PGA DFS: Expert Roundtable - Northern Trust

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RotoBaller PGA Expert Roundtable

Northern Trust

The Expert Roundtable article is an attempt to get you inside the minds of our PGA DFS staff for every tournament.

Our four top golf writers - Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar, Josh Bennett, and Tommy Bell - will answer the same set of questions each week to give you an idea of how they are viewing the PGA DFS slate. Let's tee it up!

Who is your favorite DFS value play?

• Joe Nicely: Abraham Ancer ($7,700)
• Spencer Aguiar: Jason Day ($9,300) - Should be $10,000+ with his current form and course history.
• Josh Bennett: Matt Kuchar (7,400)
• Tommy Bell: Joel Dahmen ($7,100)

Who is your favorite DFS “high priced” play?

• Joe Nicely: Justin Thomas ($11,300)
• Spencer Aguiar: Justin Thomas ($11,300)
• Josh Bennett: Collin Morikawa (10,200)
• Tommy Bell: Bryson DeChambeau ($11,100)

Who is your top GPP play?

• Joe Nicely: Patrick Reed  ($9,000) & Viktor Hovland ($8,200)
• Spencer Aguiar: Xander Schauffele ($9,700), Hideki Matsuyama ($8,600)
• Josh Bennett: Justin Rose (8,000)
• Tommy Bell: Sungjae Im ($7,700)

Who is your top Cash-Game play?

• Joe Nicely: Abraham Ancer  ($7,700)
• Spencer Aguiar: Patrick Reed ($9,000)
• Josh Bennett: Abraham Ancer (7,700)
• Tommy Bell: Abraham Ancer ($7,700)

Which popular golfer will you be “fading”?

• Joe Nicely: Rory McIlroy ($10,800)
• Spencer Aguiar: Billy Horschel ($7,900) - Don’t think he returns the top-25 value needed to pay off his price. 
• Josh Bennett: Jason Day (9,300)
• Tommy Bell: Dustin Johnson (10,400)

What stands out as the most important stat for this golf course?

• Joe Nicely: SG: Approach, Total Driving, Birdies or Better Gained, Proximity from 175yds+
• Spencer Aguiar: Strokes Gained Off The Tee + Approach, Proximity From 175+ Yards 
• Josh Bennett: SG: Approach
• Tommy Bell: Prox +175, SG Off the Tee, SG Approach

Who is your favorite DFS “dart throw”?

• Joe Nicely: Lanto Griffin ($6,700) & Cameron Davis ($6,300)
• Spencer Aguiar: Lanto Griffin ($6,700) and Cameron Davis ($6,300)
• Josh Bennett: Talor Gooch (6,500)
• Tommy Bell: Luke List ($6,700)

What is your favorite bet of the week? (Any type)

• Joe Nicely: Patrick Reed & Jason Day Outrights
• Spencer Aguiar: Tiger Woods over Tommy Fleetwood 
• Josh Bennett: Matt Kuchar top 10 (+1000)
• Tommy Bell: Matthew Wolff (54/1)

Make a “bold prediction” for this week:

• Joe Nicely: Collin Morikawa loses in a playoff
• Spencer Aguiar: Webb Simpson doesn’t crack the top-40, possibly missing the cut in the process.
• Josh Bennett: Someone from outside the top 30 OWGR wins
• Tommy Bell: We get a juicy three-man playoff with Matthew Wolff holing out from the fairway to beat Bryson and Rahm

Who is your favorite overall DFS golfer and why?

• Joe Nicely: Abraham Ancer ($7,700) - The DK price tag combined with Ancer’s recent form & finish in his lone prior trip to TPC Boston makes him difficult to ignore this week. He’ll be a core building block for me. 
• Spencer Aguiar: Jon Rahm ($10,000) - A mispriced option that was reduced in salary because DraftKings ran out of room up top. Rahm should be a minimum of $10,700 this week. 
• Josh Bennett: Hideki Matsuyama (8,600) - He is again underpriced in a stacked field. He's one of the best iron players in the field. A decent week of putting will put him in contention on Sunday and 8,600 is a steal for that potential
• Tommy Bell: Matthew Wolff ($7,800) - Gonna be chalky, but this guy has upside for days, and he’s in FANTASTIC form right now. Who’s better equipped in this range to challenge the big dawgs? Maybe Ancer, but he and Wolff are close!

What is your optimal DFS lineup building strategy?

• Joe Nicely: Balanced, though there are several intriguing plays $7k and below. 
• Spencer Aguiar: Balanced. I don’t mind taking some shots in the low $7,000/high $6,000 range, but I’d be careful in overly diversifying myself too much. The cream typically rises to the top in these events. 
• Josh Bennett: Balanced
• Tommy Bell: Fairly balanced. Only like 3ish guys below $7.5k at the moment

Who is your pick to win the tournament?

• Joe Nicely: Jason Day (Ok, picking Jason Day every week has been a little running joke between Spencer Aguiar and I, but I’m actually taking J-Day this week. There ya go Spencer!)
• Spencer Aguiar:  My mind says Justin Thomas or Jon Rahm, but I’m not going to miss this opportunity. JASONNNNNNN DAYYYYYY!
• Josh Bennett: Patrick Cantlay
• Tommy Bell: In my bold scenario, Matthew Wolff. But realistically, I’ll take Bryson.

Is there a question you would like to have answered every week? Hit us up on Twitter @RotoBallerPGA. We would love to hear your feedback and ideas!

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Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

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