PGA Betting Advice - RSM Classic

Spencer Aguiar digs into the Vegas betting lines to find some of his best under-the-radar plays for RSM Classic.

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (76-40-8), netting nearly 44 units of profit and almost a 66% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 20 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and five so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

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Free Head-To-Head Selection 

Zach Johnson -106 over Dylan Frittelli

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

It was a brilliant Masters for Dylan Frittelli, finishing fifth in only his second appearance, but it is essential to recognize the differences between Augusta and Sea Island. Frittelli's strength as a player comes from his ability to gain strokes off the tee - a stat that will be neutralized with the shortened layout. A 35th-place result here last season does show that he can find the property to fit his eye, but I believe the increase in pricing he has received because of last week's result doesn't exactly correlate with what we should expect this weekend. I'd have priced this closer to -125 for Zach Johnson.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

Of the selections listed in this article, this was the closest to making the 'Vegas Report.' While Johnson wasn't able to better Frittelli's result here in 2019, the American has been a pristine example of what we should expect from a player at the RSM Classic. Back-to-back top-eight showings in 2017 and 2018 should place Johnson as an option with safety/upside, and I wouldn't be shocked if we see Frittelli slip-up in his first event after four hard-fought days at Augusta.

1.06 Units to Win 1.00

Henrik Norlander +108 over Adam Hadwin

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

Recent poor form has negated a lot of the good work Henrik Norlander had done earlier in the season, but a deeper dive into his results shows a golfer that is barely missing cuts because of random outlier performances. Norlander's last two failed ventures at the Bermuda and Houston Open came from one of his two rounds tanking his performance, but it is not as if either showing resulted in him missing the cut by over a shot. The robust finishes might not be as frequent as they once were, but the Swede's four straight made cuts at Sea Island, which includes two top-five finishes, should place him in a territory that makes him an undervalued commodity in Georgia.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

If nothing else, Adam Hadwin knows how to earn a paycheck. I say that with him having missed the cut at the Masters, but the RSM Classic will have a different feel for a player of Hadwin's stature. The Canadian's upside isn't quite what the public perceives it to be, but I do imagine Hadwin has plans to play four days, making this wager more volatile for numerous reasons. I still believe Norlander's ceiling wins out if he gets himself to the weekend, but I wouldn't guarantee we avoid another potential implosion.

0.93 Units to Win 1.00

*** With Henrik Norlander testing positive for COVID-19, my next two closest pivots would have been Sepp Straka +109 over J.T. Poston and Doc Redman +120 over Ian Poulter. Neither will be counted for official betting purposes, but I do believe each has some value at their current number.

Austin Cook +104 over Alex Noren

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

Austin Cook has provided two top-11s at the RSM Classic over the past three years, which includes a victory in 2017. Add that to his current form that has seen him post back-to-back top-25 results, and there is a window of opportunity that might show the American to be the safer option. Alex Noren's four tournaments over a 10-week stretch have produced two 17th-place results, but he hasn't cracked the top-75 in the additional two tournaments.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

There are certain players my model hates, and Alex Noren continues to be one of those guys. We have opposed him five times as of the last year, going (2-1-2) in the process. The sample size is too small to derive much from the results, but I have noticed that the Swede has overperformed in pretty much every wager, even the ones where we were able to find the winner's circle. I worry slightly that while Seaside has proven to be an excellent venue for Cook, Noren has historically been the better player on tour. With all that being said, my math has Cook closer to -120 for the matchup, and I am willing to take the nearly 25-point advantage we have been handed.

0.96 Units to Win 1.00

Matthew Fitzpatrick +127 over Harris English

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

Pure math play.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

Consider this a coin flip. My math has Matthew Fitzpatrick as a very marginal favorite to outlast Harris English, but I do think it is worth a wager with the seven percent implied probability edge that we are being gifted. For those that are looking for a positive equity wager, I am fine playing this at any plus-number you can grab. With ties thrown out of the mix, expect to win this roughly 51% of the time and lose it the additional 49%. The percentage might not sound great on paper, but these wagers can add up over time.

0.78 Units to Win 0.99

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2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (16-13-3)

2.40 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

27-25-0 (+4.64 Units)

2020 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.025 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+54.255) 194.22% ROI

2018 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (37-18-2) +26.74 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+55.98) 51.80% ROI

2019 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+27.743) 40.70% ROI

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

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