RADIO
Keegan Bradley sits -21 on the leaderboard ahead of Chez Reavie, who is -20. Next up is Patrick Cantlay who sits all the way in 3rd place 5 shots back at -16. If the two guys in the front of the leaderboard land up stumbling, things could get real exciting for the tomorrow's showdown slate. Can Keegan hold on in the Northeast? Can Chez win this event again? Does somebody nearby shoot another -10 round to surge up the leaderboard? Hopefully one of the guys we roster tomorrow can be the "Yes" to our final question.
The general logic for showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. We will also be using my DFS Showdown Model which is available for premium members on the website and in our discord.
You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and at times, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the tournament's Ballers and Crawlers and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
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Round 4 showdown adds the element of finishing position points to the mix. It provides an immense leverage opportunity for those of us brave enough to click on names with a T30 associated with them. There is a five-point difference between second place and 15th place, the points equivalent of one extra birdie in a player's round. If somebody sitting outside the top 20 entering Round 4 has an amazing day, making only one extra birdie than the guys in the top five, they essentially nullify the finishing position advantage. Did we mention that they will also come in at a quarter of the ownership?
Ownership in DFS is king. If you are part of the 2% of the field that has John Huh shooting -9, 98% of the field is missing out on those points. This is where money is made in DFS and if we ignore finishing position points for the most part, there is a decent chance that one of the top points scorers is sitting outside the top 10 entering Round 4. There will be instances where the leaders continue to play well, and that is not ideal, but how many times have we seen a 45% owned overnight leader have his nerves get the better of him and shoot over par? In this scenario, you have a major edge over half the field.
Now, as much as we preach to avoid chasing ownership points, there are always exceptions to the rule and the beast that is Oak Hill CC is just that. Time for some quick math. The average points scored in R3 of the Byron Nelson was 41. Today, the field average was 21 points, on the easiest of the 3 days played so far.
So, we have a 20-point difference in average points between the two tournaments. The average of the points available for top 10 finishes is 8, which is 16% of the total points scored at the Byron and 28% of the available projected points in R4 tomorrow. A 12% increase across six roster spots is 72% which is basically 3/4 of a 7th roster spot. We are probably going to want to try roster as many guys who have a legitimate shot at making it into the top-10 tomorrow. More on this below.
Round 4 Strategy
Weather seems like a non-factor tomorrow with temps not baking out the course at all. The scores in the afternoon in R3 were -0.3 lower than the scores in the AM despite the wind picking up in the afternoon. Assuming things remain the same, we are not expecting a weather edge in R4.
With so many birdies out there and multiple 60s being recorded this week, we can dive deeper down the leaderboard in anticipation of a slate breaker round at low ownership.
Round 4 Power Rankings
The Power Rankings for Round 4:
These are the golfers I will be looking to slot into my lineups for round 4. The ownership numbers are projected for R4 of $5 PGA SHOWDOWN $12K CADDIE [SINGLE ENTRY] (ROUND 3), which is important to note, as contest size and entry fee impacts the ownership numbers of different golfers across the contests. Click here for a full field power rankings that is part of the DFS Showdown Model on RotoBaller's website.
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$10,000+
Favorite play: Scottie Scheffler sits in T7 and despite his hefty price tag, he provides one of the most consistent outputs on the slate at an extremely high level. He will be in T7, 7 shots back, and if he has an outlier round with the putter, we know he will have birdie look after birdie look. He could come in at half the ownership of Patrick Cantlay, who sits in third place and is much more affordable.
Other considerations: Rory McIlroy sits in T15 and despite his recent struggles in R4, we can expect him to charge up the leaderboard with little pressure on his shoulders. Xander Schauffele is $10,100 and is in T18 which should reduce his ownership and we have seen Xander break US Open records about a week ago.
$9,000+
Favorite play: Viktor Hovland will most likely not win tomorrow all the way in T33, but we can expect the Norwegian to rattle off some seriously low round in the morning before the leaders get through the turn. He is a birdie machine and sits far enough out of contention that we could see a round that was uninhibited by any pressure.
Other considerations: Tony Finau will find himself in T26 before the round starts and Sungjae Im is going to be a popular yet reliable option at this price point at T18. Sahith Theegala is one of the leading birdie makers in the field and if he can go nuclear on a course he finished T2 at just over a year ago, we can reap the rewards at some low ownership. Eric Cole made an 8 on a par 4 today and should be right in the mix had that hole not derailed his round.
$8,000+
Favorite play: Denny McCarthy is in T4 after a rather unrewarding R3. He has been on fire throughout the tournament and we can expect the best putter in the field over the last 24 rounds to do his thing on the greens in round 4, knowing he has ground to make up.
Other considerations: Matt Fitzpatrick is at -6 in T47 but we have seen him work some magic in R4 in the past, and if the ball striking and putter can collaborate for 18 holes, who knows what he can shoot. Wyndham Clark, Hideki Matsuyama, Tom Kim, and Corey Conners will all find themselves in my player pool for 20+ entry contests.
$7,000+
Favorite play: Jason Day seems to be playing much better golf in the last two rounds since an open 70. He is capable of going lights out with the putter and has one of the better R4 strokes gained averages in the field. He is also a monster at making birdies when he feels like he is in the mood.
Other considerations: Cameron Young is flirting with disaster and desirability like a handsome highschooler, while Austin Eckroat and Emiliano Grillo are not that far out of a big round scooting them into the top 10 of the leaderboard.
$6,000+
Favorite play: Sepp Straka can very easily race up the leaderboard in R4 like he has shown in the past. He will hardly be owned and is very capable of rattling off a lot of birdies if he gets hot with the putter.
Other considerations: Ben Martin owns one of the worst R4 scoring averages, but sitting way outside the top of the leaderboard we can expect some fireworks from the man who is price at $6,900.
Good luck tomorrow, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!
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