X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

PGA DFS Picks- Round 4 Showdown for 2023 RBC Canadian Open.

Folks, I have never wanted to attend a tournament more than wanting to go to the RBC Canadian Open. It seems like an absolute hoot. Nick Taylor charged up the leaderboard this morning taking the lead of the tournament before the leaders had even teed off. He shot a -9 (63) that was bogey free and driven by some stellar iron play that was backed up by a trusty putter that he did not have in R1. Tommy Fleetwood shot a 64 and did so gaining 4.5 strokes putting, which puts him in a precarious position heading into R4 as he averages negative strokes gained on Sundays. C.T. Pan leads the way with a two shot lead at -14 playing in his 4th event of the year, while 7 golfers are tied for T2. Fun times heading into Sunday.

The general logic for showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. We will also be using my DFS Showdown Model which is available for premium members on the website and in our discord.

You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and at times, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the tournament's Ballers and Crawlers and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

Finishing Position Points vs. Ownership

Round 4 showdown adds the element of finishing position points to the mix. It provides an immense leverage opportunity for those of us brave enough to click on names with a T30 associated with them. There is a five-point difference between second place and 15th place, the points equivalent of one extra birdie in a player's round. If somebody sitting outside the top 20 entering Round 4 has an amazing day, making only one extra birdie than the guys in the top five, they essentially nullify the finishing position advantage. Did we mention that they will also come in at a quarter of the ownership?

Ownership in DFS is king. If you are part of the 2% of the field that has John Huh shooting -9, 98% of the field is missing out on those points. This is where money is made in DFS and if we ignore finishing position points for the most part, there is a decent chance that one of the top points scorers is sitting outside the top 10 entering Round 4. There will be instances where the leaders continue to play well, and that is not ideal, but how many times have we seen a 45% owned overnight leader have his nerves get the better of him and shoot over par? In this scenario, you have a major edge over half the field.

Now, as much as we preach to avoid chasing ownership points, there are always exceptions to the rule and the beast that is Oak Hill CC is just that. Time for some quick math. The average points scored in R3 of the Byron Nelson was 41. Today, the field average was 21 points, on the easiest of the 3 days played so far.

So, we have a 20-point difference in average points between the two tournaments. The average of the points available for top 10 finishes is 8, which is 16% of the total points scored at the Byron and 28% of the available projected points in R4 tomorrow. A 12% increase across six roster spots is 72% which is basically 3/4 of a 7th roster spot. We are probably going to want to try roster as many guys who have a legitimate shot at making it into the top-10 tomorrow. More on this below.

 

Round 4 Strategy

Weather seems like a non-factor tomorrow with temps not baking out the course at all.

 

Round 4 Power Rankings

The Power Rankings for Round 4:

These are the golfers I will be looking to slot into my lineups for round 4. The ownership numbers are projected for R4 of $5 PGA SHOWDOWN $12K CADDIE [SINGLE ENTRY] (ROUND 3), which is important to note, as contest size and entry fee impacts the ownership numbers of different golfers across the contests. Click here for a full field power rankings that is part of the DFS Showdown Model on RotoBaller's website.

 

 

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Byron by using the discount code MANIAC when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry. Spencer is absolutely crushing out of the gate in 2022!

 

$10,000+

Tyrrell Hatton let us down big time yesterday. He just never showed up to the party and as a result we should see some ownership relief despite recording the worst round of the day for those sitting inside the top 20. It is time for redemption bro beans... ... ... yes, we are not happy with you so you get multiple ellipses ... ...

Rory McIlroy remains an enigma, gaining 5 strokes tee-t0-green after gaining over 5 strokes putting the first two rounds. The putter let him down today, as we hoped, but he his driver continues to be a cheat code... He is going to be mega chalky tomorrow and despite every round seemingly hanging on by a thread, he sits atop the leaderboard. We are hoping for a meltdown to bust the slate wide open.

$9,000+

Go get em Justin Rose! Despite gaining no strokes off the tee, he continues to strike his irons really well and should find himself comfortable in contention tomorrow. Hopefully Matt Fitzpatrick can dial up the birdie baramoter tomorrow and shoot himself up the leaderboard as a low owned option in the $9k range, sitting in T20. Corey Conners played similarly to Tyrrell but we were not on him last round, so going to him for R4 feels less "you owe me, BRO!" than we feel with the fiesty Englishman in the $10k range.

