PGA DFS Hole By Hole Breakdown: Valspar Championship (2023)

Welcome to the latest edition of the PGA DFS Hole-By-Hole Breakdown, where Josh Bennett (@JishSwish) breaks down the course the PGA Tour is playing each week. We think this course breakdown is an important slice of the "PGA DFS pie" and will help change the way you do your research for every tournament. A good understanding of the course that's being played is extremely important before diving into individual players. Each week, this article will give you everything you need to know about the course, strategies players could take, and statistics that fit the specifics of the layout.

This week's Breakdown features Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club (Copperhead Course) for the PGA Tour's Valspar Championship. They'll need to bring their fairway finders and sand shovels this week with all the narrow tee shots and strategic bunkering. Scoring will be difficult, so the good bogey avoiders should find themselves at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club (Copperhead Course): Par 71, 7340 Yards

Hole 1: Par 5, 560 Yards

Off the Tee: The first tee will show a theme that we will see all the way through to the 18th hole. Narrow fairway and bad misses will end up in impossible places to get par from. Accuracy off the tee will be "less important" on this hole because it's a par 5, but it will still be difficult to par if they miss into the bunkers on the left.

Approach: If they have a good tee shot, they may have the opportunity to get to the green if they choose. Considering the bunker in the front of the green and the trees that may be in the way, most of the field will probably just lay up to a comfortable wedge and play for birdie there. Scoring should be lower on this hole compared to most of the rest of the course. Green Size: 30x20 yards

Advantage: Driving Accuracy, SG: Approach, Scrambling, Par 5 Scoring

Hole 2: Par 4, 435 Yards

Off The Tee: They have to avoid the water on this tee shot, so trees are very much in play on the left. This hole is shorter than a lot of others on the course, so we will likely see a lot of players lay up to the larger part of the fairway and play a mid-iron in from there.

Approach: Likely a mid-iron approach to a good-sized green with just one bunker protecting the front. As long as the ball stays out of the water, they should have a good shot to score on this hole. Green Size: 30x20 yards

Advantage: SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring

Hole 3: Par 4, 455 Yards

Off the Tee: They have to avoid the water again on this tee shot, so trees on the left can come into play. It is possible we see some lay up off the tee, the approach will be close to the same distance because the hole takes a 90 degree turn at the end of the fairway that nobody can reach.

Approach: No matter the choice off the tee, it will be a mid-iron or possibly a little longer if they miss left to the green. The front is narrow and pretty much all sides are protected by large bunkers. There will be plenty of misses into these bunkers. Anything onto the green for a safe par is plenty good on this hole. Green Size: 20x30 yards

Advantage: SG: Approach, GIR, Scrambling, Sand Saves, Bogey Avoidance

Hole 4: Par 3, 195 Yards

Approach: Not the longest par 3 on the course, but it is plenty long. The only side not protected by a bunker is the right side. Like the last hole, there will be misses into these bunkers. The green is not deep, so distance control will be very important. A par is a great score here. Green Size: 35x15 Yards

Advantage: GIR, Scrambling, Sand Saves, Bogey Avoidance

Hole 5: Par 5, 605 Yards

Off the Tee: One of the few tee shots where length will have a significant advantage. If they can carry it 300 yards, they take all bunkers out of play and will have a good chance to reach the green. The tee shot still has to be accurate though. The rest will have a very narrow landing area, and some may even consider laying up behind the right bunker knowing it's going to be a three shot hole anyway.

Approach: For most, this approach will be a wedge after a lay up from the tee shot, considering the length of the hole and the narrow area for tee shots off the tee. The green is protected by some bunkers but they won't be an issue for those hitting wedges into the green. This should be a scoring hole for the field as long as they avoid penalties in the trees. Green Size: 15x25 Yards

Advantage: Driving Distance, Total Driving, Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, Par 5 Scoring

Hole 6: Par 4, 465 Yards

Off the Tee: A narrow tee shot here with no real lay up potential because of the length of the hole. Accuracy is the focus here, the ball has to be kept between the tree lines.

