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PGA Betting Advice - Barracuda Championship

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (71-37-7), netting over 41 units of profit and a success rate of nearly 66%. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 19 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and four so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

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Special Bonus - Spencer's Free Cheat Sheet

Check out my brand new PGA Weekly Cheatsheet.

There you will find a plethora of information, including course history, current form and statistical data. If you would like to change any of the weights entered onto the spreadsheet, make a copy of your own under the file tab and get started on your research today!

 

Barracuda Championship

#1 - Sam Burns - 33/1

We have a first-time track for the Barracuda Championship, which adds to the dynamic of the event using Stableford scoring. For those that don't know how Stableford works, golfers will receive a modified point total based on their production. An albatross earns you eight points, eagle five, birdie two, par zero, bogey negative-one and double bogey or worse negative-three. Unlike most weeks where you are trying to post the lowest score possible, this tournament will be won by the player who yields the highest sum.

With the venue playing almost 5,900-feet above elevation, the 7,500 yards placed in front of the players will feel more like 6,800 yards when all is said and done. That means that distance off the tee may become even more enhanced with medium width fairways, and while there are trees that can come into play, I'd prefer length and ball-striking above all other non-scoring statistics.

All four par-fives at Tahoe Mountain Club are reachable in two shots, not to mention that at least two par-fours can be attacked off the tee. I believe the added distance we discussed will give players a better chance to find scoring opportunities, but it is not as if mistakes won't be punished at the track with water in play on six of the holes.

The first price that caught my eye this week was Sam Burns, who enters the event priced at his closing number during last week's 3M Open. It is dangerous to look at wagers in that fashion because one overpriced option doesn't automatically yield value when given the same number in a weaker field, but it does become curious when Burns pops up as the top-ranked player in my model.

Inside the top-10 compared to the field in strokes gained off the tee, eagles gained, par-five birdie or better percentage and driving distance, Burns enters the week having posted four consecutive top-32 results - giving him the second-best average finish result for any golfer that has played at least three events since the Puerto Rico Open.

There are some concerns that his irons and ball-striking won't be up to par at a venue that will require consistent scoring and fewer mistakes, but it is difficult to ignore his par-five scoring ability and quality putting over the field.

0.24 Units to Win 8.00

 

#2 - Jhonattan Vegas - 50/1

It was a disappointing week for all of us that backed Jhonattan Vegas during the 3M Open. The 35-year-old stumbled with a myriad of water balls during his failed two-day performance, and it didn't help matters that he lost nearly four strokes with his putter. However, despite what felt like an insufferable display from the three-time PGA Tour winner, there were many positives to take out of his short stay in Minnesota.

Not only did Vegas miss the cut on the number after all that went wrong, but he also gained 4.9 when we combine his off the tee and approach numbers. That combination of success could be a deadly one at Tahoe Mountain Club, and it becomes even further enhanced when we dive deeper into his scoring acumen.

Vegas is known to make mistakes, ranking 122nd compared to the field in bogey avoidance over his past 50 rounds, but the trouble typically stops there when we look at his second-place standing of doubles or worse avoided. The Barracuda Championship is an event that rewards birdies over bogeys, and if the Venezuelan can keep the big numbers off his card, his ball-striking prowess could shine through for an outright victory. I am fine playing this wager down to 35/1, although I don't think we see this move as drastically as that.

0.20 Units to Win 10.00

 

#3 - Will Gordon - 50/1

Will Gordon is a tough nut to crack because of the limited data we have on him so far during his career. He continues to be someone that grades out better for me than he should because of the handful of robust results he has thrown into the mix, but there is a downside that was displayed at the 3M Open of what happens when things go wrong.

Gordon ranks first in my model when it comes to birdie or better percentage, and he enters the week inside the top-10 in opportunities gained over his past 50 rounds. His 97th place ranking in bogey avoidance is concerning, but we do see him jump up to 39th compared to the field in escaping double bogey or worse.

When we take into account all the factors involved, 50/1 is a fair price for the 23-year-old as he figures out how to become more consistent on tour. The Stableford scoring does make this more appealing than it typically would because of the way Gordon can fire up birdies in bunches, but there is volatility in play with this selection. I have him properly priced at 45/1, giving us a slight long-term edge.

