RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! When the dust settled on another crazy week at Muirfield Village, I was one Jon Rahm birdie away from winning that Birdie or Better prop. Even better? If that penalty had not been assessed on Sunday, that bogey becomes a birdie instead, and we win the prop. Isn't golf fun?! Sometimes you just have to laugh it off and get on to the next week, so that's what we'll do. Congrats to Rahm!
Using my PGA DFS and betting research for both DraftKings and handicapping, I'll look into some of the Monkey Knife Fight prop bets for the 3M Open to see which posted numbers make sense to take a stand on. You can use this advice to place your own wagers on MKF. As always, send any questions, comments, or banter my way on Twitter. You can find me @BellRoto.
Now let's get to some PGA Monkey Knife Fight prop bet picks for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities!
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Pick 1: More or Less (2.5x Prize)
Birdies or Better: Tony Finau MORE than 19.5
Finau's game is in spectacular shape, as evidenced by much of the first three rounds at Muirfield Village last week. There won't be nearly as many obstacles and challenges for the long-hitter in Minnesota, so I expect him to take advantage of good looks for all four days. With his Par 5 ability through the roof, Finau should easily eclipse 20 birdies if he can get over the heartbreak from last week.
Birdies or Better: Brooks Koepka LESS than 19.5
Koepka admitted to his knee not being back to normal despite his surgery and long recovery, and that doesn't really surprise me, as his game has been a roller coaster week-to-week. Pair that with the fact that Brooks has lost his chance to play in the FedEx Cup Playoffs, and I'm going to sit this one out. He may make the cut, but I don't think we see a scoring barrage from Koepka this week.
Pick 2: Rapidfire (4x Prize)
More Birdies or Better: Tommy Fleetwood (+0.5) over Dustin Johnson
Despite his victory at the Travelers, I still don't think DJ's game is all the way back. His putting hasn't been stellar, and he's been very inconsistent with irons week to week. Meanwhile, we haven't seen much of Fleetwood since the layoff, but we know him as one of the better iron players on tour. I'll take the unknown here and hope that Johnson doesn't put it all together for the second time in three events.
More Birdies or Better: Paul Casey (+0.5) over Tony Finau
I may be hedging my bets a little here, but I think Paul Casey is set up really well for a big bounce-back spot at TPC Twin Cities. Casey would've made the cut easily had it not been for a 5-over score on a Par 3 early on Friday morning. That led to a brutal missed cut despite some impressive birdies on a tough course. Casey can strike his irons with the best of them, which should give him plenty of birdie opportunities on a much easier track in Minnesota.
More Birdies or Better: Erik Van Rooyen (+0.5) over Brooks Koepka
You already know about my stance on fading Brooks Koepka, and a lot of this pick has to do with that. I will say that I also like Van Rooyen a lot this week, as he has the skill set to take this course apart and put up birdies in bunches. EVR played this track hundreds of times in college at the University of Minnesota, and he's had some glimpses of positive ball-striking the last couple events. I'm hopping on now!
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