Pavin Smith (OF, ARI) - Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 5

BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Team Leagues

ROSTERED IN: 2% of Leagues

ANALYSIS: After an injury to starting outfielder Kyle Lewis, the Arizona Diamondbacks called up minor-league outfielder Pavin Smith.

It isn’t the 27-year-old’s first rodeo. Smith has 802 major league at-bats under his belt. The 2017 first-round pick debuted in 2020 but appeared in just 12 games. In 2021 he appeared in 145 games, slashing .267/.328/.404 with 11 home runs and 106 strikeouts. He was optioned by the organization in 2022 after slashing .220/.300/.367 with a 24.2% strikeout rate. With a .217 average in Triple-A after being demoted, many wrote off Pavin Smith as a bust.

Smith has dispelled those allegations since his call-up, slashing .364/.440/.773 with two home runs and 10 RBI in eight games.

GRAND SALAMI FOR PAVIN SMITH! pic.twitter.com/7G6n31Ud2a

— Bally Sports Arizona (@BALLYSPORTSAZ) April 18, 2023

It’s too early to overreact to most Statcast data, but Smith’s improved plate discipline is a sign that his hot start is not subject to serious regression. He currently has a 20% K rate, a cutdown compared to last year’s 24% K rate. On the other side, he has a 12% walk rate – far higher than his career-average 8.8% walk rate. In terms of approach, he is chasing far less, from a 24.1% chase rate last season to 16.7% this season.

The Florida native is an unquestioned waiver-wire add for the next few weeks, but his case gets complicated when Kyle Lewis returns from injury. Somebody in the Diamondbacks outfield will have their head on the chopping block. Corbin Carroll, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Alek Thomas are all firmly planted in outfield roles, leaving Jake McCarthy, Kyle Lewis, and Pavin Smith in competition for the DH and fourth outfielder spot.

In that situation, you should lean towards Smith. Kyle Lewis has already been out-of-play for an extended period this season. And his strikeout issues have only worsened to a horrific 50% K rate this year. I wouldn't be surprised if he has a longer-than-expected rehab stint in the minors.

Jake McCarthy had a decent .337 wOBA in 2022, but this season's .202 wOBA mark puts him on the outs. It would do good for McCarthy to get some low-pressure at-bats at Triple-A. Pick up Pavin Smith as a stopgap, but know there is potential for more.

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