PGA Course Preview for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Scouting the Routing

2 hours ago by Ian McNeill

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After a stirring hors d'oeuvre in Palm Beach Gardens, the PGA Tour's Florida Swing moves quickly into the first of two upcoming main courses: the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge.

"Major Championship Conditions" is a descriptor often overused in golf media, but with winning scores of (-15), (-9), (-5), (-11), and (-4) over the last four years, Bay Hill might be the closest we'll come in 2024 to see these players tested on a USGA-esque setup. And with virtually the entirety of the OWGR top 25 making the commitment to Arnie's event, a Major Championship-esque field is exactly what we've got on tap this week at the Home of the King.

Before we get into the illustrious oddsboard on tap for golf bettors Monday morning, this piece will serve to break down every key trend and statistic I'm weighing to project a player's viability in the outright market and set you up to make the crucial decisions necessary before the market shifts later in the week. Without further ado, here is my comprehensive scouting report on Bay Hill Club and Lodge and the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational!

The Golf Course

Bay Hill Club & Lodge - Par 72; 7,466 yards

Past Champions

2024 - Scottie Scheffler (-15) over Wyndham Clark
2023 - Kurt Kitayama (-9) over Rory McIlroy & Harris English
2022 - Scottie Scheffler (-5) over Hovland/Horschel/Hatton
2021 - Bryson DeChambeau (-11) over Lee Westwood
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton (-4) over Marc Leishman
2019 - Francesco Molinari (-12) over Matt Fitzpatrick

PGA National by the Numbers (Off-The-Tee):

Average Fairway Width -- 34.6 yards; 12th widest on the PGA Tour
Average Driving Distance -- 280.8 yards; Eighth lowest on Tour
Driving Accuracy -- 54.1%; Seventh lowest on Tour
Missed Fairway Penalty -- 0.40; Ninth highest on Tour
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee Difficulty: -0.032; Sixth toughest on Tour

There are some aspects of Bay Hill's layout that can be framed as comparable to our first Florida stop (difficult scoring conditions, bermudagrass greens, and an ever-present threat of water), but the two courses strongly diverge in the tests they each provide players off of the tee. Whereas PGA National plays more like the short, positional tracks we find throughout the southeast (Innisbrook, Harbour Town, Sea Island, etc.), Bay Hill's mammoth 7,460-yard layout is more reminiscent of a Major Championship setup.

Five of the ten par 4s around Bay Hill measure over 450 yards, and only the fifth, 10th, and 11th holes provide players with even the slightest option to club down for position. On most of the Par 4s and 5s at Arnie's place, the design calls for players to squeeze drivers into some of the narrowest effective landing areas on Tour.

I say "narrowest effective landing areas" because despite measuring above Tour average in actual width, the firm, fiery nature of the fairways at Bay Hill means that players hit fairways at a well-below-average clip compared to courses with similar dimensions. In fact, in three of the last four iterations of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, players have failed to crest the 55% mark in driving accuracy -- a figure more comparable to microscopically narrow fairways of Torrey Pines than the 35-yard wide landing zones they advertise in Orlando.

This across-the-board reduction in driving accuracy is further exacerbated by some of the most penalizing rough we'll see all year. Since 2015, only five courses on the PGA Tour have featured a higher stroke penalty for off-line tee shots -- with players experiencing a nearly half-shot difference compared to equivalent drives in the fairway.

As a result, we've seen as strong of a correlation between elite driving and overall performance as you'll ever see on the PGA Tour. Last year, every player that managed to gain three or more shots to the field off of the tee ended the week inside the top 25 on the leaderboard (9/9), including the winner, runner-up, third place finisher, and one of the two players tied for fourth and sixth. The year before that, every one of the top 13 players on the leaderboard gained strokes off of the tee, and in the four preceding years, only 11 of the 55 top-ten finishers managed to attain that position whilst losing strokes with their tee shots.

As opposed to other long, driver-heavy venues like Torrey Pines, I do not believe there is a set profile to follow when weighing the merits of distance versus accuracy. For every Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young, or Viktor Hovland who has bombed their way to the top of the historical SG: OTT rankings here at Bay Hill, you can also find an Emiliano Grillo, Corey Conners, or Adam Hadwin who has found repeated success with a more precise off-the-tee approach.

I do, however, believe you need to possess at least one of these elite driving traits for me to feel comfortable about your overall prospects here at Bay Hill. I'll be weighing Total Driving acumen above all else and filtering particularly strongly against players who possess deficiencies in both of these key driving attributes. The length of this layout combined with the peril awaiting wayward tee shots means Bay Hill is about as ruthless as they come when penalizing the short and inaccurate.

