RADIO
Pebble Beach provided one of the most chaotic weeks of golf so far, with severe wind, hail, and cold temperatures harassing golfers all week. So much so that the final round will only be concluded tomorrow (Monday). We now head to Phoenix where the weather is much more temperate and the field is much more exciting as we see one of the first elevated events where the majority of the big names will be present.
We are going to ask a few questions that will guide us through a multitude of areas that impact how we go about handicapping an event. We look at historical odds of winners, traditional weather, skills that matter, and a few more interesting things. The goal of this article is to provide you with a high-level understanding of the nuances associated with this week's course and players.
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#1. Dogs or Dimes?
Were the odds of the last few winners closer to a dime or were the underdogs sniffing around the top of the leaderboard?
The odds of the last three winners were a mix of long shots and a semi-favorite at 14, 50, and 85-1.
Favorites have sniffed around the top of the board over the last three years.
Finishing positions of the golfers with the shortest odds to win:
#2. History or Mystery?
Is course history a strong predictor of success or is this week going to be a mystery?
Course history correlations are one of the highest on tour at TPC Scottsdale.
These are the golfers with the best average strokes gained (min six rounds):
These are the golfers with the worst average strokes gained (min six rounds):
#3. Birdies or Bogeys?
What kind of scoring conditions can we expect this week?
The last five winners of this event shot -16, -19, -17, -17, and -18 with the top five of those tournaments averaging -15.4, which my model considers medium difficulty.
The best strokes gained average on medium courses:
The worst strokes gained average on medium courses:
#4. Weak or Peak?
Is the strength of the field at its peak or is it weak?
The total Official World Golf Ranking points total for this week's field is 231.08. Last week's total OWGR in a 156-man field was 106.43. Pink = 2023 season, Green = 75% 2022 + 25% 2023 season.
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#5. AM or PM?
What is the weather usually like at this event?
Does not seem to get much warmer than 70 degrees this week.
#6. Distance or Direction?
Is distance or direction the most important stat off the tee?
TPC Scottsdale demands good drivers of the ball.
The best Strokes Gained off the tee in the field:
The golfers with the best good drives gained:
#7. Wedges or Woods?
Which proximity buckets are going to see the most divots this week?
60% of approach shots will come from 125-200.
These are the golfers that rate out the best when taking the above proximity buckets and prorating them:
#8. Sand or Grandstand?
Are errant approach shots going to land up in the sand or grandstands?
With 67 total bunkers on the course, TPC Scottsdale has a mixture of sand and collection areas defending its greens.
These are the golfers who excel from the fringe (collection area):
These are the golfers who struggle from the fringe (collection area):
#9. Bermuda or Bent?
Are we putting on Bermuda or Bentgrass?
The best putters on Bermuda over the last 50 rounds:
The worst putters on Bermuda over the last 50:
#10. Model or Maniac
Are there golfers who the model is not liking as much as the Maniac?
Below are the top 10 golfers in my model:
These are a few golfers who the Maniac likes, who the model overlooked a little:
Bonus Bingo Card
This bingo card is for those of you who want to watch a bunch of content and golf coverage. There is a good chance one of these replays, words, players, or narratives are brought up in the next week. If you want a Google Sheets version to update as you go through the week, click here. You will just have to make your own copy of the doc.
Hopefully, this helped you prepare for the odds dropping tomorrow morning! Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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