X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Park Factors: Using Sabermetrics For 2024 Fantasy Baseball

charlie blackmon fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers outfield MLB DFS lineup picks

If you have ever selected a streamable pitcher based on a home park or benched an otherwise must-start arm at Coors Field, you already know how much a stadium can impact a player's bottom line.

Ballpark factors quantify the influence each stadium has, allowing you to make the most of your fantasy team's real-life schedule. However, the math involved is approximate, and random fluctuations in weather patterns and sheer dumb luck can make the same parks play very differently from year to year.

Today, we continue our journey through baseball sabermetrics with a look at how each team's home stadium can play a factor in the fantasy baseball world.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball draft tools and resources:

 

How to Interpret Ballpark Factors

Ballpark factors are generally set to a base of 100 (or 1.000, which doesn't change anything), meaning that a park factor of 100 plays perfectly neutral. Factors greater than 100 signify that a given park sees more of that outcome, while numbers below 100 represent less of those outcomes.

There are multiple sources of ballpark factors, including Baseball Savant (aka Statcast), FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and ESPN. Each calculates its numbers a little bit differently, but they all use the base-100 scale listed above. There is no "correct" factor to use, as each system has its own merits. Just make sure you stick to a single source for any analysis to control for the variance.

The source you choose also dictates how much each point above or below 100 is "worth." A player only plays 50% of his games at home, with the rest of his schedule comprised of road games. Some sources such as Fangraphs halve all of their factors to accommodate this, making each point above or below 100 represent a one percent increase or decrease over a full season of stats. Other sources leave that to you.

If that's too confusing, it's fine to forget it. The only thing you need to know is that a park factor of 110 is considerably higher than a 105 mark. It's also important to note that ballpark factors aren't everything. If a particular park has a runs factor of 99, that isn't a strong enough argument to stream a pitcher there absent other compelling reasons.

 

Long Ball Hunting

When most fantasy managers think of ballpark factors, they think of home runs. A park allowing plenty of bombs is viewed as a hitter's park, while parks allowing fewer dingers are more pitcher-friendly. In truth, this approach is too simplistic even if you only care about home runs.

The home of the Cincinnati Reds is known as a home run haven for good reason. From 2021-2023, the stadium had a Statcast HR factor of 131. This means that the stadium helps all power hitters. In contrast, Toronto's Rogers Centre is known for inflating power. However, only right-handed hitters see a power surge with a HR factor of 111 from 2021-2023. Lefties have to contend with an 89 HR factor, meaning the park suppresses left-handed power.

While most fantasy managers are familiar with certain ballparks allowing more or fewer homers than others, BABIP is an underappreciated component of ballpark factors. Altitude, infield conditions, foul territory, the batter's eye, and the size of the stadium can all influence how a ballpark plays beyond just home runs.

 

Coors Canaveral

For example, the Colorado Rockies managed a .331 BABIP at home in 2023 against a road BABIP of .298. The Rockies have a similar split in every year of their existence, so that performance was no fluke. Players tend to perform a little better at home, but Colorado's splits seem indicative of more than that.

Indeed, look at Colorado's park factors for each hit type from 2021-2023:

Coors is a gigantic ballpark, offering plenty of real estate for balls to find grass. Breaking balls behave differently due to the elevation of Denver, removing some pitching weapons. Fatigue may set in faster for the same reason. The introduction of the humidor has decreased the ballpark's HR rates compared to what it was, but it still consistently posts the highest BABIPs in baseball.

For this reason, fantasy gamers should generally be skeptical of Colorado hurlers. Colorado is the most extreme example, but every stadium has some quirk that makes it unique. Fenway's Green Monster, the Trop's artificial surface, and the miles of foul territory in Oakland all affect fantasy stats.

That said, sometimes ballpark factors can lie. 81 games are a relatively small sample size, so a park could play dramatically differently in a given season than it has in the past or should be expected to moving forward. Many ballpark factors come in three-season or five-season variants to attempt to filter out some of this noise, but it's still something to consider in your analysis.

Of course, ballpark changes overwhelm these considerations. The Orioles pushed the fences back at Camden Yards before the 2022 season. From 2021-2023, the park had a HR factor of 104. However, that number is inflated by 2021's HR factor of 139. Last season, Camden Yards had a HR factor of 91. We should believe the more recent number in this case since we know the dimensions at Camden changed.