PGA National by the Numbers (Approach):

Green in Regulation Rate -- 57.5%; 3rd lowest on the PGA Tour
Strokes Gained: Approach Difficulty: -0.047; Third toughest on Tour
Key Proximity Ranges:
- 200+ yards (accounts for 31.7% of historical approach shots)
- 150-175 yards (18.1%)
- 175-200 yards (17.4%)

The emphasis I'm placing on ball-striking only continues as we reach the second shots here at Bay Hill. Top-five finishers on average have gained 4.3 shots to the field with their approach shots, and since 2019, only four of 77 players have managed to attain a top-ten finish whilst losing strokes in this category.

As you'd probably expect from a golf course of Bay Hill's reputation, I do not expect players this week to get a great number of wedge or short-iron opportunities into these greens. Instead, to gain the requisite amount of strokes it's taken to climb the API leaderboard, guys will have to create birdie opportunities with a long iron in hand. Last year, a whopping 49.6% of approach shots came from beyond 175 yards, and as I discussed in the previous section, the firmness of Bay Hill's turf plays a hugely adverse role in the percentage of successful outcomes.

Since 2019, Bay Hill's greens have been hit at a paltry 54.6% clip in regulation (11.3% below the Tour Average). It's ranked as a top-five course on Tour in approach difficulty in five of the last six seasons, and especially for players forced to play from 3-4" thick rough, the exceedingly firm surfaces make it practically impossible to control long-iron approach shots from running long of the green.

As a result, these two crucial ball-striking metrics are as intertwined this week as we've seen to date in 2024. Looking back at recent leaderboards, it's very rare to see a player excel on approach whilst rating poorly in driving accuracy, while you can find a clear correlation between the week's top iron players and those that have positive driving accuracy splits. I will be weighing proximity to the hole, greens in regulation, and poor shot avoidance from the aforementioned key ranges of 175 yards-plus, but this isn't a week where I'm willing to endorse an elite iron player in spite of deficiencies elsewhere. To win at Bay Hill, you'll have to check a variety of key checkpoints alongside the usual second-shot ceiling we look for every week.

PGA National by the Numbers (Around the Greens):

Scrambling Percentage -- 57.2%; 0.3% below Tour Average
Sand Save Difficulty -- +0.025; 10th easiest on Tour
SG: Around the Green Difficulty: +0.002; 12th toughest on Tour

While around the green play has historically been the least predictive of the four strokes gained metrics to success at Bay Hill (just 12.8% of total strokes gained), it's difficult to envision anyone getting across the line at this golf tournament without a few key par saves.

Over the last five years, no winner of the Arnold Palmer Invitational has rated out below field average in either SG: ARG or Sand Save %. With the green complexes themselves being some of the toughest on Tour to putt on from 5-15 feet, tap-in pars will be worth their weight in gold on a course that features ten holes with a bogey or worse rate >20%.

I will weigh ball-striking much more heavily than around the green acumen this week, but as Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa have found out in recent years, no amount of ball-striking can outrun a horribly deficient short game at the King's Court. An elite around-the-green acumen has proven to be more of a luxury than a necessity through the years at Bay Hill, but as we mentioned in the earlier off-the-tee section, this venue will not hesitate to expose those with extreme deficiencies around these treacherous green complexes.

PGA National by the Numbers (Putting):

Average Green Size: 7,500 sq. feet
Agronomy -- TifEagle Bermudagrass
Stimpmeter: 12
3-Putt Percentage: 3.1% (0.07% above Tour Average)
Strokes Gained: Putting Difficulty: -0.010; 8th toughest on Tour

Perhaps the most direct correlation between the opening two stops of the Florida Swing comes on the greens. As both are seeded with TifEagle Bermudagrass, running about a 12 on the Stimpmeter, players will once again be faced with some of the quickest putting surfaces they'll see all year. Bay Hill, in particular, is known for its lack of regard for cutting its greens down to lengths you only see in a barber shop. I can assure you that the resulting lack of friction between ground and ball will cause a lot of stress for players grinding over five-foot par putts (especially if the wind begins to blow this week in Central FL).

Over the last twelve seasons here at the King's Court, not one winner nor a runner-up has lost strokes putting in the process. Given the historic headaches we've seen players endure from short and mid-range on these greens, Bay Hill is not the place I'd be looking for a downtrodden putter to rebound. At the very least, I'll be looking for a degree of historic success on similarly lightning-quick Bermuda greens (PGA National, Sedgefield, Quail Hollow, Eastlake, etc.).

