RADIO
Rickie Fowler will be the bright orange target the rest of the field will be looking to chase down in final round of the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Collin Morikawa sits in T6, 4 shots back as one of the only few stars near the top of the board. Birdies will be flying low tomorrow and no lead is safe, even if you are the best version of Rickie Fowler we have seen in long time.
The general logic for showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. We will also be using my DFS Showdown Model which is available for premium members on the website and in our discord.
You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and at times, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the tournament's Ballers and Crawlers and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
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Round 4 showdown adds the element of finishing position points to the mix. It provides an immense leverage opportunity for those of us brave enough to click on names with a T30 associated with them. There is a five-point difference between second place and 15th place, the points equivalent of one extra birdie in a player's round. If somebody sitting outside the top 20 entering Round 4 has an amazing day, making only one extra birdie than the guys in the top five, they essentially nullify the finishing position advantage. Did we mention that they will also come in at a quarter of the ownership?
Ownership in DFS is king. If you are part of the 2% of the field that has John Huh shooting -9, 98% of the field is missing out on those points. This is where money is made in DFS and if we ignore finishing position points for the most part, there is a decent chance that one of the top points scorers is sitting outside the top 10 entering Round 4. There will be instances where the leaders continue to play well, and that is not ideal, but how many times have we seen a 45% owned overnight leader have his nerves get the better of him and shoot over par? In this scenario, you have a major edge over half the field.
Round 4 Strategy
They are playing in threesomes off both tees so no weather edge. We are going to pick a few inside the top 10 on the leaderboard and rotate in a bunch of high upside options sitting T11 or worse.
Round 4 Power Rankings
The Power Rankings for Round 4:
These are the golfers I will be looking to slot into my lineups for round 4. The ownership numbers are projected for R4 of $5 PGA SHOWDOWN $12K CADDIE [SINGLE ENTRY] (ROUND 3), which is important to note, as contest size and entry fee impacts the ownership numbers of different golfers across the contests. Click here for a full field power rankings that is part of the DFS Showdown Model on RotoBaller's website.
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$10,000+
Favorite play: Collin Morikawa sits 4 shots back in T6 and has the second-best R4 scoring. He is also capable of the odd spike round on the greens. With Rickie sitting in first place, he should garner a lot of ownership from Collin.
Other considerations: Max Homa and Sungjae Im sit outside the top 20 and can provide some fireworks at relatively low ownership.
$9,000+
Favorite play: Cameron Davis has the best round 4 scoring average of those that made the cut. He sits in T17th which still provides some upside if he can get into the top-10.
Other considerations: Brian Harman will be our other lone ranger in the $9k range as we have loaded up in the $10k range.
$8,000+
Favorite play: Adam Schenk sits in T11 with the putting ability to sink some long ones. Six shots back is a little far back to win this thing, but if we get the leaders who get off to a slow start, who knows what guys just a few shots back can do on a course like this.
Other considerations: Aaron Rai, Taylor Moore and Chris Kirk will be where we try and flirt with some win equity with their leaderboard position.
$7,000+
Favorite play: Chez Reavie is also one of the few people that light it up on the greens in this range after playing really well all week. He is also very affordable at $7,300.
Other considerations: Davis Riley, Sam Ryder and Nate Lashley will handle the other roster spots in this price range at some lower ownership.
$6,000+
Favorite play: Satoshi Kodaira just tends to pop on leaderboards in the most random of ways. He is T26 and at $6,400 a wild run from the Japanese star could see him make bunches of birdies and sneak into the top-10 at minimal ownership.
Other considerations: Lucas Glover and Peter Malnati provide some leaderboard leverage with some opportunity to get overlooked as there are other more appealing $6k options.
Good luck tomorrow, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!
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