RADIO
The aim of this article is to help familiarize ourselves with how we can expect the course to play, what kind of skillsets matter most, and who are the best players in the field in those categories. To microwave the food analogy that will drizzle this article throughout, hopefully this piece takes you straight to the lobster when searching through the buffet of golfers to throw onto your DFS plate.
That being said, you can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
The Menu (Course Breakdown)
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club: Par: 70, Yardage: 7,041
This is a theoretical breakdown of how the approach proximities would be clumped together based off a drive of 310 yards on each non-Par 3. This is theoretical and mainly used to get a big-picture idea of where most of the approach shots should come from. If we let the massive 175-200 bucket spill over int0 the 150-175 and 200-225 buckets, about half this week's approach shots will come from 150-225. We will filter on this proximity range further down the article.
The Usual (Course History)
Course history (strokes gained per round) for the last two events in 2021 and 2019. Hideki Matsuyama is the only past winner in the field, with a runner up in his other start. Brendan Steele, Sungjae Im, and Corey Conners all with great performances in their solo starts. Keegan Bradley has the 2nd best average of those who have 8 rounds, with Fleetwood and Morikawa not far behind.
This Week's Specials (Recent Form)
A peak at the top 20 in the four major strokes gained categories over the last 24 rounds. Please remember that for some of these numbers, the last 24 rounds could have taken place several months ago.
Top 20 players gaining the most total strokes over the last 24 rounds.
Top 20 players gaining the most strokes off the tee over the last 24 rounds.
Top 20 players gaining the most strokes on approach over the last 24 rounds.
Top 20 players gaining the most strokes around the green over the last 24 rounds.
Top 20 players gaining the most strokes putting over the last 24 rounds.
Let The Big Dog Eat (Driving Stats)
The Driving Statistics portion of the article includes strokes gained off the tee, distance, accuracy and good drives gained. Any statistic that does not have a "L24" is a baseline stat and are weighted 96% (2022) and 4% (2023) by season. Distance, accuracy, and good drives gained are all stats that have data overlaps from the KFT to PGA Tour.
Top 20 players gaining off the tee
Top 20 players that hit bombs
Top 20 most accurate drivers in the field
Top 20 players gaining good drives
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The Meat and Potatoes (Approach Stats)
Approach. Is. King!
Strokes gained approach is the stat that has the highest correlation to strokes gained total and a good approach player provides consistent performances, usually with a relatively high floor. It is indeed the meat and potatoes of all the stats.
Top 20 in strokes gained approach
Top 20 players in Green in Regulation % out of the fairway
On average, 50ish% of shots will take place between 150 and 225 yards. These are the Top 20 golfers in approach proximity from the fairway.
Top 20 players in Green in Regulation % out of the rough
On average, 50ish% of shots will take place between 150 and 225 yards. These are the Top 20 golfers in approach proximity from the rough.
Eat Your Greens (Putting)
The top 20 best putters in the field.
Top 20 from 5-15 feet
Top 20 on Bentgrass greens
Top 20 Bent Gents (Who putt better on Bent)
Top 20 Not-Bent Gents (Who putt worse on Bent)
Sprinkles and Syrup (Scoring Stats)
Whatever you like on your ice cream or cheesecake, throw a little extra on there with some scoring stats.
Top 20 scorers on medium courses (where par for the top 5 was -10 or better).
The 20 best birdie makers.
The best at playing boring golf, avoiding bogeys.
Who gets it in the hole the fastest on par 5s?
The Fortune Cookie (Above Average in Six Key Stats)
Fortune favors the brave, and these 9 guys appear to be above average in all six key categories used to slim down my player pool.
Hopefully this helped you narrow down your players with ease and success.
Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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