 

Conclusion

Ballpark factors quantify how much influence a player's environment has on his final totals. A 100 factor is league-average, with numbers above or below that indicative of more or less whatever it is a factor for. Most fantasy managers think of homers when considering park factors, but singles, line drives, and even strikeouts have park factors as well. Platoon splits can also dictate where a given player is most likely to succeed. Stay tuned to learn more about how advanced stats can help you dominate your leagues in 2024.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!






POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Davis Thompson2 hours ago

Treading Water Heading Into Pebble Beach
Domantas Sabonis2 hours ago

Notches Second Consecutive Triple-Double
Nick Taylor2 hours ago

Trending Way Up For Pebble Beach
Amen Thompson2 hours ago

Wraps Up Big Night Against Celtics With Game-Winner
Nikola Jokic2 hours ago

Bags 21st Triple-Double Of The Season
Justin Rose2 hours ago

Cannot Be Counted Out At Pebble Beach
Matisse Thybulle2 hours ago

Remains Out For Trail Blazers
Taylor Moore2 hours ago

Attempts To Put Torrey Pines Behind Him
Coby White3 hours ago

Unlikely To Play On Wednesday
Shane Lowry3 hours ago

Tries To Rebound After Torrey Pines
Zach LaVine3 hours ago

To Miss "A Few Games"
Alexandre Sarr3 hours ago

Injures Ankle Monday
PGA3 hours ago

Sungjae Im Can Contend Again At Pebble Beach
Ben Griffin3 hours ago

A Bit Of An Unknown For Pebble Beach
Josiah Gray3 hours ago

Begins Throwing Program, Targeting Late-Season Return
Matt Fitzpatrick3 hours ago

An Intriguing Option For Pebble Beach
Nick Dunlap4 hours ago

Playing OK Heading To Pebble Beach
Yaroslav Askarov4 hours ago

Stands Tall Against Pittsburgh
Connor McDavid4 hours ago

Scores In Return On Monday
Wyndham Clark4 hours ago

Primed To Defend His Pebble Beach Title
Conor Garland4 hours ago

Strikes Twice In Victory
Samuel Ersson4 hours ago

Sharp In Victory Over New Jersey
Akshay Bhatia4 hours ago

Ready For Pebble Beach This Week
Scott Laughton4 hours ago

Busy In Return
Lucas Raymond4 hours ago

Leads The Way On Monday
Sepp Straka13 hours ago

Attempts Back-To-Back Tour Victories At Pebble Beach
Maverick McNealy13 hours ago

Gets Homecoming At Pebble Beach
Min Woo Lee13 hours ago

In Solid Form Ahead Of Pebble Beach
Viktor Hovland13 hours ago

A Risky Option At Pebble Beach
Max Greyserman13 hours ago

A Golfer To Watch At Pebble Beach
Harris English13 hours ago

Riding High Ahead Of Pebble Beach
Corey Conners13 hours ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Pebble Beach
Keegan Bradley13 hours ago

Looks To Stay Hot At Pebble Beach
Noah Clowney14 hours ago

Won't Return On Monday
Cameron Young14 hours ago

Returns To ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Jordan Spieth14 hours ago

Set For First 2025 Appearance
Cameron Johnson14 hours ago

To Be Re-Evaluated In One Week
Deandre Ayton15 hours ago

Iffy For Tuesday's Action
Cam Thomas15 hours ago

To Undergo Testing On Wednesday
Jonathan Kuminga15 hours ago

To Be Re-Evaluated In Two Weeks
Trendon Watford15 hours ago

Nearing Return To The Court
Draymond Green15 hours ago

Considered Day-To-Day, Will Remain Sidelined Tuesday
AJ Green15 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Monday
Kawhi Leonard15 hours ago

To See Increased Playing Time
Guerschon Yabusele15 hours ago

Labeled As Probable For Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo15 hours ago

Active For Monday's Game
Andre Drummond15 hours ago

Unavailable Tuesday
Khris Middleton15 hours ago

Cleared For Monday
LaMelo Ball15 hours ago

Suffers Ankle Injury Against Lakers
Russell Wilson16 hours ago

Steelers Unlikely To Re-Sign Both Russell Wilson, Justin Fields
Josh Allen16 hours ago

