Fantasy Football Breakouts, Busts, and Locks - Philadelphia Eagles 2023 Outlook

The 2023 NFL season is approaching quickly, meaning peak fantasy football draft season is even closer. It's important to evaluate all fantasy options from all 32 teams to ensure you don't miss out on under-the-radar players or select a fantasy asset potentially due for regression in the upcoming season.

The Philadelphia Eagles were one of the best "real life" teams last season and they had no shortage of fantasy football firepower. Quarterback Jalen Hurts, running back Miles Sanders, and wide receiver A.J. Brown Sr. and DeVonta Smith all achieved fantasy excellence and smashed their average draft positions. This year, Hurts, Smith, and Brown are much more expensive to acquire, so their outlooks should be viewed at least a little differently.

In this article, we'll dive into one lock to be a top positional scorer, one breakout candidate, and one potential bust for the 2023 Eagles. Let's dive in!

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Fantasy Football Lock - Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts finished last season as the QB1 in fantasy points per game (25.6). The second-year full-time starter posted a 14-1 record with 3,701 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 760 rushing yards, and 13 rushing scores (second-most in a single season among QBs all-time). He threw just six interceptions and lost two fumbles.

Hurts put up 10 top-five QB weekly finishes in 15 starts and was a top-two scorer among QBs on six occasions. He entered the Patrick Mahomes II and Josh Allen tier of incredible advantages from the QB spot.

The soon-to-be 25-year-old has the perfect mix of rushing upside, elite pass-catchers, and an elite offensive line, so there should be no reason outside of an injury he finishes outside the top-five at the position.

While quarterbacks with limited mobility need high passing touchdown rates to have high-end QB1 seasons, Hurts has already proven he can do it without 40-plus passing scores. That said, his passing touchdowns could come up in 2023. His 4.6% passing touchdown rate ranked 17th among all qualified quarterbacks in 2022.

Hurts' rushing allows him to succeed even if one of his top wide receivers is forced to miss time, so that's a baked-in bonus, too. His current FFPC ADP sits at the end of the second round (22.32) as the second QB off the board.

Honorable Mention: A.J. Brown - While Hurts is the most "bust-proof" offensive player for Philadelphia, Brown feels like a safe lock to finish as a WR1 in 2023 once again. He posted career highs in receptions (88) and receiving yards (1,496) and matched his career-best of 11 receiving touchdowns during his first season in Philadelphia.

Fantasy Football Breakout - D'Andre Swift

D'Andre Swift's fantasy football truthers have been pounding the table for him to break out every season of his career. In Philadelphia, is it finally time for a full-fledged RB1 season? It's possible. Swift's talent and explosiveness have never been the issue. It's been his durability -- although he's never suffered a major injury -- and his standing with the Detroit Lions coaching staff.

Per Playerprofiler.com data, in 2022, Swift finished as a top-10 running back in target share (15.1%), yards per reception (8.1%), yards per route run (1.78), true yards per carry (4.9), breakaway run rate (8.1%), and yards created per touch (4.58).

That said, he was ultra-efficient. He just never got a substantial workload. The Eagles seemingly brought Rashaad Penny in to handle the early down work (while he stays healthy), but Swift is expected to be utilized in passing situations and in hurry-up offense scenarios.

Playing in Philadelphia will give Swift the best matchups of his career in the receiving game. When he does get carries, we can expect him to be ultra-efficient behind the top-ranked Eagles' offensive line. While it's questionable to bank on injuries, Penny likely has the highest injury risk of all running backs heading into 2023.

The-27-year old has never handled more than 119 carries in a season and has missed 40 of his 82 possible games since entering the league in 2018. If Penny has to miss any time, Swift will have a sky-high upside with increased backfield work to go along with his receiving production. At the end of the sixth round (72.12 FFPC ADP), there are few players with more upside waiting to materialize than Swift.

Honorable Mention: Rashaad Penny - If Penny does miraculously stay healthy and plays more than 10 games, he could have RB1 upside, especially in standard leagues. Penny leads the NFL with 6.3 yards per carry since 2021. The next closest running back is Tony Pollard at a 5.5 yards per carry clip. His pass-catching ceiling is limited, but he should see wide-open running lanes behind Jason Kelce, Lane Johnson, Landon Dickerson, and company.

Fantasy Football Bust - Dallas Goedert

While Dallas Goedert is unlikely to be a complete bust, there is a chance he sees a reduced target share in 2023. The 28-year-old tight end already has A.J. Brown Sr. and DeVonta Smith to compete with for targets. The Eagles also brought in one of the league's best-pass-catching running backs in D'Andre Swift, who has been working all over the formation in training camp.

In all likelihood, Swift will operate in the short to intermediate areas of the field and is the more explosive option to get the ball to. Swift has finished no lower than No. 10 in target share for running backs in all three seasons of his career. In 2021, he finished number two in target share at the position. Put simply, he has a history of commanding targets, which usually travels from team to team.

It's difficult to project any of the Eagles' top offensive weapons to bust, but if someone is going to underachieve, it'll likely be Goedert. He's going off the board around pick 60 of the 5th round. His upside appears to be lower than Darren Waller, who goes a few picks later via FFPC ADP. If Goedert ends up on the wrong side of touchdown variance, he could be "just a guy" as a fantasy tight end and far from a real advantage at the position.

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