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New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso endured a 2020 season which fell short of expectations coming off his breakout 2019 rookie campaign. After posting a .260/.358/.583 line in 2019, Alonso put up just a .231/.326/.490 line over 239 plate appearances in 2020. Alonso also clubbed 16 home runs, with six doubles and 35 RBI on the season. These final numbers were aided, in large part, to a hot final ten games in which he hit five home runs and drove in 9 runs.
Alonso’s power numbers were certainly not as eye-popping as his 53 HR and 120 RBI totals of 2019. This, however, was no fault of his own. If extrapolated over the course of a full 162-game season, his final 2020 HR and RBI totals were not far off of his 2019 totals. Specifically, assuming Alonso matched the 693 plate appearances he had in 2019, his 2020 numbers multiplied by a factor of 2.90 (693PA/239 PA) equated to a very solid 46 HR and 101 RBI season.
Alonso’s large decline in batting average and on-base percentage was the primary takeaway from his 2020 season. While we anticipated some regression in these areas coming into the season, his 29-point and 32-point drops in average and OBP, respectively, were surprising. As a result, this could give rise to some concern heading into 2021.
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The Struggles Were Real
Looking more closely at the decline in these areas, we see that toward the end of July, Alonso’s overall barrel rate was less than nine percent. In addition, around the end of July, his hard-hit percentage, strikeout rate, and launch angle numbers were all off of his 2019 numbers by as much as 10-11%. This would suggest that he was having some type of timing issue with his swing.
By season’s end, Alonso managed to raise his overall barrel rate to 12.8%. While not as impressive as his barrel rate of 15.8% from 2019, it was still in the top 84th percentile in all of baseball. Furthermore, his final overall launch angle, overall exit velocity, strikeout rate, hard-hit rate, and walk rate numbers all ended up close to his final 2019 totals. Accordingly, it appears he managed to correct any mechanical issues he was suffering from early in the season possibly caused by the extended COVID-19 layoff and related spring training shut down.
A sharp downturn in Alonso's 2020 chase contact percentage may have also contributed to a decline in batting average and OBP. While his overall chase rate was very similar to his chase rate from 2019 (in fact, his chase percentage actually declined by over one percent in 2020), when he did chase, his contact rate was poor.
Specifically, in 2020, Alonso’s chase contact percentage was only 47.8%. This percentage was way off of his 2019 chase contact percentage of 58.3% and the MLB league average of 59.4%. As a result, it appears his slow start was exacerbated by his inability to consistently put balls outside the zone into play throughout the season.
2021 Outlook
Based on the consistency we have seen from Alonso in his overall barrel rate, overall launch angle, and overall exit velocity figures over the past two seasons, we should expect his power and RBI totals to mirror his previous totals in 2021. These figures may even improve if the Mets, now with new ownership under Steve Cohen, are heavy players in the free-agent market and bolster their lineup with someone like George Springer and/or J.T. Realmuto. This could give Alonso more RBI opportunities and additional lineup protection.
As such, Alonso should be a safe bet for 45-to-50 HR to go with over 100 RBI, with the potential for much more. In addition, if the COVID-19 pandemic is behind us by spring, perhaps the early season timing issues Alonso experienced in 2020 don’t carry over into the regular season with a full spring training slate on tap. If Alonso can also work on his chase contact rate, and it regresses closer to his 2019 chase contact percentage, we could see additional positive regression in batting average and OBP. As such, a line of around .250/.340/.540, falling somewhere between his 2019 and 2020 numbers, is certainly attainable.
With regression from his 2019 breakout already built into his ADP coming into 2020, it is likely Alonso’s ADP for 2021 will remain in the 50-to-55 range. With an ADP of 55, you can certainly do a lot worse at first base than Alonso. He should put up a .250/.340/.540 line with 45-50 HR and 100-110 RBI (with an opportunity for more) in a potentially stacked Mets lineup.
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