Shane Lowry plays some of his best golf in R4 and we are begging Sahith Theegala to apply his world class chess skills to his driving course management - your queen (driver) is hobbled my dude, so leave her in the bag and maybe work some magic with the other pieces that you wield so wonderfully. He has lost the 4th most strokes off the tee this week.

 

$8,000+

Ludvig Aberg is going to be a super start. Not a lot of stats to back that up, but he seems like he has Cam Young power, but can actually putt. b has also been a stalwart in the DFS world and sits in a "no where land" of T24 but could easily storm up the leaderboard tomorrow with the way he has been playing lately.

$7,000+

Nick Taylor is just playing too good right now to leave off the card at $7,600. He will be chalk, but we saw what he can do when in contention at the WMPO. Brandon Wu is T11 and ready to surge up that leaderboard with Nate Lashley not far behind him. Carson Young is playing such good golf right now and is in T24 which is a fiery round away from a T10. These will all be chalky plays, but so be it, its R4 - just make sure you construct your lineups with one or two single digit owned golfers (next up).

Single digit ownership will come in the form of Akshay Bhatia, SH Kim, Alex Smalley, Harry Hall, Garrick Higgo, Dylan Wu, and Peter Malnati. They can all be sprinkled into lineups, as one of them will hopefully have a super low round tomorrow with no pressure on their shoulders, way out the mix.

$6,000+

Harrison Endycott seems to be the only $6k golfer we like for R4. We have a lot of cheap $7k guys above, which should help save some salary.

Good luck tomorrow, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!

  Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cole Perfetti18 mins ago

Tallies Goal, Assist In Victory
Karel Vejmelka29 mins ago

Earns Victory On Sunday
Jordan Kyrou37 mins ago

Tallies Three Points On Sunday
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins41 mins ago

Dishes Out Three Helpers
Cale Makar49 mins ago

Tallies Three Points On Sunday
Dmitry Kulikov56 mins ago

Injured On Sunday
NASCAR3 hours ago

Bubba Wallace Wrecked at Las Vegas, but Showed Promising Speed
Alex Bowman3 hours ago

Recovered From Loose Wheel to Finish Seventh
Austin Cindric3 hours ago

Won Stage 1, but Loose Wheel Foiled Victory Bid
William Byron3 hours ago

Lost Las Vegas Race on Strategy, but Still Expanded Points Lead
Ryan Preece3 hours ago

Earned Best Career Non-Drafting Oval Finish at Las Vegas
Mookie Betts8 hours ago

Won't Play In Tokyo Series Against Cubs
Tee Higgins8 hours ago

Becomes Highest-Paid WR2 In NFL History
Ja'Marr Chase8 hours ago

Bengals Make Ja'Marr Chase The Highest-Paid Non-QB In NFL History
Brandin Podziemski9 hours ago

On Track To Return Tuesday
Christian Braun9 hours ago

Tagged As Probable On Injury Report
Aaron Gordon9 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Monday
Jamal Murray9 hours ago

Iffy For Monday
Nikola Jokić9 hours ago

Nikola Jokic May Sit Out Meeting With Warriors
Quinten Post9 hours ago

Uncertain For Monday
Stephen Curry9 hours ago

Questionable To Play On Monday
Vince Williams Jr.11 hours ago

Returning On Monday
Coby White11 hours ago

Tagged As Probable For Monday
Josh Giddey11 hours ago

Doubtful For Monday
Gary Trent Jr.11 hours ago

Cleared For Sunday
Scotty Pippen Jr.11 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Monday
Ja Morant11 hours ago

