RADIO
Matt Fitzpatrick and Harbour Town Fitz Matt... (I had to try it). Anyway, he shot a casual bogey-free 63 and collected 67 points for showdown contestants that had him in their player pool on route to taking the overnight lead of the RBC Heritage (-14). Patrick Cantlay sits 1 shot back of Fitz at -13 with the defending champ, Jordan Spieth, one more stroke back in solo 3rd (-12). We are in for some star-studded fireworks tomorrow.
The general logic for showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. We will also be using my DFS Showdown Model which is available for premium members on the website and in our discord.
You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and at times, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the tournament's Ballers and Crawlers and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
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Finishing Position Points vs. Ownership
Round 4 showdown adds the element of finishing position points to the mix. It provides an immense leverage opportunity for those of us brave enough to click on names with a T30 associated with them. There is a five-point difference between second place and 15th place, the points equivalent of one extra birdie in a player's round. If somebody sitting outside the top 20 entering Round 4 has an amazing day, making only one extra birdie than the guys in the top five, they essentially nullify the finishing position advantage. Did we mention that they will also come in at a quarter of the ownership?
Ownership in DFS is king. If you are part of the 2% of the field that has John Huh shooting -9, 98% of the field is missing out on those points. This is where money is made in DFS and if we ignore finishing position points for the most part, there is a decent chance that one of the top points scorers is sitting outside the top 10 entering Round 4. There will be instances where the leaders continue to play well, and that is not ideal, but how many times have we seen a 45% owned overnight leader have his nerves get the better of him and shoot over par? In this scenario, you have a major edge over half the field.
Round 4 Power Rankings
The Power Rankings for Round 4:
These are the golfers I will be looking to slot into my lineups for round 4. The ownership numbers are projected for R4 of $7.5K SHORT GAME [20 ENTRY MAX], which is important to note, as contest size and entry fee impacts the ownership numbers of different golfers across the contests. Click here for a full field power rankings that is part of the DFS Showdown Model on RotoBaller's website.
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Top 10 Candidates (Chalk)
$10,000+: Scottie Scheffler sits in 4th place and with a win, becomes world No. 1 yet again. He is only 3 shots back and if we are going to go heavy on a $10k golfer inside the top-10, it is going to be a Scheffler who will be significantly less owned than Cantlay.
$9,000: Xander Schauffele has been pretty uninspiring on the greens despite being one of the best iron players this week. If the putter heats up, he can race up this leaderboard.
$8,000: Matt Kuchar and Rickie Fowler
$7,000: Cameron Davis has been incredibly inconsistent since returning to his now hit-and-miss form after admitting he was not healthy. He could win this thing from here or could finish outside the top-40 with his range of outcomes being pretty broad.
$6,000: Nobody.
Top 10-20 (Pivots)
$10,000+:
$9,000: Sungjae Im is leading the field from tee-to-green but seemingly can't make a putt. Same situation as Xander.
$8,000:
$7,000: Brian Harman.
$6,000: Patton Kizzire.
Outside Top 20 (Leverage)
$10,000+: Would it be surprising if Jon Rahm races up the leaderboard and finished inside the top-3?
$9,000: Tony Finau seems to have a governor on his short game through three rounds. If he can rev up that putter in the final round we could see a slate-breaker type round from Big Tone. Cameron Young has also had some tough times in the short game department and really hasn't got out of 2nd gear all week. Both these race cars are ready to hit the open road early in the morning and set a number.
$8,000: Justin Rose, Sahith Theegala, and Shane Lowry.
$7,000: Coery Conners has one of the best R4 scoring averages in on this slate and sits close enough to the top of the leaderboard to potentially finish inside the top-10 if he has a great round of golf. Chris Kirk, Wyndham Clark, Ben Griffin, and Nick Taylor.
$6,000: Brendon Todd shot -3 today with a double on hole 1 ... for showing up late to his tee time... (bro?). Lee Hodges will round out the $6k range for us.
Good luck tomorrow, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!
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