RADIO
The 2019 PGA Championship is teeing off at the notorious Bethpage Black Course on Long Island, New York. Join in the fun this weekend by playing props on Monkey Knife Fight.
It’s a different look for the PGA, with the Championship moving to mid-May. It was typically a late-season event, usually played in August, but times are changing on tour and made more sense to find a window in which to slot this major between The Masters and The U.S. Open.
Speaking of The Masters, Tiger Woods is set to play his first event since winning at Augusta, which makes for a more compelling tournament, especially if a healthy Tiger can contend. In any case, the field is as strong as one would expect for a major championship and the Bethpage Black Course should prove to be a good test. Here are some angles to consider before Thursday’s action.
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PGA CHAMPIONSHIP
OVER/UNDERS
Ian Poulter OVER 68.5 STROKES – The veteran is having a strong 2019 season, driven by his consistency from tee to green, and has finished in the Top 25 in 10 of his past 12 PGA events. At the same time, in his past dozen tournaments, Poulter has shot 68 or better four times in the first round. Mix in what is usually a difficult course and that’s a tough one to squeeze under.
Jordan Spieth UNDER 4.5 BIRDIE OR BETTER – While Spieth’s birdie average of 4.40 puts him right in range of this, the anticipated difficulty of the course, coupled with Spieth’s recent struggles – his best finish in his past dozen tournaments was a tie for 21st at The Masters – makes it hard to bank on Spieth going low right off the start.
Dustin Johnson UNDER 68.5 STROKES – He’s the top-ranked player in the world, and his scoring average of 69.564 ranks second on the tour. There is some accounting for Bethpage Black being a notoriously difficult course, but it’s also a par 70 and Johnson has shot 68 or better in five of his past eight rounds.
RAPID FIRE
Tiger Woods -0.5 Birdie or Better vs. Tommy Fleetwood – Eldrick hasn’t played on tour since winning The Masters but he sure looked good at Augusta and his birdie average of 4.6 per round (26.39% birdie or better) gives him a notable advantage over Fleetwood, who sits at 3.5 birdies per round (20.83% birdie or better).
Justin Rose +0.5 Par or Better vs. Kevin Kisner – Though he missed the cut at The Masters, Rose has finished in the Top 10 in six of his past nine tournaments, but he records a bogey, on average, on 12.61% of holes, which is already better than Kisner (14.01%)
Dustin Johnson +0.5 Par or Better vs. Jon Rahm – There is no one on tour who avoids bogeys like DJ, he’s literally ranked first with a bogey percentage of 11.11%. While Rahm is also good by this measure, ranked 13th at 12.92%, Johnson should be the favorite so getting the extra half hole as an underdog is an opportunity not to be missed.
Brooks Koepka +0.5 Birdie or Better vs. Jon Rahm – They are relatively close in their ability to get under par, but Koepka has managed to do so 26.63% of the time, which is tied for third on tour, and Rahm is just a little further back at 25.28%, ranking 17th. Koepka can be a little hit and miss – he has four top-five finishes in his past 11 tournaments, but also has three in which he’s either missed the cut or finished outside the Top 50 – so that might present an opening for Rahm, but Koepka’s track record in Majors (he’s the defending champion of the PGA Championship) has been strong, so he’s the play here.
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