AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Course Preview and Breakdown (2024 PGA DFS, Golf Betting Analysis)

1 year ago by Joe I (TourPicks)

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Hello and welcome to my official course and tournament preview piece for the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The goal each week is to provide a comprehensive and in-depth look at the specs of the golf course to help you best understand historical trends and stat profiles that have proven to be indicators of success at this tournament in the past. The golf course is the everchanging variable week to week on the PGA Tour and it is pivotal to understand the specs in great detail while researching the tournament.

For the final time this season, we once again have a tournament held at multiple golf courses. This week the pros will split the first two days between Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill. Those players who make the cut, will proceed to play solely at Pebble Beach Golf Links on the weekend and will ditch the amateurs this year.

We have a fair amount of statistical history and data to rely on when attempting to handicap players at Pebble Beach. Everyone knows the ins and outs of Pebble Beach. Potentially the biggest nuance this week that we need to figure out is how the course will be setup by tournament officials. With far less focus on making the course "playable" for the Amateurs, we could see a greater willingness to sharper the teeth and present a difficult task in our second Signature Event of the season!

An Introduction to the Courses

Much like last week, with three out of four rounds being held at Pebble Beach, I'm going to put the bulk of my research in that basket. Pebble Beach Golf Links was founded in 1919 and designed by Jack Neville and Douglas Grant. If you don't recognize those names in the analogs of golf course architecture, it's because their portfolio essentially consists of this one masterpiece. In my opinion, they made the most of the piece of land they acquired, creating breathtaking views and holes that even 100 years later stand tall as some of the most recognizable in the game.

The unfortunate piece of the equation is that in recent history, the power and distance possessed by the modern player has rendered many of the holes inconsequential. At less than 7,000 yards on the scorecard, it presents us with one of the shortest golf courses we see all year long. We wider than average fairways and minimal penalty in the rough, a players prowess Off-The-Tee has been completely devalued in recent years.

That said, it's been since the US Open since we have seen a field of this caliber take on Pebble Beach. While I don't believe the rough will play anywhere near the penalty it did during that particular week, we could superintendents "let it grow" over the weekend and utilize tricky pin locations to beefen up the defense.

Spyglass Hill will once again play alternate host at this event during the first two days. The Rober Trent Jones design from 1966 (recently renovated in 1999) has also hosted multiple US Amatuers in the last 25 years. The course plays ever so slightly longer, features marginally larger greens in size, and is slightly more protected from the Pacific Ocean winds and potential weather. Spyglass typically plays a bit tougher than Pebble Beach if all things are equal with the weather, which is something to consider for Showdown or LIVE in-tournament action.

Recent Winners

2023: Justin Rose -18

2022: Tom Hoge -19

2021: Daniel Berger -18

2020: Nick Taylor -19

2019 Phil Mickelson -19

2018: Ted Potter Jr -17

2017: Jordan Spieth -19

As you can see, the winning score has been remarkably consistent over recent years. It will be interesting to see if this changes at all this week with less emphasis on the amateur portion of the event and elevated field strength.

The Scorecard - Pebble Beach Golf Links

Course Specs

As we mentioned earlier, Pebble Beach is under 7,000 yards and does not do the best job of separating the elite players in the field Off-the-Tee. On a good day, players may hit Driver as much as 9 times and potentially as little as 7 times. Players historically get off to hot starts on the opening 6 holes which feature two extremely gettable par-fives and three very short par-fours averaging only 372 yards. At a minimum, you need to play the first six holes in -3 under par if you want to have a chance at this course.

The iconic 106-yard hole #7 can either play easy or hard based on the wind and weather conditions. Holes 8 and 9 offer jaw dropping views of the Pacific cliffs and coast and play as the two most difficult holes on the front nine. The back nine typically plays a bit tougher, particularly the stretch between 10-14 which features the two longest par-fours at 446 yards and 445 yards, along with 580 yard par-five #14 which can play very tough on a given day if it is into the wind.

Finally, you are going to be well sourced all week on the fact that Pebble Beach features the smallest square footage of green surfaces that we see all year, averaging an outrageous 3500 sq. ft. This ofcourse puts an added emphasis on approach play, but given that most players will be coming into these POA greens with a wedge vs. a long iron, the Greens in Regulation percentage is actually higher than Tour Average.

Pebble Beach Specs

Design: 1919 Neville & Grant
Par 72, 6,972 yards
Fairways and rough: Ryegrass/POA Annua
Greens: 3,500 st ft Poa annua
116 bunkers
1 giant water hazard called the Pacific Ocean
Set to host the US Open again in 2027.

Statistical Considerations

With a complete and utter devaluation of a player's ability OTT, it creates an interesting dilemma this week because this is the skill set primarily relied upon by the best players in the field. In theory, it opens up the possibility of another potential long-shot winner. That said, we have to be due for some regression to the norm...right? They always cut the rough down for this event and there are just so many holes in which Driver is not necessary.

Now, does this mean that distance is not important? I would say no. Distance always matters. The longest players in the field will be able to hit launched controlled irons off the tee with enough distance to put themselves into Pitching wedge range, without the dispersion risk of longer clubs. It should also allow them to hit their approach shots onto the par-fives from closer range, thus giving them a greater chance of holding the small greens.

Putting is always going to be a big factor at Pebble Beach, which is why it should come as no surprise that two of the best putters over the last 10 years, Jordan Spieth and Jason Day, have had arguably more success than anyone at this event. I would look closely at players with a tendency to putt their best on POA, but it's always highly variable to put too much emphasis in this area as we know. Take a look at last week with Pavon and Hojgaard, both players had barely any history on POA yet they finished the week as big gainers on the greens.

You have to focus on players who have been very sharp in proximity to the hole from 75-150 yards. In last year's tournament, nearly 45% of all approach shots came from inside of 150 yards to the hole which is substantially above the Tour average from that range. The other interesting range is 200-225 yards and I feel like it may go overlooked. You are likely to hit from this range on all the par-fives and two of the par-threes. Also, in most occasions, hitting a 200-225-yard shot off the tee if ideal, so players that are proficient with this club should feel very comfortable knowing they can split the fairways on a number of holes and get themselves to an ideal yardage for their approach shot.

Approach shot distribution from 2023 at Pebble Beach via Datagolf: