Philadelphia Eagles 2024 Fantasy Football Team Preview - QB, RB, WR, TE Outlooks

Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the Philadelphia Eagles as part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. This new 32-part series will dissect each NFL team through a fantasy football lens. We'll look at each of the four primary positions—quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end—and identify each player's value at their current ADP. Through this series, we'll also recognize players fantasy managers should avoid and target at their current ADP.

The Eagles' offense fell off a cliff late last season. That was especially true for A.J. Brown, who struggled down the stretch. Philadelphia hired Kellen Moore, the former offensive coordinator for the Chargers (2023) and the Cowboys (2019-2022). His offenses have typically been pass-heavy, up-tempo, and include a lot of pre-snap motion. That is the trifecta for any pass-catchers, and because of that, fantasy managers should be excited to get their hands on Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. Jalen Hurts also looks poised to have his best statistical season passing the football. This offense should look a lot different than last season, and that's a good thing.

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Fantasy Football Team Previews

Quarterback

Jalen Hurts: QB2, ADP 26

Much has been made about Jason Kelce's retirement and how that might negatively affect the team’s trademark “tush-push” play, but fantasy managers shouldn’t be too worried about that. Kelce undoubtedly was a big part of the play’s success, but this is still one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. It’s still going to be part of their offense. It was too effective for it not to be.

From 1990-2023, five quarterbacks have had 150 or more rush attempts in a season. They’ve finished as the QB1, QB1, QB2, QB5, and QB7 in PPG averages. Since 1990, there have been nine quarterbacks with 125-149 rush attempts in a season. They’ve finished as the QB1, QB1, QB3, QB3, QB5, QB5, QB7, QB8, and QB23. QB23.

The lone outlier here belongs to Cam Newton’s 2020 season with the New England Patriots. That year, he threw 368 passes and just eight touchdowns. Everyone else, though, finished in the top eight. Since 1990, there have been 21 quarterbacks to finish with 700 or more rushing yards. Their fantasy finishes have ranged from QB1 to QB11. Fifteen have finished in the top five, ten have finished in the top three, and five have finished as “the” QB1.

rushing TDs from the 1-yard line since 2021

22 - QB Jalen Hurts
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14 - RB Jamaal Williams
13
12 - RB Joe Mixon
11 - RB Derrick Henry, RB Ezekiel Elliott
10 - RB James Conner, RB Josh Jacobs
9 - RB Gus Edwards
8 - RB Jonathan Taylor, RB Austin Ekeler, RB…

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) July 7, 2024

In 2021, Hurts had 139 carries and 784 yards. The following season, he had 165 carries and 760 yards; this past year, he finished with 157 carries and 605 yards. Running quarterbacks is a cheat code for fantasy football, and Hurts has proven to be one of the best. Even in 2021, before the tush-push, Hurts still finished with ten rushing touchdowns compared to the 13 and 15 he scored the past two seasons, respectively. Sure, it might dip slightly, but 8-10 rushing touchdowns will still finish first or second at the position. We’re still talking about an elite-elite rusher.

Over the past three seasons, Hurts has averaged 45.7 rushing yards per game. Even if we project “just” seven rushing touchdowns, which would be the lowest of his career since becoming the full-time starter, Hurts would “still” have averaged 7.042 fantasy points per game on the ground alone. Lamar Jackson averaged 7.005 fantasy per game on the ground last season. Let’s not go too crazy about concerns about the tush-push slightly declining or massively affecting his fantasy value.

Hiring offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will undoubtedly bring some changes; for fantasy, they will likely be positive. From 2019-2022, as the Cowboys’ offensive coordinator, Dallas ran a play every 25.6 seconds, and their pass rate was 57.9% in neutral situations. As the Chargers’ offensive coordinator last season, Los Angeles ran a play every 25.8 seconds and had a 59.7% pass rate.

Last year, the Eagles ran a play every 27.1 seconds and had a pass rate of 53.6%. Based on that data, fantasy managers should anticipate a faster-paced offense in Philadelphia. That quicker tempo should increase the number of plays Philadelphia runs, which, for fantasy, is always a good thing. The increased passing rate could also lead to the best passing seasons of Hurts’ career.

Jalen Hurts in Round 4 is silly. Was a top-6 QB in 11 weeks last year despite chaos ensuing.

