup or streaming option, but I wouldn't want him as my weekly starter unless it was an extremely deep league. He finished as QB18 last season, and I think he's going to smash that mark next season.
Time for a T.Y. Hilton Bounceback
Prior to an injury last season, wide receiver T.Y. Hilton was on pace to be a top-10 receiver in fantasy. He was his team's clear top option, and he was showing a new nose for the end zone. Through his first five games of the season, he had 30 catches on 40 targets for 306 yards and five touchdowns. No one else on the team was coming even close to the numbers he was putting up. After his injury combined with Brissett's struggles, his season trajectory tanked.
Rivers' top target with the Chargers was wideout Keenan Allen, who finished with 260 or more PPR points in each of the last three seasons. Hilton is easily going to be that guy for Rivers with no other candidate on the roster. Hilton has improved his ability to work on the underneath routes over the past two seasons which will help as Rivers' arm continues to diminish.
After scoring five touchdowns through five games, Hilton scored zero over the final five. Allen had scored at least six in each of the past three seasons. Hilton will see somewhere north of 120 targets next season, and he still has the speed to turn in multiple big receptions that result in touchdowns. Unless Indianapolis adds another legit threat at wide receiver, which they could do in the draft, Hilton's stock is going to continue pointing all the way up.
Nyheim Hines is Trending Upwards
Chargers running back Austin Ekeler saw 108 targets last season as his team's second running back. Colts running back Nyheim Hines isn't the receiver out of the backfield that Ekeler is, but I expect him to put up value on a weekly basis as Rivers uses him as an outlet. Against opponents with a big advantage or with an elite offense, it wouldn't stun me for him to finish as an RB1 in certain weeks.
In his two seasons, Hines has 107 receptions to his name, and he's caught 77.0% of the targets that have been thrown his way. The Colts don't have a ton of proven receiving threats, but Hines is one of them. He gives the new quarterback a bailout option when none of his other targets are open, but they can also get more experimental with how they use Hines. He can create mismatches out of the backfield, and head coach Frank Reich will take advantage of that.
I would still expect running back Marlon Mack to be this team's lead running back, but I think Hines is going to bring more scoring than we've seen from him in the previous two seasons. Similar to how the Chargers deployed their two running backs, we could see the Colts utilize that to keep each of them fresh throughout the season. Additionally, Mack has yet to play 16 games in a season in his career, so Hines is just one injury away from becoming a starting running back in a good offense.
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