Key Stats Roundup:

Heavy emphasis on elite Total Drivers of the ball. Players who can excel in both distance and accuracy receive a sizeable leg up, but among the two, I do have a slight preference for those who can avoid Bay Hill's penal rough
Weighing a variety of different iron metrics this week, ranging from Proximity to the Hole, Strokes Gained per Shot, GIR %, and Poor Shot Avoidance. Specifically honing in on splits from 175 yards and beyond, where I expect nearly half of this week's approaches to come from
Strokes Gained on Longer Golf Courses with Difficult Scoring Conditions (Torrey Pines, Muirfield Village, and Quail Hollow offer the best stylistic fits that we see year-in and year-out, but I'll also be looking at recent performances at Major Championships).
Par 5 Scoring
Long-term Putting Splits on Fast Bermuda Greens
With low GIR rates and heavily bunkered green complexes, Sand Saves will also be an auxiliary stat in my modeling, as will a variety of key scoring stats we use at more difficult venues (Bogey Avoidance, Scrambling %, etc.)

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

The Sunday Shortlist

Before the odds come out on Monday morning, here are two to three names I’ve identified as significant targets upon my initial research.

Ludvig Aberg

Ludvig Åberg birdied 4 of his last 6 holes - the winning moment:pic.twitter.com/3euwOgM7ND

— Underdog Golf (@Underdog__Golf) February 16, 2025

As much as I try and use this spot in the article for some creative names to look out for on opening odds boards, I don't see a lot of room in the Bay Hill profile to get particularly innovative. Year after year in Orlando, we've seen nothing but Major Champions, elite prospects, and the preeminent tee-to-green entities in the sport contend for titles here.

Ludvig, of course, will be subject to much discussion about a potential hangover from his biggest career triumph at Torrey Pines three weeks ago, but nobody surrounding the game of golf can question the path he possesses to consecutive signature series wins.

In fact, the introduction for most of the golfing public to this Swedish phenomenon was as a Texas Tech senior in the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he entered the weekend in a tie for ninth -- eventually settling into 24th, his best professional result to date.

At first glance, you'd be likely to assume that the driver has done much of the heavy lifting around this mammoth, 7,400-yard layout. But in fact, over his two career appearances (both as a pro and an amateur), at Bay Hill, Ludvig has gained a combined 8.5 strokes on the greens. He's also gained strokes around the greens in five of his last six PGA starts and ranks in the 90th percentile or higher in all four of my key approach metrics from 200 yards and beyond (Strokes Gained, Proximity to the Hole, Birdie Chance Creation, and Poor Shot Avoidance).

Just three weeks ago, many golf fans (including myself), could point to Aberg's repeated failures in crunch time as the biggest wart in an ever-shrinking outright price tag. He responded by birding four of his last six holes to capture the Genesis Invitational. With those questions now answered, there isn't a lot in the statistical profile to suggest he's not capable of emerging as one of Scottie's top contenders for the World No. 1 crown.

I believe his elite combination of driving and iron play alone make him a compelling play above 15-1 at this venue, and if the short game splits act as future indicators of an undiscovered baseline, you can practically write-in this 25-year-old on the first page of every leaderboard he decides to pursue.

Justin Thomas

JUSTIN THOMAS HOLE-OUT EAGLE ON 18 TO FINISH HIS WEEK! 🦅🎯

📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/634FKSWjq1

— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) February 9, 2025

He won't be considered truly back to form by the golfing public until he stands alone with a trophy on Sunday afternoon, but Justin Thomas is showing every sign of a player destined to capture one of 2025's marquee titles. After ending his fall campaign with a second and third-place result at the ZOZO Championship and Hero World Challenge, JT has recorded three additional top 10s in the first two months of the New Year.

His last two appearances have been particularly eye-catching, as Thomas followed up a sixth-place finish in Phoenix (ranking second in the field in total ball-striking), with a ninth-place finish at the Genesis Invitational three weeks ago: logging the sixth-best approach week of his entire career (+8.0 strokes gained).

Notably, the last two times he's gained >8 strokes on approach in a week (2021 WGC-Workday; 2024 ZOZO Championship), he's followed it up with a win at the PLAYERS Championship the very next week and a 54-hole lead he eventually conceded to Scottie Scheffler in December's Hero World Challenge.

This most recent iron performance is especially pertinent for this week, as Torrey Pines is one of the few stops on the PGA Tour calendar that can rival Bay Hill in terms of approach share from 175 yards and beyond (51.5%). In three starts in Orlando, Thomas has never lost strokes in either ball-striking metric (off-the-tee or approach), and has finished five of his last eight rounds here inside the top 10.

At current prices as high as 28-1 in some spots, I don't feel books are properly rating Thomas's current vein of form. The adopted South Floridian already captured two of the Sunshine State's four annual events in his illustrious career, and there aren't many players riding as high from tee through green. It's not often I say this about the 8th-ranked golfer on an odds board, but I can safely say my numbers prefer him straight up to any player in this field outside of the consensus top three.

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