X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Stats & Leaders
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
24x7 News and Alerts

Navigating the Patriots Backfield During Fantasy Playoffs

For as long as I can remember there has always been a saying that Bill Belichick hates your fantasy team. Constantly changing the running back that is used means that some fantasy owners have tried to avoid it altogether, while some owners just put roll with the back du jour and hoped for the bets.

This season though that seems to have changed. The team has two great running backs in Sony Michel and James White, but it seems as though they are able to co-exist to some degree with Michel on early downs and White taking on his usual pass-catching role.

This article looks at each of their values for the rest of the season, and how the opportunities that they have been given have changed. Most importantly, we'll try to determine how to approach them in these crucial weeks for your fantasy team in the playoffs.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:

 

Snap Counts and Usage

The first thing to consider is that a player can only have an impact on the game if he is on the field. In the analysis below, the averages are determined including the games that Michel missed through injury. 

Looking at the snap counts (even excluding the games that Michel missed) it's clear that White is the back that is on the field the most. That isn't a huge surprise as Michel is a rookie and the Patriots have an extensive playbook you are expected to learn. But a snap count isn't the full story- White has previously been used in pass blocking, so him being on the field doesn't necessarily mean that he is being used on the plays that he is on the field for.

The above looks at the touches that players get (rushing attempts and receptions) and divide that by the number of snaps they are on the field. Looking at the above- a clear trend is identifiable. If Michel is on the field, then he is likely going to get the ball.

Verdict: Mixed here - White gets more snaps, but if Michel is on the field then he is likely to be getting the ball in his hands

 

Rushing Work & Production

The Patriots have always employed a number of players in their backfield, the two main running backs this season have been Michel and White, but they have also employed Rex Burkhead, Kenjon Barner, James Develin, and Jeremy Hill this season.

Michel is clearly the lead rusher in this offense, having more than double the number of carries as White this season- which is impressive especially having missed three games this season. In fact, Michel has double-digit carries in all but one game this season, whereas White only has two games where he had double-digit carries.

The backs are pretty level in their production in yards per attempt also, both averaging around 4.3 yards per carry this season. The real difference here is that Michel is able to be more consistent with his runs, only dipping below 3.0 YPC once this season in games that he has played. White, on the other hand, has fallen below that same threshold four times this season- including a game where he had negative YPC (coincidentally the same game Michel was below 3.0 YPC)

Verdict: Michel is the better rushing back, with more attempts and more consistent yards per carry than White

 

Receiving Work

It is the receiving work that White gets that makes him a valuable fantasy commodity. Michel only has seven receptions so far this season, whereas White has surpassed that mark in several games this season. So it's clear that White is the only back to own when considering this facet of the game.

The question is actually just how valuable is this part of White's game- is he a receiver who plays running back, or a running back who catches passes?

Surprisingly, White has caught more passes than anyone else on the Patriots team this season with over 25% of the team's targets this season. While this season had issues for the team with Julian Edelman suspended at the start of the year, to combine with the inconsistency of elite tight end Rob Gronkowski, White clearly is a huge part of the offense.

Looking at combined receiving and rushing yards shows a different picture

White's usage means that what he lacks to Michel in the rushing game, he makes up in the receiving work that he is given. That element of the game allows White to be one of the lead backs for fantasy purposes.

Verdict: White is an integral part of the offense, and the Patriots leading receiver. Michel is rarely used in this part of the game. White as a result is a great fantasy asset- especially in PPR formats.

 

Fantasy Points

As a result of being highly involved in the passing game, White would have a much higher value in PPR formats. So looking at the value of both backs based on standard scoring (and additionally in PPR):

The above demonstrates that White's receiving work combined with his rushing allows him to outperform Michel in terms of fantasy output. Having both parts to his game means that he can't be scripted out of a game, but with Michel not being used in that aspect of the game means that he can.

Ultimately it seems as though it comes down to game flow and what the Patriots need at any point in the game. If they need to move the chains and get a first down on a run then they pull in Michel. If they need to chase the game, then they use White.

Verdict: White is a more consistent scorer that Michel, owing in large part to his receiving work.