I'm expecting these dropoffs to get fixed. pic.twitter.com/oXMACpo04n

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) June 28, 2024

In Moore’s five seasons as an offensive coordinator, his offenses have finished 10th, second, sixth, 19th, and third in pass attempts. It’s important to remember that his starting quarterback has missed 21 games through those five seasons. Despite this, as a team, Moore’s offenses have finished second, eighth, second, 14th, and 13th in passing yards. The highest Philly has finished in pass attempts since Hurts became the starter was 21st.

Last year, Philadelphia used pre-snap motion at the lowest rate in the NFL, compared to the Chargers, who had the second highest. Dallas was also above the league-average rate in pre-snap motion. Implementing that element into Philly’s offense will help give Hurts some easier throws and help prevent the offense from stagnating like it did late last season. Hurts has yet to have 550 pass attempts in a season, 4,000 yards, or 25 passing touchdowns. However, fantasy managers shouldn’t be surprised if Hurts accomplishes all three this year.

Hurts belongs in the top-three conversation at quarterback. With the potential increase in his passing statistics and Josh Allen losing Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, Hurts has a good chance to finish this season as the No. 1 overall scoring quarterback. Patrick Mahomes will have something to say, but Hurts belongs in that conversation. He’s been an elite runner and an average passer the past two seasons, but we could see him become an above-average passer, and as long as he maintains that elite rusher status, which he should, Hurts’ ceiling is just as high as it’s been. Maybe even higher…

Verdict: Buy Jalen Hurts

Running Back

Saquon Barkley: RB6, ADP 16
Will Shipley: RB68, ADP 221
Kenneth Gainwell: RB70, ADP 232

There’s a lot of excitement for Barkley in Philly. On the surface, it’s easy to see why. Philly is excellent. The Giants are terrible. Philly’s offensive line is great. New York’s is awful. However, those same things were true for D'Andre Swift last year, and he had his worst half-PPR PPG average in his career despite rushing for 1,000 yards for the first time. How’d that happen?

Swift averaged just 0.37 touchdowns per game. In 2022, he averaged 0.57; in 2021, he averaged 0.54 touchdowns per game. That’s one of the reasons, but the bigger reason was his involvement in the passing game. In 2023, Swift averaged just 3.06 targets per game. From 2020-2022 with Detroit, Swift never averaged fewer than 3.4 receptions per game. Not targets, receptions. From 2021-2022, excluding his rookie season, Swift averaged 5.48 targets per game with Detroit. The significant decrease in touchdowns and targets is how he finished with his lowest half-PPR PPG average despite having the most rushing yards of his career.

Target per route run rates at RB:
(2019-23)

18.9% — League average
17.5% — RBs playing for Kellen Moore
15.9% — RBs playing with Jalen Hurts
14.5% — RBs not named Kenneth Gainwell playing with Jalen Hurts

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) June 20, 2024

As you can see from the tweet above, targets could also be an issue for Barkley. In 2023, the Philly running backs combined for 93 targets. The year before, it was only 61; in 2021, it was 106. Since returning from his torn ACL in 2021, Barkley has averaged 4.48 targets per game, a pace of 76 over 17 games. Since Hurts became the starter in 2021, no Philly running back has had more than 50 targets in a season.

While we can undoubtedly claim that Barkley is a better player than Miles Sanders, Gainwell, and Swift, the fact remains that we haven’t seen the running back position be a focal point of Hurts’ target distribution. Even if we expect Barkley to have more targets than his predecessors (we should), it still could very well be below what we’ve come to expect from Barkley.

Hurts’ has averaged 8.56 intended air yards per attempt since 2021. He’s also had A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert to throw to. Since 2021, Daniel Jones has averaged just 6.77 intended air yards per attempt. His best receivers have been Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton, and Daniel Bellinger. Hurts is more willing to attack defenses downfield and has significantly more talented weapons to target.

Barkley is another reason why the team may decrease the “tush-push.” He’s better than Sanders and Swift by a large margin. While fantasy managers need to be somewhat concerned by Hurts’ vulturing touchdowns, he didn’t have many scoring opportunities in New York either. The ceiling is certainly higher in Philly than it was in New York, but his ceiling is also not as high as Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, or Christian McCaffrey when it comes to touchdowns because Hurts will have his fair share.