0.16 Units to Win 8.00

 

#4 - Adam Schenk - 60/1

Make it three straight top-41 finishes for Adam Schenk after the American was able to rally on Sunday at the 3M Open with a final round 67. I feel as if Schenk has transformed himself recently into a golfer that has learned how to make a paycheck in these stronger field tournaments, and the reduction in class makes him an intriguing upside option to consider at the Barracuda Championship.

Schenk does most of his damage off the tee and with his ball-striking, and if his birdie percentage can increase for the week, his usual steady play should allow him to skyrocket up the leaderboard. Schenk also ranks inside the top-30 compared to the field in eagles gained and is someone who is quietly asserting his name as a weekly threat.

0.13 Units to Win 8.00

 

#5 - Cameron Davis - 60/1

Arguably my favorite value play on the board, Cameron Davis' big-hitting style mixed with his ability to score is an ideal combination for a tournament that is played under different rules.

Davis has provided four top-12 finishes in his previous 12 worldwide starts, and the Aussie appears like he is once again ready to continue his early-season onslaught that produced seven straight made cuts between third and 38th place.

The 213th-ranked player in the world grades out second over his last 24 rounds in eagles gained and is ranked inside the top-15 in par-five scoring, ball striking and driving distance.

0.16 Units to Win 10.00

 

#6 - Aaron Wise - 80/1

I'm not sure I can think of a style of golf that would suit Aaron Wise better than Stableford. Wise is an explosive young golfer that makes birdies in bunches, yet his propensity for posting a lofty number on a hole has taken him out of contests in the past. Sure, that will also hurt him at an event like we have this weekend, but he can take a negative-three here and there when two birdies will negate the damage.

Wise has only made five of 16 cuts on the year, but he is actually near even on strokes gained during that duration of time. Consider the American a strong bounce-back candidate that might make noise if he can keep his mistakes limited.

0.10 Units to Win 8.00

 

#7 - Ryan Brehm - 250/1

If we exclude Ryan Brehm's previous two failed ventures at the 3M Open and Rocket Mortgage, the American had made eight of his previous nine cuts on tour.

The 34-year-old finds the majority of his issues around the green and with his putter, and the hope is that his driving ability will shine through at a venue that could reward his birdie-making skills. This number continues to be overinflated and is worth a shot in this weakened field.

0.03 Units to Win 7.50

 

***Add

Seamus Power - 150/1

Higher price this week than last. Too much value to ignore in this field.

0.04 Units to Win 6.00

 

T20 Odds Stake To Win Total Payout
Ryan Brehm 10 0.1 1 1.1
Ryan Brehm (T5) 50 0.05 2.5 2.55
Seamus Power 6 0.17 1.02 1.19
Seamus Power (T5) 30 0.06 1.8 1.86

 

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2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (11-10-2)

-0.12 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponents Finish Result Total
Sanderson Farms Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T18 (-11) MC (+4) Win 1
Safeway Open Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T7 (-12) MC (+2) Win 1
Shriners Open Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson -105 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) 61 (-9) Loss -1.15
Houston Open Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley -120 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 MC (+3) MC (+3) Push 0
Mayakoba Classic Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner -130 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T48 (-5) T76 (+1) Win 1.1
RSM Classic Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-13) MC (-3) Win 1
Sony Open J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T21 (-5) Loss -1.1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T21 (-6) T68 (+1) Win 1
Waste Management Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+5) MC (+6) Win 1
Pebble Beach Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) MC (E) Win 1
Genesis Invitational Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140 1.20 Units to Win 1.44 MC (+4) MC (+6) Win 1.44
WGC Mexico Victor Perez +107 over Tyrrell Hatton -125 1.00 Units to Win 1.07 T53 (+3) T6 (-13) Loss -1
Honda Classic Corey Conners -120 over Wyndham Clark +100 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+8) T11 (-1) Loss -1.2
Charles Schwab Matt Kuchar -110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-6) Loss -1.1
RBC Heritage Justin Rose -145 over Jordan Spieth .90 Units to Win 0.62 T14 (-16) T68 (-4) Win 0.62
Travelers Championship Ryan Palmer +130 over Billy Horschel 0.80 Units to Win 1.04 MC (-2) MC (-2) Push 0
Rocket Mortgage Mark Hubbard -120 over Chris Kirk 1.40 Units to Win 1.17 T12 (-14) T21 (-13) Win 1.17
Workday Ryan Palmer -120 over Matt Wallace 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+14) T39 (-4) Loss -1.2
3M Open Jhonattan Vegas -120 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-10) Loss -1.2
3M Open Will Gordon +130 over Patrick Rodgers 1.20 Units to Win 1.56 MC (+1) T32 (-10) Loss -1.2
3M Open Tommy Fleetwood -115 over Brooks Koepka 1.15 Units to WIn 1.00 MC (+1) MC (-1) Loss -1.15
3M Open Adam Schenk -101 over Matthias Schwab 1.15 Units to Win 1.14 T41 (-9) T32 (-10) Loss -1.15