Won't Play Monday
Aaron Nesmith12 hours ago

Questionable Versus Minnesota
Tyrese Haliburton12 hours ago

On The Injury Report For Monday Night
Michael Tonkin12 hours ago

Will Open Season On Injured List
Aaron Wiggins12 hours ago

Returns To Action Against Bucks
Michel Otañez12 hours ago

Michel Otanez Shut Down From Throwing
Myles Turner12 hours ago

Questionable Against Minnesota
Kyle Kuzma12 hours ago

Ready To Play Sunday
Pascal Siakam12 hours ago

Won't Play On Monday
Damian Lillard12 hours ago

Good To Go Sunday
Giannis Antetokounmpo12 hours ago

Available Against OKC
Brandon Marsh12 hours ago

Exits Early Sunday
Royce Lewis12 hours ago

Expected To Begin 2025 On Injured List
Miami Dolphins12 hours ago

Ryan Stonehouse Signs With Dolphins
Sam Darnold12 hours ago

Could Opt Out After One Season
Mark Andrews13 hours ago

Unlikely To Be Cut
Igor Shesterkin14 hours ago

Remains In Rangers Crease Sunday
John Gibson14 hours ago

Still Out On Sunday
Nick Bjugstad14 hours ago

Returns For Utah Sunday
Filip Chytil14 hours ago

Questionable For Sunday
Jiri Kulich14 hours ago

In Concussion Protocol
Adam Pelech14 hours ago

Out On Sunday
Zach Hyman15 hours ago

A Game-Time Call Sunday
Bailey Falter15 hours ago

Ready To Go For Monday
Yu Darvish15 hours ago

Dealing With Fatigue
Clarke Schmidt15 hours ago

Won't Start On Monday
Mark Leiter Jr.15 hours ago

Should Be Ready For Opening Day
David Bednar15 hours ago

Not Officially Named Closer
Yoán Moncada15 hours ago

Yoan Moncada Could Land On Injured List
Atlanta Falcons16 hours ago

Keith Taylor Signs With Falcons
Atlanta Falcons16 hours ago

Storm Norton Back With Atlanta
Ronnie Rivers16 hours ago

Re-Ups With Rams
Mason Adams17 hours ago

Diagnosed With Flexor Strain
Joey Gallo17 hours ago

White Sox Release Joey Gallo
Sean Burke17 hours ago

Named Opening Day Starter
Jung Hoo Lee17 hours ago

Expected To Remain Sidelined For A Few Days
Max Kepler18 hours ago

Exits Early On Sunday After Collision
Eiberson Castellano18 hours ago

Could Win Bullpen Job
Kyle Freeland18 hours ago

Rockies Name Kyle Freeland Their Starter For Opening Day
Royce Lewis18 hours ago

Exits Early On Sunday
Ramón Urías18 hours ago

Ramon Urias Expected To Return On Thursday
Emmanuel Rivera18 hours ago

Dealing With Sore Shoulder
New York Jets19 hours ago

Derrick Nnadi Signing With Jets
Washington Commanders19 hours ago

Eddie Goldman Joins Commanders On One-Year Deal
Cooper Rush19 hours ago

Agrees On Two-Year Deal With Ravens
Baltimore Ravens22 hours ago

Ben Cleveland Remaining With Ravens
Seattle Seahawks22 hours ago

Shemar Jean-Charles Signing With Seahawks
Velus Jones Jr.22 hours ago

Signs With Saints
Christopher Bell23 hours ago

Quest For Four Wins In A Row Just Got More Difficult
Kyle Larson23 hours ago

Should Contend For Another Win At Las Vegas
Ryan Blaney23 hours ago

Once Again The Chalk DFS Pick At Las Vegas
Ross Chastain24 hours ago

Fastest In Practice At Las Vegas
Chris Buescher24 hours ago

Has Sneaky Upside This Weekend
Quinton Byfield1 day ago

Scores In Sixth Straight Contest
Chase Elliott1 day ago

May Be A Sneaky DFS Option For Las Vegas Lineups
Artemi Panarin1 day ago

Extends Point Streak To Eight Games
Pyotr Kochetkov1 day ago

Shuts The Door On Flyers On Saturday
William Byron1 day ago

Expect William Byron To Compete For The Win At Las Vegas
Tyler Reddick1 day ago

Is One Of The Top DFS Options For Las Vegas
Anthony Cirelli1 day ago

Strikes Twice On Saturday
Denny Hamlin1 day ago

Could Denny Hamlin Be A Quality Driver For DFS At Las Vegas?
Alex Ovechkin1 day ago

