Patriots vs. Jets TNF Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Rhamdondre Stevenson, Hunter Henry, Aaron Rodgers, Garrett Wilson, Braelon Allen, Allen Lazard, Antonio Gibson

After seeing the Ravens, Chiefs, Bills, and Dolphins on the first two Thursday Night Football games of the season, we are now getting a New England Patriots team whose wins over-under was 4.5 in the preseason and the New York Jets who are seeking to find an offensive identity. This game doesn't offer the amount of fantasy football star power as the first two weeks, but there are still plenty of high-end options and lineup decisions to make.

Despite a large spread and a low total, often these AFC East matchups are close affairs and both of these teams have defenses that can keep their offenses in the game. Much of this game will come down to each team's defenses and each team's success in the running game.

I will be bringing you Thursday Night Football analysis all year long, focusing on who to start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. Let's dive into this next awesome Thursday night matchup for Week 3 of the 2024 season. Good luck, RotoBallers!

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New England Patriots @ New York Jets - 8:20 pm ET

Notable Injuries:

• Jermaine Johnson - LB, NYJ - Out
• C.J. Mosley - LB, NYJ - Questionable

Patriots at Jets Matchup Breakdown

The New England Patriots come into this game with a 1-1 record after losing to the Seahawks in overtime and defeating Cincinnati in Week 1. They are still sticking with Jacoby Brissett as quarterback over Drake Maye as he allows them to have a game manager who can comply with what they want to do.

The Patriots are fifth in the league in rushing play percentage (57.7%). In their one road game, they rushed the ball almost 61% of the time and we can expect a very similar game plan on the road against the Jets. Not only do they run, but they play slowly. At 32.2 seconds per play, they rank 26th in the league.

On deck for Thursday Night Football 🏈#NEvsNYJ – Thursday 8:15pm ET on Prime Video
Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/GC1KUbE2y7

— NFL (@NFL) September 17, 2024

New England will try to continue to play slow and run the ball so they can keep the faster-paced, more efficient New York Jets offense off the field. The Jets are exactly middle of the pack in both seconds per play (29.4) and rushing play percentage (41%). However, the Jets have struggled to make it into the red zone in both of their first two games.

New York is 25th in the NFL with 2.0 red zone trips per game, so they can't just rely on long plays from their running backs and a free play touchdown to Allen Lazard due to a penalty. If the Patriots can keep the Jets out of the red zone and control the clock with the run game, it could be a long night for the J-E-T-S.

Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE)

Rhamondre Stevenson may not get spoken about the same way as players like Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson, but he has just as much work. He tallied up nine red zone opportunities in Week 2, the most of any running back. He is also third in carries, seventh in snap share, eighth in targets, and third in red zone targets.

The Jets were gashed on the ground by Jordan Mason in Week 1, another big bruising back. And Stevenson also has added pass-catching to his repertoire this season.

Rhamondre Stevenson has been excellent this season. 3.09 yards per carry after contact. Tied for 1st in missed tackles forced. Consistently finishing runs. pic.twitter.com/Jx4HdIabrH

— JohnnyLFootball (@JohnnyLFootball) September 18, 2024

Breece Hall (RB, NYJ)

So far, the Patriots are a top-ten team against running backs this season. They have allowed only 93 total rushing yards through two games, third-best in the league. However, they have somehow allowed two rushing touchdowns and 10 receptions already to running backs, so Breece Hall has multiple paths to success.

Hall has the best target share among running backs so far and has played on the fifth-highest percentage of offensive snaps among running backs. Even if the Patriots provide a tough path to run, volume should make up for that on Thursday.

Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ)

Through two weeks, Garrett Wilson sits at WR37 in total half-PPR fantasy points. So technically, he has not been a starter in 12-team leagues that start three wide receivers, but there are signs an improvement is coming. He is 12th in target share, third in snap share, 14th in air yards share, and ninth in red zone targets.

The Patriots have allowed the fourth-most yards to wide receivers so far this season.

There are currently 2 WRs with 29+% target share and 44+% air yard share:

*2 games played only*

Malik Nabers
Garrett Wilson

The breakout game is coming for Wilson.

Be patient.

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) September 18, 2024

Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Hunter Henry (TE, NE)

Hunter Henry had one of the best games of his career last week, going for eight catches and 109 yards. Those yards and his 90% route participation led the tight end position. I expect Henry to be more of a security blanket for Jacoby Brissett going forward, and another game with 10 targets would not be a shock.

