RADIO
The aim of this article is to help familiarize ourselves with how we can expect the course to play, what kind of skillsets matter most, and who are the best players in the field in those categories. To microwave the food analogy that will drizzle this article throughout, hopefully this piece takes you straight to the lobster when searching through the buffet of golfers to throw onto your DFS plate.
I have put in many hours to understand which KFT graduates will be most successful on the PGA Tour and even wrote up the "Korn Ferry Fifty" which has a statistical profile of each KFT graduate. A lot of these golfers will be in the field this week, with the majority of them lacking trustworthy data only having played about eight rounds of PGA Tour golf. That being said, you can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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The Kitchen (Weather Conditions)
Compared to last week, this week is being played in a vacuum. Looks hot and slightly breezy (minimal wind expected), which seems like ideal Mexican golfing conditions. This is not gospel, but gives us a general idea of what to expect.
The Menu (Course Breakdown)
El Camaleón Golf Course at Mayakoba: Par: 71, Yardage: 7,017 Greens: Paspalum
This is a theoretical breakdown of expected proximities for each hole based off a 300 yard drive. It is used to paint a big picture of what general ranges this course will have golfers hitting from. The chances that 33% of shots come from 150-175 is slim, but there's a decent chance that about 45% of the shots come from 125-200 yards, which allows the 33% to spill over into its adjacent buckets.
The model settings
The Usual (Course History)
Brendon Todd, Adam Long, Viktor Hovland, and Matt Kuchar all have gained +2.3 strokes per round in their dozen laps of El Camaleon Golf Course.
Comp courses (min 10 total rounds): Sedgefield CC, TPC Sawgrass, TPC Potomac, TPC River Highlands, TPC Twin Cities.
Webb Simpson (before he got injured) who has never played here before, and Viktor Hovland have easily the best track record on these kinds of courses. Other notables are Brian Harman, Alex Noren, Billy Horschel and Russell Henley.
Some guys who have played rather poorly on similar courses over the last few years.
This Week's Specials (Recent Form)
A peek at the top 20 in the four major strokes gained categories over this season. If a player does not have any rounds but has stats, he gained those strokes at a non- PGA Tour event. I have also included the number of rounds each person has played to help you determine how significant that stat should be. Less rounds = less significant.
Chefs' recommendation: Approach
Top 20 players gaining the most total strokes this season.
Top 20 players gaining the most strokes off the tee this season.
Top 20 players gaining the most strokes on approach this season.
Top 20 players gaining the most strokes around the green this season.
Top 20 players gaining the most strokes putting this season.
Let The Big Dog Eat (Driving Stats)
Any statistic that does not have a pink title is a baseline stat and is weighted 95% (2022) and 5% (2023) by season. The KFT statistics have been watered down by 15% in order to reflect the increased difficulty of the PGA Tour. We had Korn Ferry Tour graduates with much better statistics than Scottie Scheffler, which doesn't make sense, so I did my best to get them to reflect as accurately as possible.
The Driving Statistics portion of the article includes strokes gained off the tee, distance, accuracy and good drives gained.
Chefs' recommendation: Good Drives Gained %
Top 20 players that hit bombs (salaries seem to sync up best with this column)
Top 20 players that hit bombs
Top 20 most accurate drivers in the field
Top 20 players gaining good drives
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The Meat and Potatoes (Approach Stats)
Approach. Is. King! Strokes gained approach is the stat that has the highest correlation to strokes gained total and a good approach player provides consistent performances, usually with a relatively high floor. It is indeed the meat and potatoes of all the stats.
Chefs' Recommendation: Fairway proximities from 125-200
Top 20 in baseline strokes gained approach
Top 20 in proximity from the fairway
Top 20 in proximity from the rough
Scrambled Eggs (Around The Green)
Who likes to scramble their eggs? Who digests their fried eggs best? Lets find out.
*For those of you who noticed that Collin Morikawa has negative ARG ratings but positive metrics for all three phases of around the green play, I have a working theory as to why this is so. For one of the best iron players in the world, Collin is most likely leaving himself much closer to the hole, when around the green, making his proximity numbers seem super impressive, but from those distances he is still below average relative the rest of the field. Again, stats have flaws, and should not be treated as gospel or in a vacuum, but they do help us understand where certain golfers struggle or succeed when additional context is added.
Chefs Recommendation: ARG
The 20 best around the green
The 20 best from the fringe
The 20 best from the sand
The 20 best from the rough
Eat Your Greens (Putting)
Each week we visit a green surface that has specific grass. Taylor Montgomery is easily the best putter in this field right now, but we can expect his numbers to regress a little as he had an outlier putting performance at the Fortinet, gaining 10+ strokes on the green, a feat only three other golfers achieved all of last season.
Also, not enough rounds have been played on Paspalum green's so not going to include those this week.
Chefs Recommendation: Putting from 5-15 feet
The 20 best putters in the field.
The 20 worst putters in the field.
The 20 best inside 5 feet
The 20 best from 5-15 feet (the money range)
Sprinkles and Syrup (Scoring Stats)
Whatever you like on your ice cream or cheesecake, throw a little extra on there with some scoring stats.
*Please note that some of these stats come from KFT events, which explains why we have six KFT guys ahead of Russell Henley when it comes to easy scoring conditions. Again, it paints a picture with a broad brush, showing us that these KFT guys did their best work on easy courses.
Chefs' Recommendation: Birdie or Better %
Top 20 scorers on easy courses (where par for the top 5 was -15 or better).
The 20 best birdie makers.
The best at playing boring golf, avoiding bogeys.
Who gets it in the hole the fastest on par 5s?
The Fortune Cookie Filter (Above Average in Six Key Stats)
Fortune favors the brave, and these guys appear to be above average in all six key categories that were recommended by the chef. Last week we had Seamus in our Fortune Cookie Filter and he landed up winning. Is there another winner in the Fortune Cookie Filter this week?
- Course History
- Recent Approach
- Easy Scoring Conditions
- Good Drives Gained
- Putting 5-15 feet
- Birdie or Better %
Hopefully this helped you narrow down your players with ease and success.
Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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