Scores Goal, Adds Assist In Victory
Connor Dewar1 day ago

Scores Twice On Saturday
NASCAR1 day ago

Bubba Wallace Could Be A Solid DFS Option For Las Vegas
Brad Keselowski1 day ago

Qualifies Deep In The Field For Las Vegas
Erik Jones1 day ago

Is Erik Jones Worth Rostering At Las Vegas This Week?
Daniel Suarez1 day ago

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Daniel Suarez At Las Vegas?
Carson Hocevar1 day ago

Showcases Speed And Can Be Worth Rostering At Las Vegas
Ryan Preece1 day ago

Is Ryan Preece A DFS Fade For Las Vegas Lineups?
Joey Logano1 day ago

Likely To Lead At Las Vegas, But Will He Lead Enough For DFS Consideration?
Jordan Mason1 day ago

Vikings Acquire Jordan Mason From 49ers, Sign Him To Two-Year Deal
Dee Eskridge2 days ago

Sticking With Dolphins
JuJu Smith-Schuster2 days ago

Returning To Chiefs
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

Chidobe Awuzie Released By Titans
Parris Campbell2 days ago

Headed To Dallas
Jiri Kulich2 days ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury Saturday
Tyler Myers2 days ago

Set To Return Against Blackhawks
Philadelphia Eagles2 days ago

Patrick Johnson Rejoins Philadelphia
Los Angeles Rams2 days ago

Larrell Murchison Back With The Rams
Roman Dolidze3 days ago

Set For A Rematch
Marvin Vettori3 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Chidi Njokuani3 days ago

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos3 days ago

Looks For His 12th UFC Win
Kurt Holobaugh3 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 104
Alexander Hernandez3 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Cody Gibson3 days ago

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Da'Mon Blackshear3 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 104
Brendson Ribeiro3 days ago

Searching For Second UFC Win On Saturday
Diyar Nurgozhay3 days ago

Set To Make His UFC Debut
MMA3 days ago

Seung Woo Choi In Dire Need Of Victory
Kevin Vallejos3 days ago

Makes Debut At UFC Vegas 104
Jacob Bridgeman5 days ago

Use Caution For Jacob Bridgeman At TPC Sawgrass
Nicolai Hojgaard5 days ago

Looks To Stay Consistent Heading Into PLAYERS Championship
Karl Vilips5 days ago

Makes PLAYERS Championship Debut After First PGA Tour Win
Taylor Pendrith5 days ago

A Sneaky Play At TPC Sawgrass
Sahith Theegala5 days ago

Out Of Form Ahead Of The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick5 days ago

A Shaky Play Heading Into PLAYERS
Scottie Scheffler5 days ago

Eyeing Three-Peat At TPC Sawgrass
Aldrich Potgieter5 days ago

A Risky Play At TPC Sawgrass
Si Woo Kim5 days ago

Looks To Keep Building Momentum At The PLAYERS
Denny McCarthy5 days ago

Looks To Continue Solid Play At TPC Sawgrass
Collin Morikawa5 days ago

Poised For Another Strong Performance At TPC Sawgrass
Robert MacIntyre5 days ago

A Risky Play With Upside At The PLAYERS Championship
Jordan Spieth5 days ago

Looking To Change Fortunes At TPC Sawgrass
Cameron Young5 days ago

Avoid Cameron Young At The PLAYERS Championship
Michael Kim5 days ago

Continues Incredible Form Ahead Of The PLAYERS Championship
Justin Thomas5 days ago

Looking For More Magic At TPC Sawgrass
Xander Schauffele5 days ago

Continues Competitive Return At The Players Championship
Rory McIlroy5 days ago

Looks To Reverse Recent History At TPC Sawgrass
PGA5 days ago

Victor Hovland Looking To Find Form At The PLAYERS Championship
Brian Harman5 days ago

A Sleeper Pick At The PLAYERS Championship
Min Woo Lee6 days ago

A Hard Name To Trust At The Players Championship

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Kaleb Johnson - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

2025 Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: Best, Worst Picks In Rounds 1-4

You don't want to draft the below players, trust me. There are busts in every year's rookie class, and while some of them are tough to predict, others show clear signs that they aren't worth their capital. Many players have great fortune in college, playing on great teams that elevate their production and thus the […]


Matthew Golden - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks, NFL Draft