Saquon Barkley and Eagles RBs last season pic.twitter.com/M3OHzkpbIL

— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) July 9, 2024

One of the areas where Barkley will prosper greatly is the play of the offensive line and positive game scripts. In 2019, Barkley averaged just 1.8 yards before contact per attempt. He tore his ACL in 2020, returned in 2021, and averaged 1.9 yards before contact per attempt. He averaged 2.5 yards before contact per attempt in 2022 and 1.9 last year. In 2021, as a team, Philadelphia averaged 3.3 yards before contact per attempt. It was 3.3 again in 2022 and 2.8 this past season. Last season, Swift had just 16.2% of carries stuffed, whereas Barkley had 25.1%.

I love Saquon this year too. One of my fav stats-Barkley has run the ball a grand total of 19 times in his entire 6 yr career in the 4th Q up > 8 pts. PHI RBs have received 109 carries up>8 in the 4th just the L2 yrs alone. Add in the huge OL gap btw NY & he’s going to explode…

— Clevta (@Clevta) July 8, 2024

As you can see from the tweet above, Barkley will also be gifted much more fantasy-friendly game scripts. Overall, there are some excellent things about his move to Philadelphia and some questionable elements, largely the potential decrease in targets. Due to Hurts not targeting his running backs a lot and the fact that he’ll score some rushing touchdowns himself, Barkley may not have a realistic top-three outcome in 2024.

However, fantasy managers should expect Barkley to handle most of the touches in Philadelphia’s backfield. Given the strength of their offense and offensive line, Barkley's talent will shine through. His current price is fair for fantasy managers.

Shipley played three years at Clemson before entering the NFL Draft. He finished with 526 carries, 2,751 yards, and 31 touchdowns. His best season came as a sophomore when he had 210 carries, 1,171 yards, and 15 touchdowns. For his college career, he had 104 targets, 84 receptions, 601 yards, and two touchdowns. Once again, his best season came in his second year, finishing with 42 targets, 37 receptions, and 237 yards. Shipley averaged 3.14 yards after contact per attempt for his career.

He’s 5-foot-11 and 206 pounds and was drafted in the fourth round. Lance Zierlein of NFL.com stated, “his size and running style are more in line with a role as a complementary back”. Given his size, if Barkley were to get hurt, fantasy managers would likely be dealing with an ugly committee backfield approach. Shipley is the unknown player, which presents some upside since we now know who Gainwell is. However, given that Shipley is a day-three rookie and Gainwell is an experienced player under head coach Nick Sirianni, Gainwell is sure to be involved and might even get the first crack in the event of a Barkley injury.

Gainwell has never had 100 carries or 375 rushing yards in a season in three years. However, he does have 116 targets, 86 receptions, and 605 receiving yards in three years. Sirianni has trusted Gainwell in that third-down, two-minute drill, pass-catching role, and that remained the case even with Swift on the roster. If Barkley were to go down, we should expect Gainwell to at least maintain that role, which tends to be fantasy-friendly.

The biggest question would become who gets the goal-line touches, and the answer might be Jalen Hurts. However, given Gainwell’s experience and the fact that Sirianni wasn’t afraid to use him near the goal line in 2021 and 2022 when he scored nine combined rushing touchdowns, fantasy managers should expect Gainwell to have a leg up in that area, as well.

Given that, I would target Gainwell ahead of Shipley. However, given Moore’s pass-heavy history and Hurts’ lack of running back targets, if Barkley were to get injured, there’s a reasonable chance that Philly would become one of the more pass-heavy offenses in the league. Gainwell and Shipley would split playing time, but the touches for either player would be limited.

Hurts’ rushing ability near the goal line would likely be utilized even more in such a situation, decreasing the scoring opportunities and upside for either player. Each player is essentially free, but there’s a reason for that. Even in the event of a Barkley injury, the upside appears very limited. Since they’re so cheap, we’ll say their price is fair, but it’s hard to get excited about either player’s handcuff value.

Verdict: Fair Price on Saquon Barkley, Will Shipley, and Kenneth Gainwell

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown: WR6, ADP 9
DeVonta Smith: WR23, ADP 37

Fantasy managers should be very interested in and excited about both of these players. As we've already discussed under Hurts, Kellen Moore's offense has been much more pass-heavy and pass-centric than what we've come to expect from Philadelphia's offenses over the past few years. From 2019-2022, Prescott averaged 36.9 attempts, 287.8 yards, and 2.0 touchdowns per game under Moore.

