PGA DFS Hole By Hole Breakdown: Arnold Palmer Invitational (2023)

Welcome to the latest edition of the PGA DFS Hole-By-Hole Breakdown, where Josh Bennett (@JishSwish) breaks down the course the PGA Tour is playing each week. We think this course breakdown is an important slice of the "PGA DFS pie" and will help change the way you do your research for every tournament. A good understanding of the course that's being played is extremely important before diving into individual players. Each week, this article will give you everything you need to know about the course, strategies players could take, and statistics that fit the specifics of the layout.

This week's Breakdown features Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational on the PGA Tour. They need to keep it out of the water and score on all the par 5's to be successful this week, this will be one of the hardest courses they play all year. Take advantage of the few scoring holes and keep bogey off the card, they'll find themselves at the top of the leaderboard. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

Bay Hill Club and Lodge: Par 72, 7466 Yards

Hole 1: Par 4, 461 Yards

Off the Tee: The first tee shot will require some decision making. The hole is wide enough to hit driver, but fairway bunkers are in play for almost the whole field if they can't draw it around the corner away from them. Some of the field will have to hit less than driver and lay up just short of those bunkers to be safe. Bombers will have an advantage here as they'll be able to hit it far enough to carry the sand traps and trees and take almost all trouble out of play.

Approach:  A mid or short-iron approach to the first green that has deep bunkers surrounding it. Good iron play is key to start the day because there is no place to miss. Ending up in one of those deep bunkers will make bogey much more likely than par. Green Size: 35x20 yards

Advantage: Driving Distance, Ball-Striking, SG: Approach

Hole 2: Par 3, 231 Yards

Approach:  This is the first of a handful of holes at Bay Hill that play as one of the hardest holes on Tour. The difficulty here is because of the length and green size. Long-irons, hybrids and possibly fairway woods will be hit off this tee, and there is only a small window to keep it on the putting surface because of the green angle. They should be happy with a green-in-regulation and two-putt on this hole. Green Size: 30x15 yards

Advantage: GIR, Scrambling

Hole 3: Par 4, 434 Yards

Off the Tee: Water comes into play starting on hole three. On this particular hole, it will be in play on both the tee shot and the approach. Targets have to be chosen to avoid the water, so many will end up missing this fairway toward the trees. Bombers should be able to cut the corner and take it over the edge of the water and have a safe drive with a very short approach left.

Approach:  Short irons and wedges to a narrow green, which will bring the water into play on pins placed on the left side of the green. There are bunkers short, long, and right as well, but the primary defense is the water. As long as they keep it out of the water on both the tee shot and approach, this is the first decent chance at birdie. Green Size: 15x30 yards

Advantage: Driving Distance, Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring

Hole 4: Par 5, 590 Yards

Off the Tee: The par-fives are the scoring holes at Bay Hill. The rest of the course is long and difficult, so it's important to get scoring done on these holes when given a chance. The tee shot on this one is wide open, so they'll all take big swings at this one and see how far down the fairway they can get it. Bombers may have a little more trouble with bunkers on the left, but even if they're found, the layup is not difficult at all.

Approach: On most par-fives on tour, the greens are smaller or very well protected to make the shot to the green in two more difficult. This one, however, has a large green to hit at and only has a couple of very small bunkers protecting it, making it get-able. Assuming a drive is hit long enough to be able to reach this green, everyone should be going for it. Green Size: 30x25 Yards

Advantage: Driving Distance, Ball-Striking, Par 5 Scoring

Hole 5: Par 4, 390 Yards

Off the Tee: There are a couple of different options off this tee, but because of it's length, we will see almost all of the field laying up short of the large bunker on the left (about 250-yard tee shot). It's possible for the bombers to get it over the bunker, but the landing area gets small and could leave a short approach that has to be carried over a green-side bunker, so even they will likely decide to play it safe.

Approach: From just short of the bunker, it's a 135-yard approach to the green that will be a wedge for most of the field. The green is large enough that it should be easy to hit, and the bunkers on the front, left, and back shouldn't be in play. This is a rare occasion for a birdie on a par 4. Green Size: 30x20 Yards

Advantage: SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring

Hole 6: Par 5, 555 Yards

Off the Tee: Water is back in play on this par-five, and picking the correct target to make sure it stays out of play is key. The fairway is large, so as long as they aim correctly, they will find themselves in this fairway with a good look at the green. Fun fact: to carry the tee shot directly to the green here is about 350 yards, Bryson gave it his best shot and succeeded a little to the right of the green in the 2021 event.