Aaron Rodgers (QB, NYJ)

The Jets are 11th through two weeks in passing play percentage, which is the glass-half-full perspective. However, Aaron Rodgers has been mostly inefficient, ranking 25th in passing yards, 24th in air yards, and 20th in red zone pass attempts. He is still 15th in fantasy points per dropback, so he is a borderline starter right now.

If you are deciding between players like Rodgers and Will Levis, Caleb Williams, or even Matthew Stafford, I believe Rodgers is the play this week.

Aaron Rodgers’ best plays so far this season #JetUp pic.twitter.com/jL4AcWxQSD

— 𝙅𝙀𝙏𝙎 𝙈𝙀𝘿𝙄𝘼🛫 (@NYJets_Media) September 17, 2024

Braelon Allen (RB, NYJ)

Sunday's game against Tennessee was not a blowout, so the breakdown of usage and snaps between Breece Hall and Barelon Allen may be what we can expect over the games to come. Allen saw 35% of snaps, and touched the ball nine times for 56 yards and two touchdowns. Allen is likely only a flex play right now until we see more of this trend, but he has certainly proved his explosiveness.

New York Jets DST

One interesting subplot in this game is to see who gets in the red zone the most and how do they convert. The Jets are fourth in the NFL with a 75% success rate in the red zone this year (touchdowns only), while the Patriots are 22nd at 37.5%.

The Patriots have not been efficient as a scoring offense. Combine that with the Jets who have the fourth-best sack percentage in the league (10.9%) and it could be a long night for New England with that pass rush.

Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups

Antonio Gibson (TE, NE)

As mentioned above, Rhamondre Stevenson has significantly stepped up in the passing game, which was presumably Antonio Gibson's role. Gibson hasn't played more than 23% of snaps this season and only has one target this year. Stevenson is the only back to play until that role changes.

Jacoby Brissett (QB, NE)

Jacoby Brissett is not being asked to throw the ball with any consistency and is not a startable quarterback. He is 23rd in pass attempts, 29th in passing yards, 28th in air yards, and 22nd in passing touchdowns. I want no part of any quarterback who is low-usage, inefficient, and facing the ferocious Jets' pass rush.

Jacoby Brissett is 4-for-11 for 19 yards when targeting people not named Hunter Henry

— Jon Benne (@LordBenne) September 15, 2024

Ja'Lynn Polk, Javon Baker, and Demario Douglas (WRs, NEP)

None of these wide receivers have played more than 60% of snaps, none of them have more than four total targets, and none have more than two catches and 12 yards. The Patriots are 28th in passing play percentage (42.3%), so these wide receivers should be far away from starting lineups.

Allen Lazard and Mike Williams (WRs, NYJ)

Predictably, Allen Lazard came crashing back to earth after some fortunate circumstances (and a backup quarterback) got him 89 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1. Even with Mike Williams increasing his snaps in Week 2, he only finished with one catch for 19 yards, barely better than Lazard's two catches for 11 yards.

For what it's worth, Lazard saw a huge dip in snaps and Williams had a big spike in Week 2, and that may continue if Rodgers needs a deep threat like Mike Williams.

Tyler Conklin (TE, NYJ)

Aaron Rodgers has historically been a fan of throwing to tight ends, but that hasn't been the case with Tyler Conklin. He has four total targets through two games, he has two catches, and just 16 yards. Conklin is not a usable tight end even in the deepest of leagues until the offense starts to feature him more.

Kirksey’s Thursday Night Football Picks

Current Spread: NYJ -6.5, Total: 38.5

With just a 38.5 implied total, prognosticators are not expecting a lot of points in this game. Only the Steelers-Chargers and Titans-Packers have a lower implied total on the Week 3 slate. With two elite defenses facing off against one another, both teams are going to try and play smash-mouth, running football with their star running backs, and try and control the clock.

If the running games battle to a standoff, the X-factor is going to be Aaron Rodgers to Garrett Wilson. The Patriots don't have anything that can compare to that combo and could see Wilson turn the game on its head if Rodgers and the Jets get into a tight struggle. In the end, I think they will pull ahead and beat the Patriots 27-17.

The Pick:
NYJ -6.5, Over 38.5

2024 Record:
Spread (2-0), Over/Under (1-1)

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