With Moore moving to the Chargers this past season, Justin Herbert averaged 36.6 attempts, 253.2 yards, and 1.7 touchdowns per game. From 2021-2023, Hurts has averaged 30.4 attempts, 227.7 yards, and 1.3 touchdowns per game. Those numbers speak for themselves. We've already mentioned how Moore's offense should be more up-tempo, which is another positive, but these aren't the only good things that Moore brings to the table for these receivers. Check this out...

The league average red zone pass rate over the past three seasons is 51%.

Kellen Moore's rate is 55%.

Philly's rate is 36%. Next-lowest is Chicago at 42%.

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) June 29, 2024

We've already established that fantasy managers should expect more overall plays from the Philadelphia offense under Moore. Brown and Smith should also have more pass attempts, increasing their target volume, naturally increasing their yardage potential. On top of that, however, their scoring opportunities should also increase.

As you can see from the tweet above, Moore's offenses have been much more pass-heavy inside the red zone compared to how Philly has operated in recent seasons. Moore's offenses have passed 55% of the time in the red zone in the past three years. Philly is at 36%. Not surprisingly, that's led to way more passing touchdowns. Moore's offenses have scored 60% of their touchdowns via the pass, while there's been no Philly offense over the past three years to score 50% of their touchdowns via the air. So, here's what we have so far:

• More overall plays
• Faster tempo
• More passing volume
• More passing yardage
• More passing touchdowns

Check, check, and check. It's hard to imagine this getting even better, but it does. Pre-snap motion can create a lot of easy looks for quarterbacks and receivers. In fact, over the past three seasons, wide receiver motion routs have been worth more than 50% more fantasy points than non-motion receiver routes. That's insane, but it shouldn't be surprising. Last year, the top teams in pre-snap motion were the Dolphins (Tyreek Hill), 49ers (Brandon Aiyuk), Rams (Puka Nacua), Chiefs (Travis Kelce), Chargers (Keenan Allen), Texans (Nico Collins), and Bears (D.J. Moore).

Moore's offenses have used pre-snap motion 48% of the time when passing over the past five years, up from an NFL average of 41%.

In 2023, the Chargers ranked fifth in pre-snap motion rate (58%). The Eagles ranked 30th.

Here's why this is so important⤵️https://t.co/eGyGjR1EW4

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) June 23, 2024

In 2022, Lamb averaged 8.92 targets, 6.33 receptions, 81.58 yards, and 0.58 touchdowns per game in the 12 games that Prescott started. Those per-game stats put him on pace for 152 targets, 108 receptions, 1,387, and 10 touchdowns. He averaged 15.26 half-PPR PPG, which would have been WR7. Last year, Keenan Allen had 150 targets, 108 receptions, 1,243 yards, and seven touchdowns in 13 games, putting him on pace for 196 targets, 141 receptions, 1,625 yards, and nine touchdowns. He averaged 17.3 half-PPR PPG, finishing as the WR3. Both of these receivers primarily operated out of the slot. Allen ran 59% of his routes from the slot last season, and Lamb was 62% in 2022. Whoever gets the Lamb/Allen role in Moore's offense for Philly will have a fantastic season.

A.J. Brown could be THE WR1 if Eagles fully implement Kellen Moore offense.

Eagles ranks last year v. Moore

Dropback rate over expected: 19, 5
Plays per minute over expected: 20, 1
Motion %: 29, 2

Motion routes worth 55% more than non-motion in fantasy points last 3 years. pic.twitter.com/RoJwoCP5AI

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) July 1, 2024

Last season, AJB was in the slot for 24% of his routes, and Smith was there for 31%. In 2022, AJB ran 26% of his routes from the slot, and Smith was at 25%. In the past few seasons, Smith has the higher yard-per-route run average from the slot, but AJB is far more deadly after the catch. The most likely outcome is that both players get a chance to play that role, which sets them both up for a fantastic season. While I don't believe this is actionable, it certainly is interesting. In 2022, from Weeks 10-17, AJB averaged 14.4 half-PPR PPG. During that same period, Smith averaged 15.1 half-PPR PPG. Edge, Smith. This past season, from Weeks 10-17, Smith averaged 12.7 half-PPR PPG, and Brown was at 9.6 half-PPR PPG.

