RADIO
2023 marked the second time since 2017 that no offense averaged more than 29 points per game in the NFL. Scoring was down again for a second consecutive season league-wide, and no offense was safe from the regression -- not even Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Widely considered a consensus top-three fantasy quarterback heading into last season, you were disappointed if you used up an early draft pick to select him. Uncharacteristically, Mahomes and the Chiefs were right at the league average -- 21.8 points per game.
Conversely, Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens were part of a small list of four teams that scored more than 28 points per game (28.4). Jackson's performance on the year was good enough to secure him his second NFL MVP award in five years, but if you had him in fantasy, it was a roller coaster of a year. He finished as the QB4, while seven of his 16 appearances resulted in less than 20 fantasy points -- truly encompassing a boom-bust option at the position.
Fast forward to 2024 -- Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson sit back-to-back in ADP (#37 and #38 overall) and present a legitimate decision for fantasy managers to consider early on in drafts. Regarding who we should select, the answer is not so cut-and-dry.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024 fantasy football drafts:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Fantasy football rookie rankings
- Best ball fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
Which QB Should Be Selected?
A case can be made for both quarterbacks as solid options for your squad -- dependent on format and even your roster construction early in drafts. In a vacuum, Jackson is the preferred option due to his rushing upside, but it also leaves him more vulnerable to injury. With that said -- Jackson does his best to stay out of harm's way, regularly sliding or slipping out of bounds to avoid a big hit. While it might be a riskier proposition drafting him, Jackson is the kind of player that can win you a week and then some. His rushing output will continue to keep him in the conversation of top-three at his position while it is still a part of his game.
Your weekly Lamar Jackson rushing highlight:pic.twitter.com/EhlrFW1zlG
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) November 17, 2019
In six-point per passing touchdown leagues, Mahomes might be the preferred selection and actually presents as a safer floor play to anchor a team that may have started their draft off a little riskier. For instance, if you're selecting at the 1/2 turn and you decide to snag Puka Nacua and Jahmyr Gibbs with your first two picks, that team may benefit from the steady output of Mahomes to account for the potential fluctuation of points at other positions. After a 'down' year, Mahomes' price is a bit more respectable than his 2023 cost, too -- where we regularly saw him drafted in the second round (14.6 overall).
Despite it not showing up in his production, Mahomes had a fine year when we dive deeper into his metrics. The volume is still there for him, and as per PlayerProfiler, he ranked first in 'True Completion Percentage' and fourth in 'Accuracy Rating' against both man and zone coverage. Mahomes looks to bounce back in 2024 as the Chiefs made it a point to add to a wide receiver corps severely lacking last season (Marquise Brown / Xavier Worthy).
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