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The Philadelphia Phillies will be our next stop on the farm to evaluate the best prospects on each MLB team. Once the 2020 MLB season begins, it may turn out that Minor League systems will be more important than usual. Franchises are losing money during the pandemic layoff, so many teams will be looking for sources of cheap production. It might also take older players longer to rebound from a long layoff, meaning we could see more injuries and more roster moves. We will also see expanded rosters, at least in the early going.
One important question to ask is: How will a long layoff affect prospects? One has to assume the more advanced prospects prior to the work stoppage will be at an advantage, while the more “toolsy but raw” type could be hurt with the lack of repetition and in-game action; throwing or hitting in simulated environments just doesn’t match up to the real thing. Many prospects will have to work jobs during the pandemic just to make ends meet, while players who signed for large bonuses will have an advantage. Other prospects that lack strong discipline and commitment to their craft could struggle to stay in shape.
We won’t really know what the layoff impact will have on baseball in general until things start ramping up. But we do know that a strong prospect pool will continue to be an important element for a successful baseball franchise. We’re looking at the Top 10 (or more) dynasty prospects in each organization with an eye to discovering which organizations are best positioned to succeed with their player development when games resume. Make sure to check out all of our prospect content, including Top 50 for 2020 and Top 250 for Dynasty Leagues.
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Quick Synopsis
The Phillies system has some star talent at the top of the chart, but things fall off quickly from there.
1. Alec Bohm, 3B/1B
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 15
2020 Prospect Rank: 20
2020 LEVEL: AA
MLB ETA: 2020
Bohm exploded in his first full pro season and played at three levels, topping out in Double-A. He slugged 21 home runs in total over 125 games and could eventually show 30-homer pop in the Majors. Bohm also makes surprisingly-consistent contact for such a tall, power-hitting player. His willingness to take a walk adds value in on-base leagues.
2. Spencer Howard, RHP
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 40
2020 Prospect Rank: 40
2020 LEVEL: AA
MLB ETA: 2021
Howard has a chance to be a frontline starter — if he can prove to be durable enough. The hard-throwing right-hander missed time in 2019 with a shoulder issue — a year after throwing more than 100 innings for the first time. Howard’s stuff is nasty with a mid-to-upper-90s fastball and three above-average secondaries.
3. Adonis Medina, RHP
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 114
2020 LEVEL: AAA
MLB ETA: 2020
This is where the system drops off. Medina is a fine prospect, but he might have more value in the bullpen than the starting rotation. He has mid-90s heat, but the fastball is not overly effective as a swing-and-miss offering. But he does generate a lot of ground-ball outs. He backs up the heater with a very good changeup and a slider that flashes average. If he sticks in the starting rotation, he’s more of a No. 4 guy with a chance to inch up a bit if he can develop a consistent weapon that elicits more empty swings.
4. Bryson Stott, SS
Dynasty Prospect Rank: 199
2020 LEVEL: A+
MLB ETA: 2022
I personally saw Stott as more of a back-of-the-first-round talent in the 2019 draft, but the Phillies weren’t listening, and they nabbed him 14th overall. Credit where credit’s due, he had a nice debut in short-season ball by hitting .295 with a 24-39 BB-K rate in 48 games. He’s a little bit stiff with his actions, and I see a player who’s going to plateau in the upper levels of the minors and be more of an average-ish regular than a star. He’s probably not going to stick at shortstop, and a move to third base will put real pressure on his ability to hit for significant power.
5. Francisco Morales, RHP
2020 LEVEL: A+
MLB ETA: 2022
Morales is the biggest sleeper in the system. He has a chance to develop into an absolute beast. His fastball can touch 97-98 mph, and Morales backs it up with a wipeout slider. To realize his full potential, he’ll need to improve his changeup, and sharpen his command/control. If things don’t pan out as a starter, Morales has high-leverage potential as a reliever.
6. Rafael Marchan, C
2020 LEVEL: A+
MLB ETA: 2022
Known more for his defensive prowess, Marchan’s bat started to show additional promise in 2019. He makes excellent contact and produced a BB-K of 30-39 in 85 games. Along with that, the 5-foot-9 hitter (who has never hit a pro home run) started to show some extra-base pop with 20 of his 82 hits going for two-baggers. Offensive expectations are low for catchers, and Marchan should get a chance to play every day due to his defensive abilities. If he can keep the strikeouts low, grab some walks and continue to get stronger and hit a bunch of doubles, there is some intrigue here.
7. Luis Garcia, SS
2020 LEVEL: A-
MLB ETA: 2021
Not to be confused with the Washington Nationals’ middle infielder prospect of the same name, Garcia was given $2.5 million to sign and had an outstanding pro debut in 2018 in Rookie ball. The Phillies then pushed him too aggressively with an assignment to full-season ball in 2019, where he fell on his face and hit just .186 with a BB-K of 44-132 in 127 games. An extra three months in extended spring training facing breaking balls would have done wonders for his development, and the pandemic layoff likely did him no favors. Garcia has the raw tools and intriguing athleticism to rebound, but it will be a steep hill to climb.
8. Erik Miller, LHP
2020 LEVEL: A+
MLB ETA: 2022
I liked Miller in the 2019 draft and would have considered him in the supplemental first or second round, so getting him in the fourth was excellent value for the Phillies. Big and strong, this lefty has a chance to be a No. 3/4 starter if everything clicks just right (improved command/control, fastball velocity bounces back). If not, he could see his fastball/slider mix play up as a high-leverage reliever. Miller can touch 96-97 mph with his heater, but it loses clicks quickly as a starter.
9. Simon Muzziotti, OF
2020 LEVEL: AA
MLB ETA: 2021
Muzziotti is a speedy player who needs to find a way to get on base more consistently. He doesn’t walk as much as you’d like to see from someone whose best offensive weapon is his legs. Along with being too aggressive, Muzziotti doesn’t have much pop in his bat, so big-league pitchers likely won’t be afraid to challenge him, which could lead to weak contact early in the count unless he gets stronger. Still, there is 20+ stolen base potential here if he plays every day due to his strong defense in center field.
10. Mickey Moniak, OF
2020 LEVEL: AAA
MLB ETA: 2020
A former first-overall draft selection, Moniak will never live up to the original hype and, more likely than not, will end up as a big-league fourth outfielder or fringe-regular — kind of a Kevin Pillar type without the highlight catches. Moniak doesn’t appear to have much of a game plan at the plate and hacks at less-than-ideal offerings too much. On the plus side, he’s added some pop so he could perhaps hit 15 home runs with 15-20 steals at maturity.
More Prospect Analysis