2025 NFL Draft Wide Receiver Rankings: Top 5 Rookies

Last year’s wide receiver class was one of the best in recent history, totaling three top-10 picks and seven prospects coming off the board in the first round. Many have called this year’s class a massive downgrade compared to last year’s unit. Yet, the 2025 wide receiver draft class has several impressive prospects. There might […]


Brenton Strange - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire, TE Streamers, NFL DFS

Winners and Losers of 2025 NFL Free Agency in Fantasy Football

NFL Free Agency has been quite the frenzy. At RotoBaller, we track it all for you right here! It might not always feel like it, but there have been a ton of impactful moves. And with every move comes a fantasy football impact, right? This article takes a look at some of the top winners […]


Jaylen Wright - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Fantasy Football Breakouts: Running Back Sleepers For 2025

The running back position is in constant flux in Dynasty fantasy football, as depth charts are constantly shuffled around, teams often decide to move on from productive players and replace them with cheaper or younger options, and players have their first good seasons in their careers. We're mostly concerned with that last point -- RBs […]


Albert Haynesworth - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Worst NFL Free Agent Signings Of All Time

With the free agency period for the 2025 NFL season now underway, many big-name players will find new homes as teams compete to sign anyone and everyone they think they need to help their squad. While many signings end up being good moves, or at least help their teams fill holes at certain positions on […]


Cole Kmet - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL injury News

Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets and Avoids: Tight Ends to Buy or Sell (2025)

It's tough to find good tight ends in dynasty fantasy football. Unfortunately, it's also very easy to be stuck with one that sticks around in the doldrums of low production. Such is the case for many TEs, and even those who have good seasons here and there often lack consistency year over year. It's not […]


D'Andre Swift - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injuries

Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets and Avoids: Running Backs to Buy or Sell (2025)

Running back volume and production is highly mercurial in the NFL. It can thus be difficult to know when to trade away and when to trade for tailbacks. There is constant competition for roles in certain backfields, and red-herring situations are abound due to injuries and plain luck. While some RBs are certainly safe in […]


Josh Downs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News Updates

2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Third-Year Breakouts

Patience can be tough, especially in fantasy football. We want instant production from rookies, but these players often take a while to get going. These youngsters need to adjust to the speed of the NFL and learn from their early struggles to break out fully. The third year in the NFL is oftentimes when things […]


Justin Fields - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

NFL Free Agency Winners and Losers - Fantasy Football Outlooks from Florio

Free Agency is the most fun week of the NFL offseason. Even when it is not the strongest class, there is never a shortage of excitement. Players changing teams at a rapid rate. It is a week filled with hope that your favorite team will add stars and that those under-the-radar players you love will […]


Josh Downs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News Updates

Josh Downs Fantasy Football Dynasty Outlook (2025)

The 2025 NFL Draft is quickly approaching. For the last few months, dynasty fantasy football gamers have been meticulously studying the incoming rookie class to gain any edge they can on their league mates. While we should be anxiously awaiting our rookie drafts, we must also take time and analyze how veteran players are valued […]


Tyron Smith Top Landing Spots: 2025 NFL Free Agency Outlook

New York Jets and former long-time Dallas Cowboys offensive tackle Tyron Smith was one of the best offensive linemen in the NFL for an extended period of time. He's made five All-Pro teams, two with the first team and two with the second team, been selected to eight Pro Bowls, and earned a spot on […]


Bills Defense - Von Miller IDP Rankings, D/ST Streamers, Fantasy Football Team Defense

Von Miller Top Landing Spots: 2025 NFL Free Agency Outlook

Buffalo Bills linebacker Von Miller, one of the greatest pass-rushers in NFL history, was released by his team on March 9, 2025. He had signed a six-year, $120 million deal with the team in 2022, but the soon-to-be 36-year-old wasn't able to make it to the end of that contract, so he's now looking for […]


Aaron Jones - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Staying Put - Impact Players Re-signed: Aaron Jones, Zach Ertz, Jaylen Warren, more

NFL free agency is a frenzy. As football fans, we love to see the movement around the league. It allows us to dream about the possibility of our team signing a fresh player who could make a serious impact. However, one cannot overlook the impact of re-signing significant contributors. While it is not as exciting […]