PGA DFS: Horse For The Course - Valspar Championship

Welcome back RotoBallers! After a series of near misses in seemingly every tournament this season, Rory McIlroy finally closed the deal on a Sunday to win The Players Championship. We are seeing a focused and motivated Rory this year and it's really what we've been waiting for from a guy that has all the tools to be a legitimate all-time great. With the win at TPC Sawgrass and his consistent performances in 2019, it's pretty fair to consider Rory the current favorite for The Masters, which is now less than a month away.

A personal note on The Players...YUCK! I knew that the tournament had historically been an unpredictable event, but man...things were ugly for me last week! I'm pretty sure I was drawing dead by Thursday evening and that's never a good feeling. Unfortunately, bad weeks are a part of DFS. The great thing is that we get a chance to bounce back this week with a really good event in the Valspar Championship.

Defending champ Paul Casey (an unmitigated disaster at TPC Sawgrass) leads a surprisingly strong field this week. He's joined by the likes of Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, and Jason Day. I say surprisingly strong, because usually a lot of the top guys aren't too eager to tackle the tough Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort, but we have seen this tournament gain some steam over the last couple of years and draw the sort of fields that this type of quality golf course deserves. The cream of the crop certainly rose to the top of the leaderboard in last year's Valspar, with Casey, Tiger Woods, Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia, and Justin Rose making up the top-five finishers...but this is also an event where we saw Kevin Streelman and John Senden win in 2013 and 2014. With this deep field, I expect golf's elite to rise to the challenge again this year.

I try to make HFTC more than just a "picks" column (though you can certainly use it that way if you are in a hurry) by digging deep into each highlighted player. Obviously, our weekly jumping off point is a player's course history, but there isn't a firm set of rules when it comes to who is featured in this article. My goal is to help you succeed as a PGA DFS player. Period. I will touch on different GPP and cash-game strategies throughout the column each week and hopefully have some useful info for both beginners and experienced DFS players. Thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller, let's tee it up!

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

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The Course: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)

Par 71 - 7,340 Yards, Greens: Bermuda

Located in Palm Harbor, Florida, the Copperhead course at Innisbrook Resort is the type of course that could hold a PGA Championship next week and no one would raise an eyebrow. It is a quality golf course and one that routinely ranks as one of the most difficult on the PGA Tour schedule. It's many undulations are unique for a Florida course. Players in this field will face tree-lined fairways, tough doglegs, and greens that are hard to hit. They must also tackle 'The Snake Pit'...the Copperhead's daunting closing three-hole stretch. This is a less-than-driver course for the bombers, but there are four Par-5's for them to gun at. Interestingly, there are FIVE Par-3's on this layout, which almost forces us to look at something we rarely give much weight to in this article; Par-3 Scoring. As usual, ball striking is a trait we want to target. A players' short game and ability to scramble will also be tested this week.

The Horse

Patrick Reed (DK - $9,500 & FD - $10,800)

Notable Course History: T2 (2018), T38 ('17), T7 ('16), T2 ('15)
Recent Form: T47 (The Players), T50 (API), T22 (AT&T), T13 (Farmers), T13 (Sony)

Patrick Reed is not a guy you will see featured in this article very often. The reason being, he's just not a statistically strong player, so I'm never really able to point at a group of statistics and say: "Here's why you should play Patrick Reed this week."

Unfortunately, this week is no different from a stat perspective, as there's really not many measurables that Reed pops in. What I do like is Reed's history at Copperhead. He was a 72nd-hole error away from, at the least, being in a playoff at last year's Valspar. It was just the latest in a string of strong Valspar performances for the 2018 Masters champ. Last year was Reed's second runner-up finish at Copperhead since 2015 and he logged a T7 here in 2016. This track demands more than a little toughness over 72 holes and the man who made his bones on the PGA Tour by playing Monday qualifiers always seems to answer the bell at Innisbrook.

Going into the research process for this week, I honestly thought that Reed was having a bad year. I was surprised to find that he's logged three top-15's and two top-25's over his seven 2019 starts. Not a bad down year. That Reed has been quietly solid shouldn't be surprising, as he's a guy that just seems to find a way to get the ball in the hole without blowing you away with his talent. Reed is helped by a strong short game that gets him out of a lot of jams. He ranks third in the Valspar field in Strokes Gained: Short Game and fourth in SG: Putting over his last 24 rounds.

