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Welcome RotoBallers to our betting picks for the Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots, another article in our weekly series of free NFL betting picks for every game on the schedule. This free NFL betting breakdown article is for Sunday, September 17th, 2023.
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Today's Betting Overview - Dolphins @ Patriots
The Dolphins take on the Patriots on Sunday, September 17th at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough. RotoBaller provides free handicapping picks and odds for all NFL games throughout the 2023 season.
- Matchup: Miami Dolphins (1-0) vs. New England Patriots (0-1)
- Date: Sunday, September 17th, 2023
- Time: 8:20 PM ET
- Venue: Gillette Stadium
Today's NFL Sportsbook Odds - Dolphins @ Patriots
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Miami Dolphins - NFL Betting Analysis
To begin the season, the Dolphins hit the road to take on the Chargers, resulting in a 36-34 win. Going into the game, the Dolphins were actually 3-point underdogs. This resulted in an ATS win for the Dolphins. Combining for 50 points with Los Angeles, the team's exceeded the over/under line of 50.
Facing the Chargers defense, Miami's offense amassed 536 yards in total. On third downs, the Dolphins converted at a 44.4%. Raheem Mostert led the rushing game with 37 yards, while Tua Tagovailoa threw for 466 yards. Tyreek Hill was the Dolphins' leader in receiving yards against the Chargers, finishing with 11 receptions for 215 and two touchdowns.
When it came to defense, the Dolphins yielded 433 yards of total offense to Los Angeles. Among these yards, 234 were attributed to the rushing game, while 199 yards were given up through 33 attempts by the Chargers' offense.
New England Patriots - NFL Betting Analysis
To open their season, the Patriots faced off against the Eagles at home. Unfortunately, they began with a 0-1 record following a 25-20 loss. With their -5 point loss, the Patriots also were handed a defeat on their ATS record. Going into the game, they were 3.5-point underdogs. The over hit in their most recent game, as the Eagles and Patriots combined for 45 points. The over/under line was 44.
In their matchup against the Eagles, the Patriots ran the ball 22 times, with Ezekiel Elliott emerging as the top rusher with 29 yards. In the passing game, Mac Jones finished with54 passes, resulting in 316 yards and a passer rating of 91. Versus the Eagles, Rhamondre Stevenson saw six targets and had six receptions for 64 yards.
Defensively, the Patriots' finished the game with three sacks and one interception. The team's secondary gave up 154 passing yards, while their rush defense allowed 97 rushing yards.
Today's NFL Betting Pick - Dolphins vs. Patriots
In the two head-to-head matchups last season, the Dolphins and Patriots each picked up one win apiece. Against the spread, the Dolphins went 2-0 while the over/under record in these games was 1-1 on an average of 35.5 points per game. In these head-to-head matchups, the Dolphins' offense averaged 320 yards per game compared to the Patriots at 260.
- Across their last three road contests, Miami has a 3-0 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 1-2, while averaging 29 points per game.
- In their last three games home from home, the Patriots have a straight up record of 1-2 while going 1-2 vs. the spread. The team averaged 24 points per game in this stretch.
- Going back to their previous ten games as the underdog, New England has an ATS mark of 2-8 while going 1-9 straight up.
- Through their last five games as the favorite, the Dolphins have an ATS record of 3-2 and a straight up mark of 3-2.
Recommended ATS Betting Pick: Dolphins -2
Recommended OU Betting Pick: Under 47
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