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Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson is set up to produce the best fantasy football season of his career in the pass-happy Minnesota offense. What will it take for him to achieve overall TE1 status in 2023?
Two years before the Atlanta Falcons made headlines by selecting a certain tight end number four overall in the 2021 draft, the Detroit Lions made a similarly bold move when they selected T.J. Hockenson out of Iowa at number eight overall.
Fast forward four seasons and Hockenson is now a member of the Minnesota Vikings after a mid-season trade in 2022. That move helped propel him to his best fantasy football season ever and begs the question, can Hockenson be the best tight end in football in 2023?
He certainly believes so and has recently been linked to rumors that he is looking for a "historic" extension for the tight end position as he is playing on the last year of his rookie deal.
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T.J. Hockenson Training Camp Storylines
Hockenson has been dealing with mysterious ailments throughout training camp such as an ear infection and now back soreness. Some people believe it is a thinly veiled attempt to stay completely healthy until Minnesota decides to pay him long-term. Whether or not there is any truth to that is not for us to speculate, but what is indisputable is that Hockenson continues to get better each year.
During his rookie season in 2019, he played in just 12 games where he hauled in 32 of 59 targets for 367 yards and a couple of scores. That's not horrific, but also not worthy of a top-10 overall pick. In 2020, he made the leap with 101 targets, 67 receptions, 723 yards, and six scores. In 2021, Hockenson was injured for five games, but his prorated numbers for a full season were 119 targets, 86 catches, 826 yards, and six touchdowns.
Last year, Hockenson became a full-blown star. His 129 targets, 915 yards, and six spikes fueled a TE2 finish. He became known for big plays across the field and solidified himself as a no-doubt fantasy starter. The question in front of him now is, can it get even better?
What Does it Take to Finish as TE1 in Fantasy Football?
T.J. Hockenson admittedly has a Travis Kelce-sized mountain in his path to reach the TE1 pinnacle. Kelce has finished TE1 or TE2 every season since 2016. The only times he missed out on TE1 status were 2021 and 2017 when he sat out games at the end of the season. The best thing we can say here in Hockenson's favor is that Kelce has been a top-10 tight end every year since 2014. That clearly means Kelce is much closer to the end of his career than the beginning. He turns 34 in October. A bet on Hockenson to overtake Kelce is a bet that age or injury deflates Kelce's performance, which is asking a lot.
Even if Hockenson scales Kelce Mountain, he still has to contend with Mark Andrews as well. Andrews has been a top-five tight end every year since 2019 and was the TE1 overall in 2021. With the Baltimore Ravens emphasizing a more pass-heavy attack under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, Andrews could reach new heights as the primary weapon for Lamar Jackson.
Andrews turns 28 in less than a month while Hockenson just turned 26. These are high bars to have to cross for Hockenson to become the top tight end of 2023. But we do have 2022 as a starting point for this race, and it's closer than you might think.
Hockenson was the TE2 in overall half-PPR points in 2022, besting Andrews, George Kittle, and even surprising TE Evan Engram. Hockenson had some luck by playing every game last season, but he did overcome scores of 1.1 in Week 5 and 2.1 in Week 18 to claim the silver medal.
The overall TE1 in half-PPR has averaged 235 fantasy points over the last six seasons. Over 18 games, 235 points is just 13.1 points per game. Hockenson has crossed that number just nine times over the last three seasons, but he also showed his propensity for spike weeks with fantasy games of 35.9 and 29.4 last season.
Does T.J. Hockenson Have the Skill Set to Get There?
With an overall TE2 finish already under his belt (where half his season was played with Jared Goff), we know Hockenson has talent and playmaking ability. How does he compare to his peers when we look under the hood of his skill set? On the surface, all of the puzzle pieces fell into place for Hockenson last year.
He ran the second-most routes and had the second-most targets among all tight ends. He had the third-most air yards and the third-most red zone targets. Hockenson was fourth in both target accuracy and yards after the catch.
All those data points aligned to an elite season for Hockenson. But the fact is it could have been even better. Below, courtesy of Player Profiler, is a list of the tight ends from 2022 with the most Unrealized Air Yards. This is the list of players who saw the longest passes thrown at them the most but were unable to convert them into catches.
Hockenson sits third overall in unrealized air yards with 478, but he is just ninth in team share of air yards at 17.7%. Despite seeing less than 18% of his team's air yards last year, only Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts can say there was more left on the field they could have hauled in.
And both of those players saw more than 31% of their team's air yards. With a full season on the Vikings and the subtraction of one key player from 2022, Hockenson could just find himself in a situation that can sustain him as a top-two option at the position all season.
How T.J. Hockenson's Situation Should Aid Him
Returning with the Vikings this year instead of starting another year with the Lions is the best thing that could happen for Hockenson's fantasy prospects. While the Detroit Lions were 26th in the league in targets thrown to tight ends, the Vikings were third behind only Baltimore and Kansas City.
In addition, the Vikings were third in the league in pass-play percentage last season while the Lions finished 19th. Yes, Hockenson still has all-world receiver Justin Jefferson and rising rookie Jordan Addison to deal with. But one player that has been removed might be the under-discussed factor that boosts Hockenson to TE1 overall.
Last season, Irv Smith Jr. drew 36 targets before the injury that propelled the Hockenson trade. Smith has now moved on to another team. The only real tight end competition on the roster is fourth-year tight end Josh Oliver, who has 26 career receptions. Hockenson should pass the 84% snap share he saw in 2022 just due to a lack of other reasonable options.
The Vikings are likely to deploy a lot of three WR sets with Hockenson as the only tight end. K.J. Osborn should be the WR3 on this team, but Hockenson quickly passed him in usage once he came over to the team in the middle of last year. To begin the season, it's clear Hockenson is going to be the number two receiving option on this team. Time will tell if Addison is able to pass him.
What we can definitively say now, however, is that T.J. Hockenson is set up with the right combination of skills, situation, and opportunity to be the best tight end option in the game. It will take a lot to dethrone Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews, but there is no player better suited for it than Hockenson.
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