PGA Betting Advice - American Express

Spencer Aguiar digs into the Vegas betting lines to find some of his best under-the-radar plays for American Express

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (76-43-8), netting over 40 units of profit and almost a 64% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 20 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and five so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

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Free Head-To-Head Selection 

Sepp Straka -110 over Joel Dahmen

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

A cool five-under 65 helped Sepp Straka climb into 25th place to close out last week's Sony Open, and it might spark deja vu for the 27-year-old, who finished last year's trip to Hawaii in the same fashion. Straka, of course, turned his 2020 run into a fourth-place showing as he took on the Stadium Course, and the stats are pointing towards that possibility coming to fruition once again. Ranked inside the top-15 in my weighted model for par-three scoring and par-five birdie or better percentage, there is some upside present for the man that has made eight of his last nine cuts.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

We have seen a little movement in this number before I could get the article out, and the consensus is sitting closer to -120 around the industry. I typically recommend lowering the exposure marginally when you cannot get the best of the price but make no mistake about it; I still have Straka as someone who should be closer to the -140 range. Dahmen isn't the best natural head-to-head target I could dream up for the Austrian after producing seven made cuts over his last eight events, but the two missed cuts we have seen out of the American at this property should suggest that some of his par-five woes could rear its ugly head again.

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

Wyndham Clark -115 over Peter Malnati

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

Nobody tends to run more hot and cold than Peter Malnati, and last week's 14th-place at the Sony Open has given us an opportunity to fade the 33-year-old at a better price. Malnati has finished 77th place or worse at this venue during four of his five trips, and a bad start on day one could be enough to take him out of the running if he doesn't find himself at the top of the leaderboard like he did last weekend.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

Opposing Malnati is like playing with fire. Sure, there is a chance that his good form could continue, but I am willing to take a stand that a golfer I have ranked 97th compared to this field from a statistical perspective will underachieve inside of his inflated matchup range. Wyndham Clark is only 1-for-2 in made cuts at PGA West himself, but three top-25s over his previous four events is a good sign that he will find one of his preferred surfaces to suit his eye.

1.15 Units to Win 1.00

Brian Harman -110 over Si Woo Kim

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

The cat is out of the bag when it comes to Si Woo Kim's dominance at Pete Dye courses, but does it give us a chance to oppose the South Korean at an overinflated price? I believe so. Kim is ranked 145th in this field over his last 100 rounds when it comes to strokes gained putting on Bermuda greens, and my model has him outside of the top-100 in par-five birdie or better percentage over the last two years. I won't argue against the mindset of those who believe the 25-year-old has a chance to walk out of La Quinta victorious, but this is a market that allows us to hone in inconsistencies from a statistical sense.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

Pete Dye success. Winning upside. Good course history. And very solid form. Those are traits Kim brings to the table for the American Express, but he will most likely need everything to click to get himself a victory over Brian Harman. The American has four top-25s over the last five years at this venue and should be considered a favorite to add another to his tab.

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

More To Potentially Come - Stay Tuned!

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

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First Round Leader

I am still not convinced this market is beatable, but it is one of the most commonly requested things I am asked to do weekly. I have decided to use my 'Seven Deadly Sins' game that I played during the Masters to narrow the field down to 10 players - Dustin Johnson included in that mix and will see if we can't condense this market slightly.

*** Books have decided to split markets between courses. Step number one of my elimination process was already done by them and will reduce odds across the board. 

1. Everyone playing the Stadium Course is eliminated. It is a bold approach to take by removing 50% of the field right off the bat, but the Nicklaus Course has played about two shots easier per round over the last few years. That eliminates a few big guns right off the bat like Abraham Ancer, Scottie Scheffler and Patrick Reed.
2. Anyone outside of the top-65 in both stats and overall rank in my model. Here we get rid of some of the fluff that made its way onto this preferred track. Surprisingly, we are left with a smaller list than you might expect of names that survived two rounds.
3.  Outside of the top-65 in par-five birdie or better percentage + the par-five re-weighted category that I created. We get four holes there and will probably need our golfer to sweep the board if we want a real shot at ending up top.
4. Outside of the top-65 in birdie or better percentage.
5. Outside of the top-50 in both par-three average and sand save percentage.
6. Worse than 120th in putting

That leaves us with 11 survivors: Brian Harman, J.T. Poston, Patrick Cantlay, Rickie Fowler, Maverick McNealy, Cameron Davis, Bronson Burgoon, Sepp Straka, Sungjae Im, Ryan Armour and Cameron Tringale.

7. Outside of the top-65 in proximity from 150-175 yards

We somehow lose eight of the final 11 names when using that final stat, leaving us with a final three of Brian Harman, Sepp Straka and Cameron Davis. I am ok with adding any of the 11 names for the right price and will probably take a few shots on the list above. McNealy, Armour and Tringale will most likely be the three that are most intriguing to me when we get past the group that made the final cut.

If looking at the Stadium Course, I like Mark Hubbard at 80/1 and Anirban Lahiri at 100/1. Those numbers can be found a little higher at some places, but that feels like a good middle price for the sake of this article.

2021 Premium Head-to-Head Record (0-1-0)

- 1.45 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

1-2-0 (-1.19 Units)

2021 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.025 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won (+54.255) 194.22% ROI

2018 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (37-18-2) +26.74 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won (+55.98) 51.80% ROI

2019 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won (+27.743) 40.70% ROI

2020 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (13-14-2) -1.46 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Bryson DeChambeau U.S. Open (33/1)
Dustin Johnson Travelers Championship (30/1)
Sungjae Im Honda Classic (35/1)
Patrick Reed WGC-Mexico (50/1)
Cameron Smith Sony Open (55/1)
Overall Units Won (+37.015) 20.21% ROI

Career Record (Excluding 2021 Season Results)

Premium Head to Head Bets (76-42-8) +41.785 Units
Free Head to Head Bets (28-27-0) +3.90 Units
In-Tournament Head to Head Bets (37-25-6) +5.27 Units (Half-Unit Wagers)
Outright Winners (20)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
2020 - 19
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41
2020 - 41

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