Picks Up Wrist Injury In AFC Championship Loss
Sean Couturier18 hours ago

Unavailable Monday Due To An Illness
Emil Lilleberg18 hours ago

Suspended For Two Games
Vladimir Tarasenko18 hours ago

A Game-Time Decision Monday
J.T. Compher18 hours ago

Will Not Play On Monday
Nico Hischier18 hours ago

Out On Monday
Bryan Rust18 hours ago

A Game-Time Call Monday
Evgeni Malkin18 hours ago

Labeled As Week-To-Week
A.J. Brown1 day ago

Finds The End Zone In Strong Outing
Saquon Barkley1 day ago

Posts Three-Touchdown Performance
Jalen Hurts1 day ago

Leads Explosive Offense To Super Bowl Berth
Ben Joyce1 day ago

Expected To Open Season In Closer Role
Adin Hill1 day ago

Snaps Skid On Sunday Evening
Matt Boldy1 day ago

Tallies Three Helpers In Victory
Gabriel Vilardi1 day ago

Tallies Four Points On Sunday
Leevi Merilainen1 day ago

Sharp In Sunday's Victory
Artemi Panarin1 day ago

Tallies Two Points In Sunday's Loss
Cale Makar1 day ago

Scores Twice On Sunday
James Cook1 day ago

Scores Two Touchdowns In Loss To Chiefs
Xavier Worthy2 days ago

Leads Receivers In AFC Championship Win
Chicago Bears2 days ago

Bears Hire Dennis Allen, Declan Doyle For Coordinator Roles
Jose Altuve2 days ago

Willing To Move To Outfield
Ryan Pressly2 days ago

Traded To Cubs After Waiving No-Trade Clause
Seattle Seahawks2 days ago

Seahawks Hiring Klint Kubiak As Offensive Coordinator
Zach Ertz2 days ago

Eclipses 100 Yards In NFC Title Game
Spencer Knight2 days ago

Starts For Florida Sunday
Adin Hill2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back Sunday
Tennesse Titans2 days ago

Titans Hire Dave Ziegler As Assistant GM
Dallas Cowboys2 days ago

Mike Zimmer Likely Retiring From NFL
Aaron Rodgers2 days ago

Has Interest In Returning To Jets
Carlos Correa2 days ago

Fully Healthy Entering Spring Training
Cristian Javier2 days ago

Targeting Return After All-Star Break
Alex Bregman3 days ago

A "Long Shot" To Return To Houston
Brandon Nimmo3 days ago

Still Dealing With Plantar Fasciitis
Lance McCullers Jr.3 days ago

Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers Jr. Will Not Be Ready For Opening Day
DK Metcalf3 days ago

Could Be On Trade Block
San Francisco 49ers3 days ago

Robert Saleh Officially Hired As 49ers Defensive Coordinator
Noah Schultz3 days ago

Invited To Spring Training
Max Scherzer3 days ago

Mets Have Interest In Reunion With Max Scherzer
Pete Alonso3 days ago

Meets With The Angels
Dallas Cowboys4 days ago

Cowboys Promote Brian Schottenheimer To Head Coach
Chicago Bears4 days ago

Antwaan Randle El Signed By Chicago
Chicago Bears4 days ago

Bears Bringing On Al Harris
Drew Thorpe4 days ago

Likely To Miss Start Of Spring Training
Kyren Williams4 days ago

Rams May Be Open To Extension With Kyren Williams
Jalen Hurts4 days ago

Good To Go Against Commanders
Dallas Goedert4 days ago

Says He's Playing In NFC Championship
Ronald Acuña Jr.4 days ago

Ronald Acuna Jr. Expected To Miss First Month Of The Season
Alex Bregman4 days ago

Astros, Cubs Showing Significant Interest In Alex Bregman
Tanner Scott5 days ago

Will Share Closing Duties
Yordan Alvarez5 days ago

Says He's 100 Percent
Spencer Strider5 days ago

Expected To Have Normal Spring Training
Alex Bregman5 days ago

Astros Talking With Alex Bregman Again
Ryan Pressly5 days ago

Cubs Close To Acquiring Ryan Pressly
Pete Alonso5 days ago

Deep In Talks With Blue Jays

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP