Patrick Sandoval (SP, LAA) - 2023 Fantasy Baseball Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 200

CURRENT ADP: ~215 overall

ANALYSIS: Although Sandoval's strikeout rate dropped from his 25.9% rate in 2021, his whiff rate remained in the 76th percentile (29.5%), and he managed a career-high 31.8% chase rate. He’s always had trouble with command, but he likely won’t do worse than his 9.4% mark due to his increased chases and a first-pitch strike percentage that improved for the second consecutive season. Sandoval's arsenal has been good throughout his time in the big leagues, but he finally perfected his pitch usage. His fastball, which has never owned a whiff% over 17.6% and posted a .558 xSLG in 2021, declined by 1.6% in usage, while his sinker, which is hardly a swing-and-miss pitch and managed a .454 xSLG last season, decreased by 4.5%. Sandoval kept throwing his changeup, which owned a 44.5% whiff rate, using it 24.6% of the time. And his best pitch, the slider, went from being thrown at a 17.2% clip two years ago to his most used offering at 29%.

The lefty's ERA is likely to see a rise. Although Sandoval's 3.09 FIP is impressive, his 3.76 xFIP is less so after he allowed a very minuscule 6.3% HR/FB while pitching home games in a great home run park. However, his WHIP should be similar, especially with better strikeout and walk rates to come. An ERA and WHIP of around 3.60 and 1.30, respectively, is acceptable. We need to assume Sandoval will provide more volume in 2023. The native of California threw a professional-high 148.2 innings last year, but with a healthy season, he’ll start more than 27 games. The Angels also look better on paper (yes, we say this every year), and even if they don't improve their 73-win total, six wins from a solid arm is hard to sustain.

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