Reed was actually having a nice Players outing after opening with three straight 69's, but a disastrous final-round 78 sent him tumbling down the leaderboard. He was 28th in The Players field in SG: Tee to Green, but uncharacteristically lost almost 3.5 strokes putting. I look for Reed to get things straightened out on the greens quickly and once again be in contention at the Valspar. Reed's DK price is pretty spot-on and rostering him will probably put you on the road to a more 'balanced build' this week.

The Ponies

Dustin Johnson (DK - $,000 & FD - $12,600)

Notable Course History: None
Recent Form: T5 (The Players), Win (WGC-Mexico), T9 (Genesis), T45 (AT&T), T4 (Sentry)

We go from a guy in Patrick Reed that grades out horribly statistically, to perhaps the most statistically impressive player on the PGA Tour in Dustin Johnson. So let it be known that we are an equal opportunity golf article here at HFTC!

What we normally target in this article is strong course history, something that DJ has none of at Innisbrook. It's slightly unusual for me to include a player here without a proven course track record, but Johnson is a pretty big exception to that rule. Along with Rory McIlroy, DJ has been running roughshod over the competition this year. He has a win, two top-five's, and a top-10 in just five 2019 PGA Tour starts, as well as a win at the Saudi International on the Euro Tour. He's in what I like to call 'DJ-God Mode', the type of form in which he has a legitimate chance to win every time he tees it up. We've seen him go on huge winning binges before and here we are again.

I won't bore you with many of Johnson's unbelievable stats, so let's just say they are dominant. Over a long-term measurement sample (50 rounds) he ranks first in this field in an unreal FIVE Strokes Gained categories: Total, T2G, Ball Striking, Off the Tee, and Approach! One sneaky stat I will throw at you is that DJ stands third in this field in SG: Par 3's over his last 50 rounds, a rather surprising stat from a player that we often think of as the ultimate bomber.

Listen, I know you don't need me to tell you to play Dustin Johnson, but his current form is something so special that I felt he was worthy of a mention this week. He plays difficult courses perhaps better than anyone in the world and has a game that's peaking right now. Unsurprisingly, DJ sits atop the salary scale on both DK and FD. In a week where things get pretty thin, pretty quickly as we move down the salary scale, rostering him will require some sacrifices. If you do build around DJ, you are expecting him to win this tournament.

Jim Furyk (DK - $9,200 & FD - $10,000)

Notable Course History: 7th ('18), T41 ('17), T40 ('15), T20 ('14)
Recent Form: 2nd (The Players), T9 (Honda), T37 (Genesis), T14 (AT&T)

Let's take a second to talk about Jim Furyk. Fresh off an impressive display of 'old-man strength' at The Players, the 48-year-old heads to another course that fits his grind-it-out style of play. Furyk's runner-up finish at TPC Sawgrass probably came as a huge shock to many, but he has been on my radar for several weeks and was a player we successfully highlighted in the Honda Classic edition of this article.

I'm willing to go right back to Furyk this week, because he does profile as such a good fit at the Copperhead Course. He's played well here in the past and logged a T7 in last season's Valspar. Furyk's stats are about what you would expect...he's rock-solid in SG: Short Game & Putting, as well as ranking third in the field in both SG: Total and Bogey Avoidance over his last 24 rounds.

There are a couple of different outlooks we can take on Furyk's run at TPC Sawgrass...will he carry the positive momentum from his strong Players outing to Innisbrook or will he suffer an emotional letdown from the near miss? I think the veteran has been around the block enough times to not get too high or low after very good or very bad performances. After receiving huge price bumps on both sites, many will be reluctant to pay the freight on Furyk this week, but he's a player that I will get into my Valspar lineups.

Ryan Moore (DK - $8,700 & FD - $8,900)

Notable Course History: M/C ('18), T18 ('17), 3rd ('16), 5th ('15)
Recent Form: T20 (The Players) T33 (Arnold Palmer), T28 (Genesis), M/C (WMPO), M/C (Farmers)

Ryan Moore is like a younger version of Zach Johnson in that he constantly pops up during my weekly course history research. The guy has quietly had a very solid career. He finds his way into this week's article because he has a very strong Valspar resume. Moore recorded consecutive top-five's on the Copperhead Course in 2015-16 and logged a T18 in '17.