 

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

15-17-0 (+1.13 Units)

Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponent Finish Result Total
Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T45 (-1) MC (+5) Win 1
Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T32 (-3) T53 (E) Win 1
Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (-2) T4 (-9) Loss -1.1
Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 3rd (-10) MC (+3) Win 1.6
Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 MC (+4) T21 (-5) Loss -1
Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T43 (-12) MC (-6) Win 1
Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T17 (-16) 72 (-6) Win 1
Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 1st (-15) T55 (-1) Win 1
Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T16 (-7) Loss -1.1
Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T49 (-2) T3 (-12) Loss -1
Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T49 (-3) T9 (-11) Loss -1
Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 1st (-17) T9 (-11) Win 1.6
Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (E) T9 (-11) Loss -1.15
Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 MC (-2) MC (-1) Win 0.67
Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 T64 (+3) T11 (-7) Loss -0.5
Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 MC (-1) T55 (E) Loss -0.6
Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 67th (+10) MC (+3) Win 1.1
Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen 1.00 Units to Win 1.15 11th (-11) T51 (+2) Win 1.15
Gary Woodland -110 over Justin Rose 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T8 (-2) MC (+6) Win 1
Tony Finau -103 over Jason Day 0.75 Units to Win 0.73 MC (+5) WD Win 0.73
Bubba Watson -105 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 0.75 Units to Win 0.71 MC (+7) T9 (+1) Loss -0.75
Sungjae Im +101 over Patrick Reed 0.75 Units to Win 0.76 3rd (-2) T15 (+3) Win 0.76
Russell Knox -135 over Bubba Watson 0.75 Units to Win 0.56 MC (+6) T7 9-13) Loss -0.75
Byeong Hun An -115 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.75 Units to Win 0.65 MC (+6) MC (+1) Loss -0.75
Sungjae Im +100 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+4) T13 (+1) Loss -1
Adam Hadwin -105 over Ian Poulter 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T54 (+9( MC (+5) Win 1
Shane Lowry +120 over Corey Conners 0.88 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+4) T22 (+3) Loss -0.88
Lucas Glover -110 over Scottie Scheffler 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (+5) T22 (+3) Loss -1.1
Peter Uihlein +175 over Brian Harman 0.50 Units to Win 0.88 T62 (-3) T41 (-9) Loss -0.5
Doc Redman +100 over Russell Henley 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 MC (+1) MC (-1) Loss -0.7
Ryan Armour +100 over Chris Kirk 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 MC (E) T41 (-9) Loss -0.7

 

2020 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Player Event Odds Finish Position
Cameron Smith Sony Open 55 1
Patrick Reed WGC Mexico 50 1
Sungjae Im Honda Classic 35 1
Dustin Johnson Travelers Championship 30 1
Abraham Ancer American Express 50 2
Abraham Ancer RBC Heritage 125 2
Max Homa 3M Open 80 3
Bud Cauley American Express 110 4
Adam Hadwin Rocket Mortgage 70 4
Joaquin Niemann Sentry TOC 50 5
Joaquin Niemann RBC Heritage 200 5
Justin Thomas WGC Mexico 11 6
Dustin Johnson Sentry TOC 10 7
Russell Henley Honda Classic 100 8
Maverick McNealy Rocket Mortgage 100 8
Tony Finau Memorial 66 8
Xander Schauffele ZOZO Championship 25 10
Andrew Putnam American Express 66 10
Dustin Johnson Genesis Invitational 15 10


Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

 

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

  Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.