 

Week 15-16 Outlook

The next two weeks are interesting from the perspective of which player is suited to which game. The Steelers this week are a tough matchup, giving up an average of 16.5 points per game to the position. While the Patriots are the favored team with bookmakers at the moment this won't be an easy matchup with Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and company able to put up points quickly if they need to.

However, the Steelers could stop Michel in his tracks this week and that means that the Patriots have to use White coming out of the backfield to limit the pressure on quarterback Tom Brady. Equally, there is a script whereby the Patriots are able to score early and look to Michel to kill the clock and limit the chance of the Steelers offense bringing the team to a victory.

Week 15 Verdict: Against the Steelers, I think the flow would mean that White should have the better game, but it is likely going to be a game that both backs eat into each other's production.

Then the Patriots follow that up with a matchup against the Buffalo Bills, who give up 21.4 points on average to the position. The Bills have been more improved recently, with quarterback Josh Allen looking more settled recently. That shouldn't really have too much of an impact on this game though, as the Patriots will likely be looking to win out and should have enough talent to do so.

This game feels to me like a script for Michel to kill the clock to limit the exposure of the Patriots' offensive talent picking up an injury.

Verdict: Against the Bills, the game flow should be such that the Patriots are leading and looking to kill the clock- meaning that Michel should see a lot of carries.

 

Conclusion

Ultimately, the Patriots backfield is great for fantasy production, as they are a team that can score points. Michel is more reliant upon his rushing production for fantasy points, whereas White is essentially a receiver who rushes, giving him a better floor but also a high ceiling.

The game flow for the next two weeks looks to be split right down the middle with one week likely to suit each of them better.

That being said, the likely production for the team means that they should each be considered as a fringe RB1/strong RB2 in both weeks similar to running backs like Chris Carson, Lamar Miller and Aaron Jones- able to give you production, but not someone you count on to lead your team to victory single-handedly.

More Start/Sit Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Stats & Leaders
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Darcy Kuemper19 mins ago

Continues Point Streak With A Shutout
8 hours ago

Cade Otton Leads Tampa In Receiving In Week 9 Loss On Monday
9 hours ago

Pete Alonso Receives Qualifying Offer From Mets
9 hours ago

Clayton Kershaw Declines 2025 Option
9 hours ago

Titans Hopeful Will Levis Will Return In Week 10
10 hours ago

Titans Looking To Reduce Tony Pollard's Workload?
Dallas Cowboys11 hours ago

Micah Parsons Expected To Play In Week 10
Dereck Lively II11 hours ago

A Late Scratch On Monday
11 hours ago

Amari Cooper Listed As Day-To-Day
12 hours ago

Joe Flacco Named Week 10 Starter
Robert Williams III12 hours ago

Returning On Monday
Jordan Hawkins12 hours ago

Out Versus The Blazers
Zion Williamson12 hours ago

Sidelined Again Versus Portland
Rudy Gobert12 hours ago

Available For Minnesota On Monday
Immanuel Quickley12 hours ago

Still Out On Monday
Jalen Smith12 hours ago

Available Against Jazz
Brandon Miller12 hours ago

Will Play Versus Minnesota
Josh Giddey13 hours ago

Suiting Up Monday
Lauri Markkanen13 hours ago

Sidelined Again On Monday Night
13 hours ago

Browns "Highly Unlikely" To Trade David Njoku
John Konchar13 hours ago

Ruled Out Monday Versus Nets
13 hours ago

Chase Brown Appears To Be OK Despite Suffering Bruised Rib
13 hours ago

Tee Higgins Estimated As DNP On Monday
13 hours ago

Jameson Williams' Suspension Is Lifted
13 hours ago

Alex Bregman Given Qualifying Offer
13 hours ago

Saquon Barkley Will Be Ready For Week 10 Despite Back Soreness
13 hours ago

Juan Soto Receives Qualifying Offer
Anthony Davis13 hours ago

Available Monday Versus Detroit
14 hours ago

A.J. Brown Considered "Day-To-Day"
Austin Reaves14 hours ago

Suiting Up Monday
14 hours ago

Tyler O'Neill Not Given Qualifying Offer, Headed To Free Agency
Ryan Blaney14 hours ago