Approach: A mid-iron approach to a good-sized green with only one bunker off the front-left of the green to protect it. The approach won't be from a short distance, but getting it onto the green shouldn't be much of a problem. There will be some scoring on this hole, but par is plenty good too. Green Size: 25x20 Yards

Advantage: Driving Accuracy, Ball-Striking, Scrambling, Par 4 Scoring

Hole 7: Par 4, 420 Yards

Off The Tee: Another tee shot requiring accuracy, but this one has potential for a lay up if they want. As long as they keep it between the trees, it should be a wedge or short-iron left to the hole.

Approach: The green is large and is protected by large bunkers everywhere except long. With wedges or short-irons, they really shouldn't be a problem though. This will be a scoring hole for those that can keep the ball between the tree lines. Green Size: 25x30 Yards

Advantage: Driving Accuracy, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring

Hole 8: Par 3, 235 Yards

Approach: A very long par 3 with not much room to miss left-to-right. Bunkers protect the front-left and front-right, so many will likely error a little long to stay out of them. That could mean some long putts coming back to front pin locations, so both short game and putting will be important here. Green Size: 15x40 Yards

Advantage: GIR, Scrambling, 3 Putt Avoidance, Bogey Avoidance

Hole 9: Par 4, 430 Yards

Off the Tee: Average length hitters or better have the upper-hand on this hole by being able to eliminate bunker problems. There are some trees that will be in the way on both sides if it gets off-line too much, but as long as they aren't right behind the trees they still should be able to get to the green with a wedge. Shorter hitters will have to be accuracy to fit it between the bunkers.

Approach: A wedge or short-iron for the field to this large green protected by bunkers on all sides except the back. There looks to be a back-stop as well that might be used from some shorter hitters having to hit longer approaches from the bunker. However, as long as trouble is avoided off the tee, a wedge into this green should leave a scoring chance for most. Green Size: 35x20 Yards

Advantage: Driving Distance, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring

Hole 10: Par 4, 445 Yards

Off the Tee: The back half starts off easier than the front half. Most of the field should be able to carry the bunker on the left, and then they just have to avoid a big miss to keep it between the trees. This hole and the last hole are the only holes really with *some* relief off the tee, so they should take advantage of it while they have it.

Approach: A short-iron for the field to another large green, this one with bunkers on the left and right sides. The bunkers should be avoidable with short irons, and they should have good scoring chances as long as the tee shot isn't too off-line. Green Size: 20x30 Yards

Advantage: Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring

Hole 11: Par 5, 575 Yards

Off the Tee: This hole (especially the tee shot) is very similar to the first hole. The tee shot needs to be straight to have any chance at the green. Some shorter hitters may not even have a chance at the green anyway because of the hole length. Luckily, it's a par 5 so there will be an opportunity to lay up to a wedge no matter where the tee shot ends up.

Approach: For most of the field, just like prior par 5's, the approach will be in the form of a wedge after a lay up. There is not a lot of room to give the green a shot since the fairway is cut off by rough and a large bunker. With wedges, the bunkers will be out of play and they should have a good chance to score on this hole. Green Size: 15x25 Yards

Advantage: Driving Accuracy, Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, Scrambling, Par 5 Scoring

Hole 12: Par 4, 380 Yards

Off the Tee: They finally get a hole under 400 yards, but they don't even get to take advantage of it. The water is 255 yards down the fairway, so the entire field will have to keep driver in the bag. They'll hit something out to the fairway short of the water and play from there.

Approach: The approach will be with a wedge for most of the field to a green protected on all sides except the right side. This should be a scoring hole for the whole field with wedge in hand. Green Size: 30x15 Yards

Advantage: SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring

Hole 13: Par 3, 200 Yards

Approach: From one of the easiest holes they'll play to one of the hardest. The long tee shot has to carry all of the water and then stay on a green that has hardly any depth. Pins on the right will bring the bunkers into play, and if they error left on those holes it then becomes a long putt contest. Par is a great score on this hole. Green Size: 40x15 Yards

Advantage: GIR, Scrambling, 3 Putt Avoidance, Bogey Avoidance

Hole 14: Par 5, 590 Yards

Off The Tee: Although still not "easy" by any means, this is the easiest of the par 5 tee shots. Trees are spread out a little more and they are no bunkers to worry about. The hole is long just like the others, so getting to the green in two will be a challenge, but at least there is some relief off the tee.