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Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Week 12 Matchups Analysis

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to another start'em and sit'em piece as we look ahead to Week 12! There will be a whopping six teams on bye this week (Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, New Orleans Saints, Jacksonville Jaguars, and New York Jets), so that means fantasy managers might need to look deeper on their benches. This Week 12 matchups […]


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, WR, Waiver Wire, NFL DFS, Rookies

Fantasy Football Injury Reports: Week 12 Updates for Mike Evans, Malik Nabers, D'Andre Swift, Brock Purdy, Keenan Allen

Heading into Week 12 of the NFL season, injuries continue to impact the upcoming schedule. These play a huge factor in start/sit decisions for fantasy managers. Our injury updates and reports for Week 12 as of Sunday, November 24, 2024, will give you the latest updates on key fantasy football players. The injury news for […]


DK Metcalf - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS and Betting Picks

Wide Receiver Matchups to Target in Week 12 - DK Metcalf, Courtland Sutton, Jauan Jennings, Noah Brown, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

Week 12 is here, and with it, another edition of WR Matchups to Target. Last week was one of our most successful of the season, with two home run DFS picks (3x multiplier on DraftKings salary) in Jauan Jennings and Marquez Valdes-Scantling to go along with two additional hits (2x multiplier). Week 12 brings a […]


Cooper Kupp - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

NFL DFS: DraftKings, FanDuel SNF Eagles vs. Rams Daily Fantasy Football Picks - Sunday Night Showdown Slate (Week 12)

Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have what should be a really fun matchup as Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles (8-2) head west to take on Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams (5-5). The Eagles have now ripped off six straight wins and are looking to keep pace with the Detroit Lions atop the NFC, […]


Bucky Irving - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Key Starters and Tough Calls - Week 12 Lineup Spotlights for Fantasy Football Include Bucky Irving, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DeVaughn Vele, Rome Odunze

Welcome RotoBallers to our Week 12 fantasy football lineup spotlights, where we discuss key starters and tough calls for Week 12 fantasy lineups. Scott Engel’s Lineup Spotlights on RotoBaller.com feature key players to consider starting every week during the 2024 fantasy football season. “The King” highlights preferred starting options when you are dealing with challenging […]


Matthew Stafford - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Landmines to Avoid for Week 12 - Matthew Stafford, D'Andre Swift, Mark Andrews, and more

Week 12 in the fantasy football season is a critical juncture. With six teams on bye, options are slim, and managers must make savvy lineup decisions as the playoffs loom.  One misstep—a "landmine" starter who underperforms—could cost you a victory and potentially a playoff berth. This week, we spotlight five players who may look tempting […]


Devaughn Vele - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

High-Upside Bench Stashes: Weekend Waiver Wire Adds for Week 12 Includes Blake Corum, Trey Benson, Keaton Mitchell, Jaylen Wright, Devaughn Vele, Theo Johnson, and more

Mastering the waiver wire is a crucial skill that can lead you to a fantasy football championship. It's not just about strategically placing your FAAB budget on specific players but also about knowing when to stash players. This dual strategy keeps you engaged and focused on your ultimate goal of winning a fantasy championship. As […]


Kareem Hunt - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, NFL Injury News

2024 Fantasy Football Rankings (Weekly Rankings)

Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.


Tampa Bay Bucs Defense D/ST Streamers, Rankings, Waiver Wire - Vita Vea Fantasy Football IDP

Week 12 Team Defense Rankings for Fantasy Football: D/ST Updates for Buccaneers D/ST, Chiefs D/ST, Commanders D/ST, Vikings D/ST, Lions D/ST

If you've struggled to get strong production out of your D/ST and need a few wins to qualify for the fantasy football playoffs, you have come to the right place. Our NFL team's Week 12 fantasy football defense (D/ST) rankings are here to guide you in setting the best optimal lineup. The Broncos, Chiefs, and Vikings […]


C.J. Stroud - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Week 12 Superflex 2QB Rankings for Fantasy Football: Updates for C.J. Stroud, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield

With bye weeks and injuries being major factors this week, Superflex fantasy managers will need to dive deeper into the rankings to find the top available options. Our Week 12 fantasy football Superflex rankings (2QB) for 2024 are here to help you navigate close start-or-sit calls and take home a "W" in an important week […]