RADIO
Rory ain't Harman the two Toms? Ideally that is how things go tomorrow, as we have a Scottie Scheffler who sits only 3 shots back of Rory McIlroy who has pretty much lead this tournament all week long, with Tom Kim in 2nd while Tommy Fleetwood and Brian Harman sit in T3 . Rory some how has lost more strokes putting than the best golfer in the world who continues to leak putting fluid over the slow Scottish greens, which, in an isolated vacuum chamber is a phrase that an alien would have a tough time understanding.
The general logic for showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. We will also be using my DFS Showdown Model which is available for premium members on the website and in our discord.
You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and at times, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the tournament's Ballers and Crawlers and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
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Round 4 showdown adds the element of finishing position points to the mix. It provides an immense leverage opportunity for those of us brave enough to click on names with a T30 associated with them. There is a five-point difference between second place and 15th place, the points equivalent of one extra birdie in a player's round. If somebody sitting outside the top 20 entering Round 4 has an amazing day, making only one extra birdie than the guys in the top five, they essentially nullify the finishing position advantage. Did we mention that they will also come in at a quarter of the ownership?
Ownership in DFS is king. If you are part of the 2% of the field that has John Huh shooting -9, 98% of the field is missing out on those points. This is where money is made in DFS and if we ignore finishing position points for the most part, there is a decent chance that one of the top points scorers is sitting outside the top 10 entering Round 4. There will be instances where the leaders continue to play well, and that is not ideal, but how many times have we seen a 45% owned overnight leader have his nerves get the better of him and shoot over par? In this scenario, you have a major edge over half the field.
Bozo Brainwash Brigade
If I were to guess the most duplicated lineup tomorrow, this is most likely it. Folks, don't be like the 50+ people that play these 6 guys in the same lineup. How do you expect to profit when you enter a $5 entry to win $1,000 and split it with 50 people to win $20... IF you hit the nutz!? The Chances the leaderboard looks like this tomorrow morning is VERY unlikely! Don't be a part of the Bozo Brainwash Brigade, please.
Round 4 Strategy
The wind is going to be ferocious tomorrow, which adds an exponential amount of variables to the mix. ANYTHING can happen, so let's play the least owned guys who still have in the hopes that in the whacky wind, could have the same chance as scoring as well as those who sit inside the top-5. Consider tomorrow's round like any season of Game of Thrones ... those at the top of the leaderboard have the most to lose. Let's sneak a few ... >>>SPOILER ALERT<<< Bran Starks into our lineups, shall we?
Round 4 Power Rankings
The Power Rankings for Round 4:
These are the golfers I will be looking to slot into my lineups for round 4. The ownership numbers are projected for R4 of $5 PGA SHOWDOWN SINGLE ENTRY which is important to note, as contest size and entry fee impacts the ownership numbers of different golfers across the contests. Click here for a full field power rankings that is part of the DFS Showdown Model on RotoBaller's website.
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$10,000+
Favorite play: Tyrell Hatton had a bit of a disastrous R3, which we can pretty much eliminate from our memory, and with the weather throwing its own climatic tantrum tomorrow, why not go overweight on the Tantrum Tycoon that has some of the best spike putting stats and a R4 scoring average second to Scottie Scheffler, who is $800 more expensive and most likely much more owned sitting in T5.
Other considerations: Scottie Scheffler, Rickie Fowler (we are rotating most of the $10k range through our lineups as you only need roughly 30-40% to get 2X the field at their project ownership and are basically fading Rory, in the hope that his putter continues to let him down and the ball striking gets obliterated in the wind).
$9,000+
Favorite play: Xander Shauffele is the 5th best R4 scorer in the field and sits in a very opportune T18, which is just far enough out of contention that he can have one of those patented X rounds where he goes nuclear, but from far enough back that it usually is not enough to win the tournament. Book it!
Other considerations: Max Homa
$8,000+
Favorite play: Sam Burns smashed a fairway bunker shot into the lip today, costing him a bunch on approach. He also is one of the best R4 players in the filed and we know how good of a putter he can be when it gets rolling. In tomorrow's chaotic conditions, the likelihood that somebody ball strikes this course to death is unlikely, so we are going to target some of the best putters in the field as that can easily be the ladder to luxury in our lineups.
Other considerations: Min Woo (great putter), Brian Harman (great putter), Padraig Harrington (2X Open Champion).
$7,000+
Favorite play: Davis Riley is projecting as one of the better $7k golfers, with the rest of the $7k range not really inspiring much confidence in us or the model. With so many $10K golfers in our pool we are going to lean on a few more $6k guys to round out our stars and studs lineup, it seems.
$6,000+
Favorite play: Nick Taylor is our boo bear! Golly, when he makes the weekend and gets into a groove he seems to take care of business, shooting -5 (4th most points) in R3 priced at $7,100. We don't like to play too much chalk, but at T18 he is not close enough to the leaderboard to catch that position points steam, although he will still be popular despite being horrifically underpriced.
Other considerations: Ben Griffin, Tom Hoge, Ben Martin, Ben Taylor. Hopefully tomorrow when we take down some showdown slates, we can say, "Ben there, done that!" Did not mean to play basically every Ben on the slate, but here we are.
Good luck tomorrow, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!
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