RADIO
Do we get a winner from the final pairing, which consists of the Ryder Cup duo of Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele? Or do we see Will Zalatoris get his first win since the back surgery that rectified the pain that saw him withdraw from the Masters in 2023?
We have a wild leaderboard, as Patrick Cantlay saw his five-shot lead entering Round 3 shrink to a pair of strokes after a lackluster -1 under par 70. There are now a lot more golfers who can win this tournament, which should make for a fun final round.
You can find me on Twitter/X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and at times, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it.
Finishing Position Points vs. Ownership
The general logic for showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. We will also be using my DFS Showdown Model, which is available for premium members on the website and in our discord. Code NEW will get you 30% off our PGA platinum package, which ends up being $17.40 a month. Basically a "top-10 golfer in the world priced in the $7K range" kinda value, if you want my honest opinion.
Round 4 showdown adds the element of finishing position points to the mix. It provides an immense leverage opportunity for those of us brave enough to click on names with a T30 associated with them. There is a five-point difference between second place and 15th place, the points equivalent of one extra birdie in a player's round. If somebody sitting outside the top 20 entering Round 4 has an amazing day, making only one extra birdie than the guys in the top five, they essentially nullify the finishing position advantage. Did we mention that they will also come in at a quarter of the ownership?
Ownership in DFS is king. If you are part of the 2% of the field that has John Huh shooting -9, 98% of the field is missing out on those points. This is where money is made in DFS and if we ignore finishing position points for the most part, there is a decent chance that one of the top points scorers is sitting outside the top 10 entering Round 4. There will be instances where the leaders continue to play well, and that is not ideal, but how many times have we seen a 45% owned overnight leader have his nerves get the better of him and shoot over par? In this scenario, you have a major edge over half the field.
Bozo Brainwash Brigade
If I were to guess the most duplicated lineup tomorrow, this is most likely it. Folks... don't be like the 25+ people who play these six guys in the same lineup. How do you expect to profit when you enter a $5 entry to win and split it with 1.5% of the field ... IF you it the nutz? The chance the leaderboard ends up looking like this tomorrow is VERY unlikely! Don't be a part of the Bozo Brainwash Brigade, please.
Round 4 Strategy
There is no real weather edge this Round 4 slate, as wind will remain relatively calm all day. Ownership leverage is going to be key, as rostering a low-owned lineup is going to ensure that when your lineup pops off, you don't have to share the payouts with multiple other entrants.
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Round 4 Power Rankings
The Power Rankings for Round 4
These are the golfers I will be looking to slot into my lineups for Round 4. The ownership numbers are projected for R4 of $5 PGA SHOWDOWN SINGLE ENTRY, which is important to note, as contest size and entry fee impacts the ownership numbers of different golfers across the contests. Click here for a full field power rankings that is part of the DFS Showdown Model on RotoBaller's website.
$10,000+
Favorite play: Rory McIlroy lurking down the leaderboard is one of the scarier DFS options in golf. He is capable of going nuclear in a final round and really playing sensational golf when he plays freely. He gets to start on first base with the way he drives a golf ball. He has had good and bad rounds at this venue and hopefully he can add to the good round column after tomorrow.
Other considerations: Scottie Scheffler is the only other option as we are going to be fading Xander and Cantlay, who are going to likely be two of the three highest-owned golfers on the slate.
$9,000+
Favorite play: Max Homa opened his R3 with an eagle and then went on to bogey is next three holes. At this course, with the way he can putt, Homa could get off to a really fast start and rival the best round of the day, racing up the board with a white lightning putter that has one of the better spike putting scores in the field.
Finding the winner: Will Zalatoris sits in T2 and the likelihood that either Cantlay, Schauffele, or Zalatoris end up in the optimal lineup tomorrow is very good. We are going to hope that the final pairing trips all over each other and Zalatoris ball strikes this course to death and rolls in a few more putts with the broomstick, which he typically struggled with under pressure before making the change. This may be the first time he gets to test the new putter in a pressure-cooked environment.
Other considerations: Ludvig Aberg, Tony Finau
$8,000+
Favorite play: Adam Scott sits in T15 and after Round 1, he looked like he may be headed for a missed cut. He has steadily improved each day and now he is looking to finish off really strong and potentially sneak into the top five with some luck at the top of the board and some scorching golf at a venue that he has won at twice before!
Other considerations: Sam Burns, Sahith Theegala, Tom Kim, J.T. Poston
$7,000+
Favorite play: Byeong Hun An is one of the most explosive golfers in the field. He has tons of power and tons of bustling birdies in his bag of tricks, which has seen him really step on the gas for a few rounds this year. If he can get the putter rolling early, the ball striking can really add the complementary strokes gained needed to have the round of the day.
Other considerations: Russell Henley
$6,000+
Favorite play: Christiaan Bezuidenhout is starting to strike his irons at a really ridiculous rate this year. He ranks 12th in the field in SG Approach and can also putt lights out when he gets in the groove. He sits in T20 and is totally capable of sneaking through the back door of a top 10 with some sizzling irons and a little South African short game magic.
Other considerations: Nick Taylor, Emiliano Grillo, Lee Hodges, Gary Woodland
Good luck tomorrow, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!
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