Wins At Martinsville And Has Chance To Earn Second Straight Championship
14 hours ago

Bucky Irving Officially Active Against Chiefs
Christopher Bell14 hours ago

Penalized At Martinsville, Removed From Championship Four
D'Angelo Russell14 hours ago

Available Monday
14 hours ago

Nick Pivetta Receives Qualifying Offer
14 hours ago

Colin Rea Heading To Free Agency
14 hours ago

Tigers Decline Casey Mize's 2025 Club Option
14 hours ago

Drake London Considered Day-To-Day
Dean Wade14 hours ago

Won’t Play Against The Bucks
Caris LeVert14 hours ago

Remains Out Versus Milwaukee
Noah Clowney14 hours ago

Won’t Suit Up Versus Memphis
Ben Simmons15 hours ago

Out Against The Grizzlies
Kevin Huerter15 hours ago

Still Out On Monday Night
Jake Allen15 hours ago

Faces Oilers On Monday
Stephen Curry15 hours ago

Back For Monday’s Game
BOS15 hours ago

Tyler Johnson Signs One-Year Deal With Bruins
Giannis Antetokounmpo15 hours ago

Won’t Face The Cavs
Zach Benson15 hours ago

Considered "A Possibility" For Tuesday's Game
Artem Zub15 hours ago

Logs Full Practice On Monday
Bryan Rust15 hours ago

Will Join Penguins Road Trip
16 hours ago

Braves Exercise Marcell Ozuna's 2025 Option
Juraj Slafkovsky16 hours ago

Practices On Monday
Macklin Celebrini16 hours ago

Ready To Return On Tuesday
16 hours ago

David Fry To Miss 6-8 Months After Having Elbow Surgery
16 hours ago

Gerrit Cole, Yankees Agree To Stick Together
Samuel Ersson17 hours ago

Misses Monday Practice
Carolina Panthers17 hours ago

Panthers Haven't Decided Starting QB For Week 10
Connor McDavid17 hours ago

Ahead Of Schedule In Recovery
17 hours ago

Panthers Optimistic Jonathon Brooks Will Debut In Week 10
Philip Broberg17 hours ago

Will Miss Several Weeks With Lower-Body Injury
18 hours ago

Derek Carr To Start In Week 10 For Saints
Valeri Nichushkin18 hours ago

Will Return When First Eligible
18 hours ago

Texans Non-Committal On Nico Collins For Week 10
18 hours ago

Erick All Jr. Officially Out For The Year With Knee Injury
18 hours ago

Mike Macdonald "Optimistic" DK Metcalf Returns In Week 11
18 hours ago

CeeDee Lamb Tagged As Week-To-Week, Optimism He Can Play In Week 10
Tyler Reddick18 hours ago

Not A Factor At Martinsville And Looks Ahead To Phoenix
Kyle Larson18 hours ago

Misses Advancing Through Playoffs Despite Top-Three Finish
Brad Keselowski18 hours ago

Has A Solid Top-10 Performance At Martinsville
Chase Elliott18 hours ago

Loses Out On Winning At Martinsville
20 hours ago

Nathan Eovaldi Declines His Player Option
20 hours ago

Brewers Decline Option On Devin Williams
20 hours ago

Michael Wacha, Royals Agree To Three-Year Deal
20 hours ago

Braves Sign Reynaldo Lopez To Three-Year Deal
Rose Namajunas23 hours ago

Drops Decision Matchup
Erin Blanchfield23 hours ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Dustin Stoltzfus24 hours ago

Gets First-Round Knockout At UFC Edmonton
Zach Hyman24 hours ago

Records Two Points In Battle Of Alberta Win
Marc-Andre Barriault1 day ago

Knocked Out At UFC Edmonton
Matt Boldy1 day ago

Hits Overtime Winner Versus Toronto
Jared Spurgeon1 day ago

Delivers Two Assists In Sunday's Win
Trevin Giles1 day ago

Losses Third Fight In A Row
Alex Ovechkin1 day ago

Extends Goal Streak To Four Games
Dmitry Orlov1 day ago

Nets Two Goals Against Capitals
Jeremy Swayman1 day ago

Collects First Shutout Of The Season
Connor Bedard1 day ago

Records Three Assists In Sunday's Win
Mike Malott1 day ago

Wins Decision At UFC Edmonton
NASCAR1 day ago

Speeding Penalty Foils Martin Truex Jr.'s Last Realistic Shot At Winning
Denny Hamlin1 day ago