Approach: The green will be reachable for the whole field. Longer hitters will even knock this down to approaches with mid-irons. The green is 50 yards long, and it's narrow, so distance control and accuracy will be key. The bailout is right on this approach to avoid the water, and there are bunkers over there to catch a bunch of shots that do end up bailing that way. We'll also see a lot of three-putts from very long distances on this hole. Green Size: 20x50 Yards

Advantage: Driving Distance, Ball-Striking, SG: Around the Green, 3 Putt Avoidance, Par 5 Scoring

Hole 7: Par 3, 199 Yards

Approach: The par-threes aren't easy or short, but this is the easiest of the four. It's "easy" because the green is so large. All that should mean, however, is we'll see a lot of greens hit near the middle and then two-putt pars. Bunkers cover all sides of the green, so there's no place to miss. Par-threes are not where they'll be expecting to score, so we'll see safe shots to the middle of the green often. Green Size: 25x30 Yards

Advantage: GIR, 3 Putt Avoidance

Hole 8: Par 4, 460 Yards

Off the Tee: On one of the most challenging holes on tour, the difficult part of this hole is not the tee shot. The fairway is very wide, and the only real trouble is trees if they miss too far right. Bombers may bring the fairway bunker into play, which will definitely be an issue having to carry water from a bunker. Otherwise, there are not too many problems to be found off the tee.

Approach: The approach is what makes this hole hard. The carry to the green will be with a mid-iron, and it will have to carry at least part of the water no matter where the approach comes from. The green is wide, but it's not deep, so distance control from that far away is important. Not only do golfers have to carry the water, but they have to keep it from going too far and landing in one of the bunkers protecting the back of the green. This is another hole that has no bailout areas, so they need to hit it on the green to have a good chance at protecting par. Green Size: 40x20 Yards

Advantage: SG: Approach, GIR, Scrambling

Hole 9: Par 4, 480 Yards

Off the Tee: Another one of the most difficult holes on tour, this one presents problems on both the tee shot and the approach. The landing area off the tee is small because of trees on both sides and made smaller by a large fairway bunker. Worse yet, very bad misses will end up OB on practice areas on both sides. Bogey is almost certain if the fairway is missed because of the length of this hole and what's in the way when they do miss. This tee shot needs to be straight to have a chance at par.

Approach: A long approach with long irons to a nice-sized green, but it's protected on all sides by large bunkers. Like other holes before it, there are no good bailout areas, so just getting it onto the green is good enough. Take the two-putt par and move on. Green Size: 25x35 Yards

Advantage: Driving Accuracy, Ball-Striking, GIR, Scrambling

Hole 10: Par 4, 400 Yards

Off the Tee: Similar to the start of the front nine, it's decision time off the tee to start the back. This hole can be cut down significantly by going straight over the fairway bunker on the right, but a miss too far right can be OB or stuck behind trees. The safe play is to lay up to the largest part of the fairway and just short of the far-left bunkers, which is about a 235-yard tee shot.

Approach: Those that take this hole on with driver and keep it in play will be rewarded with a short approach under 100 yards. The rest who decide to lay up will have a short iron to the green. Either way, this green is large and is only protected by bunkers in the front, which shouldn't be in play unless on severe miss-hits. This is another rare opportunity for a birdie on a par 4. Green Size: 25x25 Yards

Advantage: Driving Distance, Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring

Hole 11: Par 4, 438 Yards

Off the Tee: On the surface, it looks like it's the tee shot that makes this hole one of the hardest holes on tour. However, as seen in the image, in order to take the water completely out of play off the tee, they have to take targets almost completely off the right side of the fairway, which brings both bunkers into play. Since the landing area is so small and dangerous, we'll see many players elect to lay up off this tee. So, this hole now goes from a short and easy approach from normal distances with driver to a long approach that has to carry water almost the whole way.

Approach: This approach will come from around 185 yards after a layup off the tee and will have to carry water for the entire duration of the ball flight. The green is narrow and long, and its primary defense is the water. It also has bunkers on the right side and the front, which eliminates potential bail-out areas. The theme of these holes seems to be pretty obvious by now; large greens protected on all sides, forcing an accurate approach because there is no safe place to miss. Green Size: 20x40 Yards

Advantage: GIR, Scrambling

Hole 12: Par 5, 574 Yards

Off the Tee: Not much stress with this tee shot. There are fairway bunkers that make the fairway narrow, but this hole is a scoring hole whether they take on the green in two or not. Hit it as far as possible and either go for the green or lay up with what's left.

Approach: Some longer hitters will go for this green in two, the rest will lay up to around 100 yards. The green is large, and although bunkers are on all sides, they aren't really in play except for those who go for the green in two. Good wedges and short games will be on display on this hole, and tons of birdies should be made. Green Size: 25x35 Yards

Advantage: Driving Distance, Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, SG: Around the Green, Par 5 Scoring

Hole 13: Par 4, 382 Yards

Off the Tee: Another tee shot here that the landing area is made small by fairway bunkers. The hole is short, so like others before it, most of the field will elect to lay up off the tee to just short of the right bunker (about 250-yard tee shot). The hole is so short that it still leaves a wedge into the green.

