RADIO
Hayden Buckley is driving himself to victory, ranking fifth in strokes gained off the tee through three rounds. He also ranks eighth in strokes gained putting, which is an ominous sign considering he ranked 96th in SG: P entering the week. The chances of his putter behaving once again with a nervy, two-stroke lead are slim. So here we are once again, looking at guys to target further down the leaderboard for our Round 4 showdown lineups.
The general logic for showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I gravitated towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership. Adding finishing positions to the equation makes it even more fun.
You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and at times, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the tournament's Ballers and Crawlers and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
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Finishing Position Points vs. Ownership
Round 4 showdown adds the element of finishing position points to the mix. It provides an immense leverage opportunity for those of us brave enough to click on names with a T30 associated with them. There is a five-point difference between second place and 15th place, the points equivalent of one extra birdie in a player's round. If somebody sitting outside the top 20 entering Round 4 has an amazing day, making only one extra birdie than the guys in the top five, they essentially nullify the finishing position advantage. Did we mention that they will also come in at a quarter of the ownership?
Ownership in DFS is king. If you are part of the 2% of the field that has John Huh shooting -9, 98% of the field is missing out on those points. This is where money is made in DFS and if we ignore finishing position points for the most part, there is a decent chance that one of the top points scorers is sitting outside the top 10 entering Round 4. There will be instances where the leaders continue to play well, and that is not ideal, but how many times have we seen a 45% owned overnight leader have his nerves get the better of him and shoot over par? In this scenario, you have a major edge over half the field.
Round 3 Ownership Analysis
Round 3 DraftKings Points
Round 3 Highest Ownership
Round 3 Lowest Ownership > 40 points
Round 4 Power Rankings
The Power Rankings for Round 4:
ps: Click here for a full field power rankings cheat sheet
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The Chalk Squad
These are dudes who will inherently receive the most ownership tomorrow, but if we look at a few guys with monster power ratings a little further down the board, they could win us a showdown slate tomorrow if things break right.
$10,000: Nobody.
$9,000: Taylor Montgomery. Let's take a shot on a guy who is not a fan of the spotlight, falling down the R3 leaderboard today. He is five shots back and can easily put himself into the top five tomorrow without a little less pressure on his game. We like a guy who can putt lights out in this situation.
$8,000: Nobody.
$7,000: Nobody.
$6,000: Nobody.
The Pivot People
Nobody is in the top 10. A slate breaker will be found in one of these names. Outside the top 10, unanchored by any significant ownership, these nimble non-contenders can still have the round of the day and sneak into the top five, which is how we take down a GPP. We are going to roll out most of these guys, particularly:
$10,000:
$9,000: Hideki Matsuyama (this dude climbs R4 leaderboards like Alex Honald (the most badass free solo rock climber currently alive).
$8,000: J.J. Spaun, Adam Scott.
$7,000: All of them.
$6,000: Same as the $7K range, let's ride these guys like a surfboard.
The Leverage Lads
It's our last chance for Tom Hoge and Co. to have that outlier round we have been chasing all week long. By default (score), these guys have landed up in the leverage lads section, but there are several $9K guys in this range who will be clicked on simply to avoid leaving salary on the table, as there are only three other $9K guys in the other sections of this article.
$10,000:
$9,000: Corey Conners and Russell Henley time, baby. We have both for a T20 in our Breaking $100 article and would love an impressive round them. Also, Tom Hoge.
$8,000: Let's finally load up on Cameron Davis, who should fly up the leaderboard if his putter heats up.
$7,000: Kurt Kitayama, Adam Svensson, Brenden Steele, Patton Kizzire.
$6,000: Eric Cole, Andrew Novak, and Danny Lee.
Good luck, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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