Fails To Advance To Championship 4 But Runs Well
Shane Van Gisbergen1 day ago

Shane van Gisbergen Earns Best Oval Finish at Martinsville
William Byron1 day ago

Tentatively In Championship 4 Pending Ruling On Manufacturer Orders
MMA2 days ago

Ariane Lipski Submitted At UFC Edmonton
Jasmine Jasudavicius2 days ago

Gets Submission Win At UFC Edmonton
Caio Machado2 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
Brendson Ribeiro2 days ago

Edges Out Split Decision At UFC Edmonton
Amir Albazi2 days ago

Falls Short At UFC Edmonton
Brandon Moreno2 days ago

Dominates At UFC Edmonton
Artturi Lehkonen2 days ago

Activated From Injured Reserve
NJ2 days ago

Nathan Bastian To Miss "Several Weeks"
2 days ago

Austin Barnes Returning To Los Angeles
2 days ago

David Robertson To Test Free Agency
2 days ago

Giants Exercise Club Option On Wilmer Flores
2 days ago

Owen Miller Shipped To Colorado
2 days ago

Merrill Kelly Staying In Arizona
2 days ago

Eloy Jimenez Headed To Free Agency
Daniel Suarez2 days ago

Will Start 20th At Martinsville
Zane Smith2 days ago

Might Be An Underrated Value Play For Martinsville
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Is A Top DFS Recommendation For Martinsville Lineups
Joey Logano2 days ago

Will Be One To Watch At Martinsville
Brad Keselowski2 days ago

Should DFS Players Rely On Brad Keselowski For Martinsville Lineups?
Carson Hocevar2 days ago

Is A Great DFS Option For All Martinsville DFS Lineups
Ty Gibbs2 days ago

Is Ty Gibbs Worth Rostering At Martinsville This Week For DFS?
Austin Cindric2 days ago

Could Have A Top-20 Performance At Martinsville
William Byron2 days ago

Might Be Usable Only In DFS Tournaments At Martinsville
Chris Buescher2 days ago

Should DFS Players Roster Chris Buescher At Martinsville?
Alex Bowman2 days ago

Expect A Solid Top-10 Performance From Alex Bowman At Martinsville
Rose Namajunas4 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Edmonton
Erin Blanchfield4 days ago

Returns At UFC Edmonton
Marc-Andre Barriault4 days ago

Dustin Stoltzfus Set To Face Marc-Andre Barriault At UFC Edmonton
Marc-Andre Barriault4 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Edmonton
Trevin Giles4 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Mike Malott4 days ago

Opens Up UFC Edmonton Main Card
Brendson Ribeiro5 days ago

Searching For 1st UFC Win At UFC Edmonton
Caio Machado5 days ago

Drops Down To Light Heavyweight At UFC Edmonton
Jhonata Diniz5 days ago

Gets Big Step-Up At UFC Edmonton

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Mike Gesicki - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

FAAB Waiver Wire Bidding - Fantasy Football Pickups to Target for Week 10 (2024)

We've now battled through nine weeks of fantasy football and most of you know whether you're cruising for the playoffs, battling hard for each week, or needing a win every week! Regardless of your needs, joining our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on […]


Los Angeles Chargers Defense D/ST Streamers, Rankings, Waiver Wire - Khalil Mack Fantasy Football IDP

Week 10 Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2024 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to our Week 10 fantasy football defense streamers and D/ST rankings for the 2024 fantasy football season. Every week, I'll go through the best and worst fantasy defenses. With four teams on bye (Browns, Raiders, Packers, and Seahawks) this week, I will be ranking fantasy defenses from No. 1 to No. 28.  It is unfortunate […]


Titans Defense D/ST Streamers, Rankings, Waiver Wire - Harold Landry Fantasy Football IDP

