PGA Betting Advice - 3M Open

Spencer Aguiar digs into the Vegas betting lines to find some of his best under-the-radar plays for the 3M Open

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

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In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

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Head-To-Head Selection

Peter Uihlein +175 over Brian Harman -195

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

I think one of the misunderstood concepts in sports betting is the term "value." When I say that I don't have Peter Uihlein winning this matchup as often as Brian Harman, it raises some eyebrows as to why am I betting on a golfer who won't win as frequently as his opponent. However, at the end of the day, everything has a price worth betting if we set a line high or low enough. If you wanted to sit there and flip coins 1,000,000 times and you would give me $1.10 every time it comes heads and I give you $1.00 every time it comes tails, I am going to use my long-term edge for the full duration of flips, even if it has come tails 20 straight times. That is the best way to describe finding value in sports. I have Uihlein properly priced at +130, giving us an edge of seven percent in terms of implied win probability.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

It is difficult for me to find many statistical reasons to get behind Peter Uihlein. The American has blow-up potential, isn't a good driver of the ball and has been shaky as of late. The same sentiments can be said about Brian Harman when push comes to shove, but his upside is clearly more pronounced than that of Uihlein. Consider this to be a number grab.

0.50 Units to Win 0.88

Doc Redman +100 over Russell Henley -120

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

Not as big of a disparity in this matchup as the first one, but we are back in a more typical situation where Russell Henley is the wrong man favorite. Doc Redman's missed cut at this venue last year mixed with his failed venture last weekend at Muirfield Village has stunted his outlook for some, but it's a good spot for us to use his slight mispricing to extract value out of a head-to-head wager. Henley's price across the board is a little overvalued to me, and while I am not necessarily discounting his chances to find success, I do believe his projections have been placed in the wrong threshold of players. I have Redman accurately priced at right around -120, and it is enough to take our four percent edge and run with it.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

Henley isn't a natural fade from a statistical perspective. His game fits decently for how we should expect TPC Twin Cities to play, and his recent form has been impressive with four top-32 showings in his previous five events. All of that short-term success is outweighing what my model deems to be correct over a longer period of time, but it is worth noting that I tend to be late to the party when discussing changes to the norm in these situations.

0.70 Units to Win 0.70

Ryan Armour +100 over Chris Kirk -120

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

It feels as if Chris Kirk has become someone we are looking to fade in this article weekly. The story of him overcoming his addiction is a reason to get behind the American, but feel-good narratives don't work in the gambling world. That anecdote has been told numerous times in recent weeks, and I do think it has caused Kirk to draw more interest than he typically would if we didn't have a tale to point towards.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

I hope I am wrong, but I don't like or trust Ryan Armour in Minnesota. My model has the incorrect man being favorite by about 25 points, but it doesn't mean I entirely trust Armour to hold up his end of the bargain. There does seem to be a decent chance that we see this matchup go MC/MC, which will leave us sweating a Friday finish.

0.70 Units to Win 0.70

Top-20 Recommendations (All Ties Pay Fully)

Luke List (+200) - 0.37 Units to Win 0.74

It has been nice to see Luke List show some signs of life after a troublesome past year on tour. The big-hitting American has recorded two-straight top-21 results, including an impressive share of 10th last weekend at Muirfield Village.

Doc Redman (+250) - 0.30 to Win 0.75

For some reason, Doc Redman's price has continued to slide throughout all markets since Monday. I have him as the sixth-rated player on my model, and the 22-year-old has provided three top-21 results in his previous four events. His missed cut at the Memorial should be thrown out the window because of the tough course conditions and not having to play four grueling rounds might work as a benefit for him this week.

First-Round Leader

Dustin Johnson 25/1 - 0.10 to Win 2.20

Doc Redman 50/1 - 0.04 to Win 2.00

Jhonattan Vegas 66/1 - 0.03 to Win 1.98

Ryan Brehm 200/1 - 0.03 to Win 6.00

I don't do much dabbling in the first-round leader market but have been asked to give some recommendations. I'd approach these plays with extreme caution, which explains the limited win totals given.

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2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (11-6-2)

+4.58 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

15-14-0 (+2.93 Units)

2020 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41
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