The reason he isn't highlighted here more often despite having strong history at several courses, is his frustrating inconsistency over the last couple of years. Moore has been through numerous equipment changes over the years, and while I don't like blaming equipment for a player's results, I honestly feel like it's hurt his career. He seems to be settled in with PXG now and we've seen some signs of consistency over the past month. He's ran off three straight solid outings at the Genesis, API, and The Players...and has gained strokes both T2G and on Approach in all three of those starts. He also ranks fifth in the Valspar field in SG: Around the Green over his last 12 rounds, which is a handy skill to have at a tough course like Copperhead.

Ryan Moore is never going to be an 'all-in' type of play for me, as he's just too inconsistent, but his course history and improving form have me intrigued this week. We focus mainly on DK in this column, but Moore is an unbelievable value on FD this week, so those of you that play over there should give him a long look. His DK price puts him in the same range as several guys that will be popular, which should make him a nice contrarian-ish GPP option.

Jason Kokrak (DK - $8,600 & FD - $9,700 )

Notable Course History: T8 ('18), T58 ('17), M/C ('16), T7 ('15), T14 ('14)
Recent Form: T47 (The Players), T10 (API), T9 (Honda), T37 (Genesis), T20 (WMPO)

I've been beating the Jason Kokrak drum for the entirety of 2019 and I'm not slowing down this week at a course where he's logged two top-10's since 2015. He's fresh off a T47 at The Players, which doesn't seem very impressive, unless you mention the fact that he lost nearly two strokes to the field on the greens. It's a recurring theme with Kokrak, who logged a T10 at the API despite losing a MASSIVE 4.1 strokes putting!

Why am I so quick to jump on such a bad putter? Because as I've preached in this article for almost a year, putting can come and go in the blink of an eye on the PGA Tour. If a guy is hitting the ball consistently well, a decent putting week can always come along. Kokrak is striking the ball at a very elite level this season. I'm talking 'DJ-like' stats. Over his last 24 rounds, Kokrak trails only Dustin Johnson in this field in Strokes Gained: T2G and Ball Striking; and he trails only Keegan Bradley in Strokes Gained: Approach over that same time frame. So, yeah...my man Kokrak has been inviting folks to 'The Stripe Show' all year long.

After being an extremely popular DFS option at the Honda Classic, Kokrak's DK ownership dwindled to around 10% for both the API and The Players. I imagine that reduction was due to the depth of those fields and I look for his ownership to trend back up again this week. I'm fine with eating a little chalk if need be, and I'm playing Kokrak in all formats.

Sung Kang (DK - $7,200 & FD - $7,900 )

Notable Course History: 73rd ('18), M/C ('17), T22 ('16)
Recent Form: T47 (The Players), T6 (API), T51 (Honda), T64 (Genesis), T14 (AT&T)

While there is a lot of strength at the top of the Valspar field, things get pretty ugly when we start searching for DFS value this week. Sung Kang is a player that I've leaned on several times this year when trying to save salary and I'm leaning in his direction again for the Valspar. Obviously a player at this price isn't going to be a model of consistency, but Kang has only missed one cut in eight 2019 starts and has popped off for a couple of top-10 finishes at the API and the Sony Open.

Kang isn't the type of player that blows you away in one statistical area, but he's competent across the board. He's 25th in SG: Total and 26th in SG: T2G in this Valspar field over his last 24 rounds. He's also very efficient on Par-3's, of which the players will face five of this week, and grades out 10th in the field in SG: Par 3's over his last 24 rounds. Kang is also good at getting himself out of trouble and stands 14th in the field in Bogeys Avoided.

The South Korean is an especially great value on FD at just $7.9k, but his $7.2k price on DK also presents some salary relief. He's by no means a 'slam dunk', but there aren't many discount plays to feel great about this week. He's a GPP play for me and I'll mix and match him with some of the other usual suspects in this price range like Joaquin Niemann, Trey Mullinax, and maybe even someone like Danny Willett in the sub-$7k range. I usually try to keep my player pool as tight as possible, but because there's nothing I really love down here this week, I'll be tossing several different cheap players in my MME lineups.

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