Approach: This is a wedge contest to another large green that's protected all along the front by water and two bunkers in the back. Unlike other holes, this approach is short, so the trouble isn't as much in play as it is when the approaches are coming from long distances. This should be a birdie hole for the field. Green Size: 40x20 Yards

Advantage: SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring

Hole 14: Par 3, 215 Yards

Approach: The third of the long par-threes, this one allows for a safe miss short-right of the green. Bunkers protect the rest of the green, as they do on every other hole. Approach to this hole should be the same as the other par-threes, just get it on the green and two-putt for par. Green Size: 25x30 Yards

Advantage: GIR, Scrambling

Hole 15: Par 4, 467 Yards

Off the Tee: Accuracy off the tee is important on this hole. The large fairway bunker narrows the landing area on its own, but trees on both the left and right sides narrow it even further. If they aren't in the fairway here, something will be impeding their view to the green, and then they are playing for bogey.

Approach: This is one of the few greens on the course that has a long approach and allows for a miss that isn't in a bunker. A mid-iron approach will error long and right since bunkers protect the rest of the green. The green is large, though, so a bailout may not be necessary, and emphasis instead would be put on putting from long distances and avoiding three-putts. Green Size: 20x30 Yards

Advantage: Driving Accuracy, SG: Approach, GIR, 3 Putt Avoidance

Hole 16: Par 5, 511 Yards

Off the Tee: There is tons of room off this tee, so they should be able to take the right fairway bunker out of play and aim a little left down the fairway. This is a short par-five, so even shots that go left and are a bit further away can still easily be hit at the green. In addition, just like the other par-fives on this course, a layup isn't the worst thing to happen because it will leave a very easy approach shot into the green. Some may even prefer this route because a shot at the green from the tee shot has to carry water.

Approach: Nothing more than a long-iron approach to the green in two, otherwise a short wedge shot under 100 yards. Water runs along the front of the green, and there are small bunkers on each of the other sides of the green. Staying out of the water is the key on this hole, as long as that's accomplished, a birdie can be had no matter what the approach to the green was. It's important to get a birdie on this hole headed into the difficult final two holes of the round. Green Size: 20x35 Yards

Advantage: Ball-Striking, GIR, SG: Around the Green, Par 5 Scoring

Hole 17: Par 3, 221 Yards

Approach: The final long par-three on the course has to carry water and then a beach bunker to get to the green. Once again, there's not much room to miss, so hitting the green is important. Once on this long green, they'll have to avoid three-putting, as a lot of putts will come from long distances. Green Size: 40x15 Yards

Advantage: GIR, Three Putt Avoidance, Scrambling

Hole 18: Par 4, 458 Yards

Off the Tee: The final tee shot is simple. Load up driver and hit it as far as possible. The water isn't reachable, the fairway is wide, and there's no trouble on either side. Bomb it and get set up for the approach.

Approach: A mid-iron approach that will carry water almost the whole way to the green. The green is shaped with the water, so the entire front of the green is protected by the water. Bunkers guard the back of the green, so distance control is important. Finding the bunkers in the back could easily bring the water back into play on a miss-hit out of the bunker. Walking away with par on the final hole will be a successful finish. Green Size: 45x15 Yards

Advantage: Driving Distance, GIR, Scrambling

Conclusions

The four par-fives are the easiest holes on the course, and scoring on the majority of them each day will be important. The par-threes are long and won't be scored on much, plus, the rest of the course is long with difficult approaches on the par-fours, so there won't be a lot of scoring there either. Bogey avoidance and par-five scoring will be the difference makers this weekend.

The greens at Bay Hill are large, but almost all holes are protected on all sides by water or bunkers, so avoiding those and just hitting Greens in Regulation is a great way to keep bad scores off the scorecards.

Since there are so many spots around the greens that make scoring difficult, good scrambling and bunker play will be important to again keep the bad scores off scorecards. Many approaches on this course will find water, and if they are avoiding that, they'll undoubtedly be scrambling from off the green or in bunkers.

Finally, these greens are large, which will leave these guys with a lot of long putts. Good putters that can avoid three putts from long distances will do well this weekend.

Other stats to consider: Driving Distance, Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring

Assumptions

Images and measurements were done on Google Earth. These satellite images can sometimes be up to five or more years old and not show very recent changes to courses if there were any.

Carry distance is used for off-the-tee distances shown in the images. The average carry distance on tour in 2021 was 281 yards, so that is what is used here.

I used a total dispersion off-the-tee of 60 yards. This comes from an article that Jon Sherman wrote for Practical Golf (@practicalgolf) discussing average dispersion, and I took 5-10 yards off from that number.

I assumed a 10-15 yard roll out from the carry distance to start the measurement to the green. Measurements to the green were rounded to the nearest five yards and measured from the center of the fairway to the center of the green.

Green measurements were also measured to the nearest five yards.

Things like weather, rough length, elevation, etc. are not taken into consideration on the measurements. I can only see and assume so much from satellite images. However, I do note where possible on each hole if things like elevation and wind could impact how the hole plays.

Scorecard:

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