IDP Waiver Wire Pickups and Streamers for Week 10 (2024)

We’ve got a big IDP waiver wire column for Week 10. I have highlighted 21 players at linebacker, defensive lineman, and defensive back who will fill holes on your team over the second half of the season and carry you into the playoffs. It’s getting close. There are just four weeks until the playoffs begin […]


Sam Darnold - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

NFL DFS: First Look of Week 10 - Totals, Salaries, Slates, and more

The NFL season is chugging along and we have more action headed our way this Sunday. We're going ahead of the pack by diving into the data and see what direction it will point us in this week. This piece is intended to be a one-stop shop for readers to begin their DFS research for […]


Tyler Allgeier - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Week 10 Waiver Wire Rankings - Fantasy Football Pickups Include Quentin Johnston, Jalen Tolbert, Ricky Pearsall, Ray Davis, Tyler Allgeier, Mike Gesicki

Week 10 will be here in a few days, and it's time to start bolstering those rosters for the fantasy football playoff push. At RotoBaller HQ, we are back with more waiver wire advice to help build those fantasy rosters with our Week 10 fantasy football waiver wire rankings for 2024. There were more crucial […]


Cole Kmet - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL injury News

The Cut List - Who to Drop for Fantasy Football Week 10

Each new week of NFL games gives us more information to make better, more informed decisions. That’s crucial when figuring out who to add and who to cut. It can be difficult to admit we were wrong on a particular player. For example, using a high draft pick on someone and cutting them so early […]


Saquon Barkley - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Backfield Breakdowns and Target Shares - Fantasy Football Week 10 Outlooks for Lamar Jackson, Saquon Barkley, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and More

It's hard to believe that we are at the halfway point of the 2024 NFL season and already over halfway through the fantasy football season. With only the Steelers and 49ers on a bye, setting lineups was a bit easier, and man, did we get some action! We had a few regular household names crushing […]


D'Andre Swift - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injuries

RB Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Picks for Week 10 (2024)

So far this season has been the return of the running back in fantasy football. With that, we are sending Tyrone Tracy Jr., Chuba Hubbard, and Jonathon Brooks to Germany to give our German friends something worth watching if we are going to force them to watch the Giants, Panthers, and Machine Gun Kelly. With […]


Evan McPherson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Kicker Streamers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Week 10 Kicker Streamers and Starts - 2024 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

It might be that point in the season where you are searching for a better kicker option than the one you have been rolling with. You may need coverage for a bye week. Lucky for you, there is a top kicker available on waivers who is currently ranked K2 in fantasy football, making him a […]


Chris Olave - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Injuries to Watch for Week 10 Lineups - Christian McCaffrey, Dak Prescott, Chris Olave, A.J Brown, more

Just like that, we have arrived at the NFL trade deadline day. Week 9 didn't have many serious injuries, though it was slightly less exciting than the previous week. Still, it featured three games that went to overtime and was a fun week all things considered. Unfortunately, as is the case in every week of […]


Nico Collins - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

WR Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Picks for Week 10 (2024)

One of my favourite filmmakers of all time is the great Mel Brooks. His films have been a staple in my life. You’ll never see him win an Oscar, but his films are usually a result of a comedy of errors that you simply can’t help but laugh at. His next film should be titled […]


Ray Davis - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Deeper-League Waiver Wire Adds for Week 10: Tyler Allgeier, Ray Davis, Ricky Pearsall, Xavier Legette, Quentin Johnston, Mike Gesicki, Drake Maye, Bo Nix

Most people searching for the top fantasy football waiver wire options in deep leagues already know the choices are slim by this point in the season. That said, whether you are leading your league's standings, right in the middle, or need to win out to make the playoffs, you should always be looking to improve […]


T.J. Hockenson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

TE Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Picks for Week 10 (2024)

There were a couple of prolific tight ends last week, as Mike Gesicki had a pair of touchdowns, 100 yards receiving, and 27 fantasy points. Taysom Hill, Theo Johnson, Ja'Tavion Sanders, Nick Vannett, and Drew Sample also recorded double-digit fantasy production in Week 9. Even Chris Manhertz and Quintin Morris ended up with touchdown grabs. We […]