PGA Betting Advice - Sony Open

Spencer Aguiar digs into the Vegas betting lines to find some of his best under-the-radar plays for Sony Open.

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (76-42-8), netting nearly 42 units of profit and almost a 65% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 20 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and five so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

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There you will find a plethora of information, including course history, current form and statistical data. If you would like to change any of the weights entered onto the spreadsheet, make a copy of your own under the file tab and get started on your research today!

2020 Recap

Before we get started with the first article of 2021, I did want to recap where we stood last season with this piece. Overall, we ended the year with a 28-27 record, netting 3.9 units of profit to go along with 1.75 units in the top-20 sector. That was good enough for slightly over an eight percent ROI from our H2H plays and nearly 35% ROI on the top-20s. I plan on diving a little deeper here this year by providing more than 55 H2H selections, but I don't have any massive gripes with this article as a whole since it is the leftovers that didn't make the premium section.

Free Head-To-Head Selection 

Talor Gooch +100 over Carlos Ortiz

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

You know those high-society clubs that look down upon you if you aren't a part of them? I almost feel like we have gotten that sort of a feel in the market when it comes to golfers that played last weekend at Kapalua. There has been a ton of forgiveness bestowed upon players for their poor showing at the Tournament of Champions, and the narrative continues to be spread throughout the industry that you are drawing dead at Waialae if you weren't included in the illustrious group of "champions." Ortiz's improvement in recent months has been tremendous, but I worry that the strength of where he is gaining strokes will be negated at a property that emphasizes second shots. The Mexican golfer does most of his damage off the tee, and some red flags are lurking when you dive a little deeper into his stats. Ranking outside the top-100 in this field in strokes gained in moderate or worse wind, short putts on Bermuda and driving accuracy, Ortiz has a chance to implode out of nowhere.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

Talor Gooch doesn't necessarily have safety built into himself either. The American has missed three of his last seven cuts and hasn't exactly been sharp in his two most recent appearances at the venue, finishing 63rd last season and missing the cut in 2019. An 18th-place showing in 2018 should raise your optimism slightly, but I do believe Gooch's volatility makes him a tough golfer to trust weekly.

1.00 Units to Win 1.00

Webb Simpson -120 over Collin Morikawa

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

This is not a road you will see me go down very often, as I am not a huge proponent of grabbing two elite golfers with very little to nitpick about and facing them off against one another in the head-to-head market. It is generally difficult to locate an edge when doing this, but Webb Simpson isn't your average player. The American has shown in the past that he dominates at the same properties every year, which is emphasized by him posting five straight top-13 results at Waialae. We have seen Collin Morikawa provide a few letdowns after a disappointing final round the week prior, and I am hoping that Simpson's safety places us in a spot that will make the youngster show up with an elite result to beat him.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

This number is like trying to get ahead of lightning. The price moved before I could possibly consider it for the 'Vegas Report,' and it continues to balloon up by each passing second. I'm ok with the idea of playing it at anything under -130, but the risk becomes too much if we exceed that territory.

1.15 Units to Win 0.96

Abraham Ancer -115 over Cameron Smith

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

Cameron Smith will get a different feel this year for the Sony Open after capturing his first solo title on the PGA Tour here in 2020. That is not enough to warrant fading a player, but it does add to the potential dangers of a golfer that is getting the full benefit of his current form and past results at the property. When we look a little deeper into Smith as a player and don't let his past results tell the story, there are some issues I see. The Aussie ranks 102nd compared to the field in driving accuracy and also comes in outside the top-100 in ball-striking.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

I am not a course history truther, but Smith has been phenomenal in this event. His victory last year tells part of the story, but the 27-year-old had even provided three top-30s here before that since 2016. It is hard for me to understand how Smith ranks 20th in this field over the past two years putting but 81st on Bermuda over his last 100 rounds while still finding all the success he has at Waialae, but I am going to trust my math over the past results to help me shape this image.

1.15 Units to Win 1.00

*** There are a few plays that I am waiting to see where they go number-wise, so check back later in the week for added selections! ***

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Random Thoughts

First Round Three-Ball

Kevin Kisner +130 over Brendon Todd/Jim Herman

I am not a huge three-ball player, but we have an interesting trio here of two players I have lower than market expectation. Kisner has proven successful at Waialae in the past, and while Todd does have the potential to go low, I like the idea of being able to grab +130.

Sungjae Im +135 over Cameron Smith/Carlos Ortiz

I view this as another way to target Cameron Smith and Carlos Ortiz. Those two are featured in this particular write-up as golfers I will be fading, and Sungjae Im makes it even more enticing to take another shot against them.

Adam Scott +200 over Matt Kuchar/Harris English

Pure number grab here. Harris English is the deserving favorite, but we have gotten slightly carried away with where he is being priced next to Adam Scott. Matt Kuchar's course history has helped to keep the Aussie inflated at a number that is probably 30-40 points higher than it should be for the round.

First Round Leader

If we are looking for a few names down the board, Kevin Kisner (45/1) Adam Scott (50/1), Talor Gooch (75/1), Si Woo Kim (75/1), Brandt Snedeker (80/1), Tom Hoge (80/1), Matthew NeSmith (80/1), Henrik Norlander (100/1), Kyle Stanley (100/1) and Peter Malnati (100/1) are some of my favorite looks. This is the most volatile market in the sport and not one I generally advise investing too much into, but the goal this week should be to look for guys who either can catch fire with their putter or go wild with their irons.

2021 Premium Head-to-Head Record (0-0-0)

0.00 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

2021 Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

0-0-0 (+0.00 Units)

2021 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.025 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won (+54.255) 194.22% ROI

2018 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (37-18-2) +26.74 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won (+55.98) 51.80% ROI

2019 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won (+27.743) 40.70% ROI

2020 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (13-14-2) -1.46 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Bryson DeChambeau U.S. Open (33/1)
Dustin Johnson Travelers Championship (30/1)
Sungjae Im Honda Classic (35/1)
Patrick Reed WGC-Mexico (50/1)
Cameron Smith Sony Open (55/1)
Overall Units Won (+37.015) 20.21% ROI

Career Record (Excluding 2021 Season Results)

Premium Head to Head Bets (76-42-8) +41.785 Units
Free Head to Head Bets (28-27-0) +3.90 Units
In-Tournament Head to Head Bets (37-25-6) +5.27 Units (Half-Unit Wagers)
Outright Winners (20)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
2020 - 19
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41
2020 - 41

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