If anything, that should tell fantasy managers that Smith is an excellent value at his WR23 price tag. He's certainly someone to buy, but so is AJB. Moore's offense should bring a wealth of upside to these two pass-catchers that we haven't seen over the past two seasons. Both of these players are well-positioned to outplay their current positional rankings.

Verdict: Buy AJ Brown and Buy DeVonta Smith

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert: TE12, ADP 112

Goedert had an up-and-down season last year, but to be fair, so did almost every offensive player for the Eagles. Goedert averaged the most targets per game, so his efficiency metrics worsened. The entire Eagles’ offense had its wheels completely fall off in the second half of last season. In their first 11 games, Philly averaged 28.18 points per game, 364.27 total yards per game, and 231.00 passing yards. Including their Wild Card loss to Tampa Bay, in their final seven games, they averaged 18.85 points per game, 327.57 yards per game, and 218.14 passing yards per game. While the decrease in yardage wasn’t overly significant, their points per game fell by almost 10.

As you can see from the table, however, in 2021 and 2022, Goedert was one of the most efficient tight ends in the NFL. Considering that most of the Eagles’ offensive players struggled in the second half of the season, it shouldn’t be surprising to see Goedert bounce back closer to his 2021 and 2022 averages. Kellen Moore’s offense should have a positive impact in this regard.

In 2021, while still with the Cowboys, Moore’s offense, which featured CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Dalton Schultz, was very fantasy-friendly. Schultz finished with 104 targets, 78 receptions, 808 yards, and eight touchdowns. He was the TE6 with a 9.6 half-PPR PPG average. Schultz had similar usage in 2022, but the efficiency declined.

Dak Prescott missed five games due to injury, and Schultz missed two. Still, he finished with 89 targets, 57 receptions, 577 yards, and five touchdowns. He was the TE11 with a 7.8 half-PPR PPG average. Goedert is a more talented player than Schultz overall, giving fantasy managers something to look forward to.

The Philadelphia offense will be consolidated, which is great for fantasy football. It’s hard to imagine anyone other than Brown, Smith, Goedert, and Barkley touching the ball very much in the passing game. Barkley being a better pass-catcher than recent running backs could be a slight disadvantage for Goedert, but the overall running back target share is unlikely to change much. Barkley will likely garner a larger piece of the pie than previous starters.

The increased tempo and passing volume should give Goedert more opportunities in the passing game. In 2021 and 2022, Goedert displayed that he could be an elite pass-catching tight end. If there’s a downside to Goedert’s game, at least thus far, it’s been his red zone utilization and touchdown scoring.

I love TE Dallas Goedert for fantasy this season.

I know the tush push still exists, and the Eagles signed Saquon Barkley.

But new OC Kellen Moore loves to scheme up TEs near the red zone.

If you miss out on elite-level TEs, give me someone who is on a great offense and will…

— Jordan Vanek (@JordanVanekDFS) June 22, 2024

In 2023, he finished with just 13 red zone targets, tied for 19th among tight ends. He finished 22nd with three end-zone targets. It was just as bad in 2022 when he finished 25th in red zone targets with 10 and 36th in end zone targets with two. However, Schultz had 21 red zone targets (sixth-most) and eight end zone targets (fourth-most). It was more of the same in 2021. Goedert had 17 red zone targets (18th), while Schultz had 26 (third). Goedert had two end zone targets (41st), and Schultz had five (21st).

Since 2021, Goedert has only 10 touchdowns, never scoring more than four in any season. Schultz had 13 in 2021 and 2022 alone, so there is reason for optimism. The tight end position had gotten quite strong over the last year, so while we can expect Goedert to have a bounce-back season, it’s difficult to rank him too much higher than he already is.

Fantasy managers can argue that he should be drafted ahead of Brock Bowers, who is currently being selected at TE11, but that’s just about as high as he can realistically be ranked. However, his TE12 price point is a nice value for fantasy managers because if Moore’s offense does what we expect, he has a good shot of outplaying his current ADP.

Verdict: Fair Price on Dallas Goedert (slight buy)

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