Approach: Just like the prior par 5's, most approaches will be with wedges. The green is protected by a large bunker on the left and a smaller on on the right, but they shouldn't be in play with wedges. As long as they get positioned correctly from their second shot, this will be a scoring hole for the field. Green Size: 15x30 Yards

Advantage: Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, Par 5 Scoring

Hole 15: Par 3, 215 Yards

Approach: Another long par 3, but this one is less difficult, mostly because of the size of the green. Large bunkers protect the front-right and back-left and they'll likely only be in play with pins positioned near them. Anything onto the green will leave a good chance to take par, which will be plenty good on this hole. Green Size: 20x30 Yards

Advantage: GIR, Bogey Avoidance

Hole 16: Par 4, 475 Yards

Off The Tee: They have to avoid the water on the right side here, which just like other holes on the course will bring trees on the left into play. Accuracy off this tee is important and a lay up is not likely because of the length of the hole.

Approach: A mid-iron approach to a decent-sized green that is only really protected by the bunker on the right side. Avoid the water and get the ball on the green for a stress-free par is exactly what they need starting the final stretch of holes. Green Size: 20x35 Yards

Advantage: Driving Accuracy, GIR, Bogey Avoidance

Hole 17: Par 3, 215 Yards

Approach: No surprise here, another long par 3. This one is to another large green, but the hole is much more difficult with pins in the front of the green where it gets narrow and protected by bunkers. On those days, misses will be long and avoiding 3 putts will be the key. Just like the other par 3's, par is a great score on this hole. Green Size: 15x40 Yards

Advantage: GIR, Scrambling, Sand Saves, 3 Putt Avoidance

Hole 18: Par 4, 445 Yards

Off the Tee: The final tee shot is just like most others on the course. The ball has to go straight or it's in trouble. The only difference here is that the trouble is with bunkers, not with trees. If they want to score, they need to keep it out of the bunkers. If they end up in one of them, they're likely playing for par.

Approach: The green is large on the final hole, but most of it is surrounded by bunkers. An approach from the fairway should leave good scoring chances. Approaches from the bunkers will be playing for par. Scoring should be good on this hole as there won't be many large scores, but they need to make sure they get par at worst. Green Size: 25x35 Yards

Advantage: Driving Accuracy, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring

Conclusions

Accuracy off the tee is the theme on this course. There are only a couple holes where they can miss off line and still be OK, the rest of them they are scrambling for par with bogey very likely if they miss.

The tee shots are hard, the approaches are not all short, and the greens are well protected by bunkers, which means there are plenty of opportunities on every hole for even an average shot to end up in a bad spot. Therefore, good Scramblers that can keep the big numbers off the card will be successful this week.

As long as they can keep it between the trees, Approach play, especially with mid or longer irons will be important. There are not a ton of wedge holes on the course, and all the par 3's are long. Good play from longer distances will help keep bogeys off the sorecard.

Other stats to consider: Par 4 Scoring, GIR, Bogey Avoidance, Sand Saves, Ball-Striking, 3 Putt Avoidance, Par 5 Scoring

Assumptions

Images and measurements were done on Google Earth. These satellite images can sometimes be up to five or more years old and not show very recent changes to courses if there were any.

Carry distance is used for off-the-tee distances shown in the images. The average carry distance on tour in 2021 was 281 yards, so that is what is used here.

I used a total dispersion off-the-tee of 60 yards. This comes from an article that Jon Sherman wrote for Practical Golf (@practicalgolf) discussing average dispersion, and I took 5-10 yards off from that number.

I assumed a 10-15 yard roll out from the carry distance to start the measurement to the green. Measurements to the green were rounded to the nearest five yards and measured from the center of the fairway to the center of the green.

Green measurements were also measured to the nearest five yards.

Things like weather, rough length, elevation, etc. are not taken into consideration on the measurements. I can only see and assume so much from satellite images. However, I do note where possible on each hole if things like elevation and wind could impact how the hole plays.

Scorecard:

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